IDP Improvements: Moves to Make Before Week Seven

Week seven can be challenging to navigate with seven teams on a bye. Clearly, we must do what we can to make it through this week unscathed and focus on winning the championship, but not wholly at the expense of ensuring we remain in contention for seasons to come.

Today’s article highlights some of the young players I suggest trying to acquire with one eye on the future.

Dorian Williams, LB BUF – ADD

In last week’s article, we suggested you add Tyrel Dodson following the injury to Matt Milano. However, we also warned Dodson may not have an every-down role because 2023 third-round pick Williams logged a season-high 36% of the available defensive snaps once Milano exited the Buffalo Bills’ loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Bills rookie LB Dorian Williams (#42) had some nice moments stepping in for Matt Milano.

Here's a nice track and tackle and a good snap in coverage getting the PBU. pic.twitter.com/M91fGtWfaj

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 10, 2023

What we didn’t expect was the clear favoritism shown toward the rookie in week six, as he out-snapped Dodson by 65 snaps to ten as the Bills edged out the New York Giants in a surprisingly close encounter.

If Williams continues to earn even close to the 84% snap share in future games, he immediately enters LB4 territory with the potential to climb higher. Milano and Bernard remain favorites to open 2024 as the full-time linebackers for the Bills, but Williams’ future looks bright.

Leonard Floyd, EDGE BUF – SELL HIGH

Floyd has been one of football’s most efficient pass rushers this year. The 31-year-old has registered seven sacks and forced a fumble in his last six games.

However, he has done this while playing against some of the weakest offensive lines in the league, including the Washington Commanders, the New York Giants, and the New York Jets. Those three teams rank first, second, and fourth in sacks allowed.

Furthermore, Floyd has produced those seven sacks despite managing only 16 pressures. His 44% pressure-to-sack conversion rate will not be sustainable over a larger sample size. The average rate among qualifying edge rushers was 15.2% in 2023 (minimum 100 snaps.)

Floyd’s matchup remains somewhat favorable vs New England this weekend, beyond which things become more difficult as he faces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Philadelphia Eagles, and the Dallas Cowboys.

Floyd remains embroiled in a deep edge rusher rotation for the Bills. Von Miller’s role has increased as he returns to full health, Gregory Rousseau is healthy once again, and A.J. Epenesa is playing some of the best football of his career.

Ivan Pace, LB MIN – BUY LOW

Pace had IDP enthusiasts extremely excited at the start of the season. The undrafted free agent quickly earned a significant role, beating out second-year player Brian Asamoah to partner Jordan Hicks in the heart of the Minnesota Vikings’ defense.

Unfortunately, Pace’s role has decreased over the last month. In week two against the Philadelphia Eagles, he had a 79% snap share. Last week against the Chicago Bears, he had only 12 snaps or an 18% snap share. His production has decreased as a result.

I remain high on Pace’s dynasty outlook and suggest testing the waters with fantasy managers who may be disillusioned with Pace’s lack of progress. Jordan Hicks is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent once his contract expires in 2023.

Calijah Kancey, DT TB – BUY LOW

Let’s be clear: there’s only one Jalen Carter. We cannot compare any other rookie defensive tackle to the accomplishments of the young Eagles phenomenon. However, if you’re looking for affordable interior help from a guy who can develop into a difference-maker, Kancey should be near the top of your list.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers fell in love with Kancey’s athleticism, making him the 19th overall selection in the 2023 draft. His performance in the 40-yard dash got draftniks particularly excited.

Pittsburgh's Calijah Kancey ran an official 4.67-second 40-yard dash, the fastest time recorded by a defensive tackle at the NFL Combine since 2003.

Kancey ranks 2nd among defensive tackles on @MoveTheSticks' latest top 50 big board (30th overall). pic.twitter.com/1xyYoi1SYc

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) March 2, 2023

Unfortunately, a calf injury suffered during the preseason slowed Kancey’s progress. Still, it was encouraging to see him return to the line-up against Detroit last week, immediately leapfrogging three other players at the position in snap share and generating a team-high six pressures, including his first career sack.

First career sack for Calijah Kancey!

Congrats, @CKancey8 #H2P » @NFL » @Buccaneers pic.twitter.com/RBHuta8a7p

— Pitt Football (@Pitt_FB) October 16, 2023

If the youngster manages to string together a few more games like last week, then this dip in value won’t last long:

Dynasty League Football’s ranking history comparison tool.

Conclusion

If you loved an NFL player during the draft but missed out on them during your fantasy draft, revisit the idea of a trade now to see if their manager has become too impatient too quickly. You may know that seven games are too few to judge a rookie, but it always amazes me how easily some managers forget this.