2024 Rookie Bust Mock Draft (Pre-Draft Edition): Round Three

The rookie bust mock drafts are one of our favorite things to do at DLF each year, so why not make them even weirder this off-season!?! These unique drafts are usually designed to show who we think has the highest likelihood to bust due to their landing spot, draft capital, or ADP. Today, we’re going to start a series looking at this 2024 rookie class prior to the NFL Draft. One player was drafted at a time based on their risk of being a bust due to their likely draft capital or ADP in an upcoming dynasty rookie draft. The top selection was the player in the top 36 who could carry the single greatest amount of risk. In other words, they have the highest likelihood to bust due to their future draft capital or ADP. In other words, the last player taken is the safest and the first carries the most risk. All players had to be taken off our list of the top 36 rookies, so that’s as follows:

Marvin Harrison, Jr
Malik Nabers
Rome Odunze
Brock Bowers
Brian Thomas
Xavier Worthy
Adonai Mitchell
Troy Franklin
Caleb Williams
Ladd McConkey
Trey Benson
Keon Coleman
Jonathan Brooks
Jayden Daniels
Drake Maye
Jaylen Wright
Braelon Allen
Ja’Tavion Sanders
Blake Corum
Xavier Legette
Ja’Lynn Polk
Malachai Corley
Ricky Pearsall
Roman Wilson
Devontez Walker
MarShawn Lloyd
Jalen McMillan
Will Shipley
JJ McCarthy
Bucky Irving
Audric Estime
Bo Nix
Michael Penix
Ray Davis
Isaac Guerendo
Brenden Rice

Make sure you check out round one here and round two right here.  Today, we finish up with round three. These players are the safest of the bunch and really have the lowest chance of busting. The math on rookie picks is pretty simple – the further down you go, the higher the bust rate. While the top picks are never “sure things,” we certainly see hit rates within that group a lot higher than we do in the second round, where it seems to be full of landmines each and every year. Let’s finish up the pre-draft edition with the players who look like they have the highest floors and lowest chance of wasting your precious rookie pick based on their projected rookie draft slot. Essentially, these players look like “value picks” based on their current pre-draft ADP.

3.01 = Jonathon Brooks, RB Texas

Brooks broke out in 2023 after spending most of his career playing behind Bijan Robinson. While he’s not without his faults, he was very productive and looks like he has the skill set of a lead NFL runner. Getting one of the top running backs (or even the top one) at the end of round one is a rarity but that seems like where we are since the draft is so full of elite-level wide receiver prospects.

3.02 = Ricky Pearsall, WR Florida

Getting what looks to be a reliable PPR slot receiver deep in the second round seems like a pretty safe bet. Pearsall showed flashes both at Arizona State and Florida and seems to just know how to get open. While he has nowhere near the ceiling of some other prospects in this class, he does seem to have a pretty high floor, making him one of the safer picks in rookie drafts this year.

3.03 = MarShawn Lloyd, RB USC

Lloyd likely projects as a backup in the NFL but he could have a chance at a starting job eventually if he lands in the right spot. He makes this list because at this point he’s looking like a third round rookie pick. Getting running backs who at least have a chance to be good in the third round is rarely a shot not worth taking and while he’s not a sure thing, he seems like he has an NFL-caliber skill set.

3.04 = Keon Coleman, WR FSU

His athleticism score at the NFL Draft combine (35th at the position) has thrown some cold water on his draft stock. However, Coleman has shown a knack for the end zone and looks like a player who could be a bit of a late bloomer. He looked like a sure-fire first round rookie pick not too long ago but now looks like he could slip into round two. If that happens, this looks like a pretty solid bargain to me with a lot of the risk being taken away the further he’s pushed down draft boards.

3.05 = Michael Penix, QB WASH

While much of the attention is going to be on Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and even JJ McCarthy, Penix is still intriguing, especially when you consider you won’t have to spend near the draft capital to get him. There are serious durability questions but this is also a player who threw for almost 10,000 yards the past two seasons. Ten. Thousand. If a team moves up to take him in round one, he’s going to move up draft boards. However, as a late third round pick in conventional formats or a late second in superflex leagues, he looks like a bargain at the moment.

3.06 = Jalen McMillan, WR WASH

Much of the attention in the draft is going to go to the likes of Marvin Harrison Jr, Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze. However, the next couple of tiers offer a lot to like and McMillan is squarely in the mix there. He only played in seven games last year but had over 1,000 yards and nine touchdowns in 2022. His pre-draft workouts were average but he projects as a better than average slot receiver who you should be able to get in round three – that’s not bad draft capital and very little risk for a player with this kind of upside.

3.07 = Rome Odunze, WR WASH

Speaking of Husky receivers, we get to the cream of the crop here. Harrison and Nabers are likely going to go 1-2 at the position but the WR3 this year is far from your usual WR3. A 92/1,640/13 season that featured ten different 100-yard games just proved how good he really is. While anyone can bust, Odunze legitimately has a chance to be the best receiver from this class and you won’t need to spend the 1.01 or the 1.02 to get him.

3.08 = Devontez Walker. WR UNC

I’ve said it repeatedly all off-season – this is my favorite mid-to-late round rookie pick this year. Walker’s college career was far from ordinary and he doesn’t have the body of work you’d like. However, his skill-set translates to the next level and he looks like a great pick deep in round two or early in round three. His NFL Draft combine scores show he has real talent that could be untapped.

3.09 = Caleb Williams, QB USC

There are never any sure things and I honestly don’t believe Williams is anywhere near Patrick Mahomes in terms of his ability. However, he does look like a player who has a pretty high floor and should be a pretty solid QB1 for a number of seasons. The other quarterbacks in this class all have some serious question marks but Williams really doesn’t have many. He looks like he should at least be a lower-end QB1 moving forward.

3.10 = Trey Benson, RB FSU

Most have Brooks as the RB1 in the class but I like Benson a little more. His pre-draft workouts have solidified his talent and he looks like one of the few players in this draft who could be a bona fide starter in the league. Getting him at the end of round one would be an easy pick for me and those holding out hope to get him there have to hope he doesn’t land in a spot like Dallas that will vault him up the draft board.

3.11 = Malik Nabers, WR LSU

Some believe Nabers is better than Marvin Harrison and the fact nobody really puts up any kind of vehement argument against that sentiment likely tells you all you need to know. It’s just really hard to see Nabers being a bust with his combination of athletic ability and playmaking prowess. His landing spot will be critical to his true value but even his floor seems like a “set it and forget it” type of receiver.

3.12 = Marvin Harrison, Jr, WR OSU

I know having what looks to be the top position player as the safest bet in the draft seems to be counterproductive since the 1.01 holds so much value. However, I just don’t see a scenario where Harrison (if he remains healthy) is a bust in the NFL. He has all the tools, pedigree, experience and attitude to be one the game’s next great players.

Enough of the talk and pre-draft analysis. Let’s do this thing and find these guys a home!