Strategy in Action: Win Now

Ryan McDowell

Last month when I kicked off the April version of the DLF Mock Drafts, the series of dynasty startup mocks used to formulate our monthly average draft position data, I decided I should once again employ a variety of strategies in team building.

A little bit of background information first. I first came upon this rather simple idea late in the off-season of 2016. In the August mock drafts, I chose six varying startup draft strategies and tried them all while participating in each of the monthly mock drafts. My plan was to detail each approach in a series of article, but eventually I ran out of time before the 2016 NFL season kicked off. The timing all around was poor on my part since most drafts of this type had wrapped anyway.

Now, with more time and startup draft season right around the corner, I chose April’s mocks to try the venture with one more time. In this series of articles, I’ll explain the plan I entered with, players I chose and how the plan might have changed along the way. I’ll also attempt to objectively point out the pros and cons of each tactic as a potential team building blueprint.

Before I examine the next mock draft, let me explain some ground rules I gave myself. First, I chose a strategy for each league before setup, meaning I was not aware of my draft position beforehand. I also gave myself an out of sorts, acknowledging that I would not necessarily stick to the predetermined plan if a huge value was staring me in the face.

The Strategy

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In this mock draft, I went with the tried and true “win now” approach. Years ago, when dynasty was just becoming popular, essentially every player used this method and “punting” was unheard of at this time. Obviously, the name of the strategy says it all. When building a win now team, you are approaching your startup draft more like a redraft, hoping to build a team that can compete and win a title immediately. While that is not intentionally at the expense of future seasons, that is often a byproduct. Drafting this type of team, you largely ignore player age and worry more about short-term production.

The Draft

Here’s how my mock draft went:

1.05 Julio Jones, WR ATL

2.08 Todd Gurley, RB LAR

3.05 Jordy Nelson, WR GB

4.08 DeMarco Murray, RB TEN

5.05 Cam Newton, QB CAR

6.08 Emmanuel Sanders, WR DEN

7.05 Greg Olsen, TE CAR

8.08 DeSean Jackson, WR TB

9.05 Theo Riddick, RB DET

10.08 Larry Fitzgerald, WR ARZ

11.05 Paul Perkins, RB NYG

12.08 Kenny Stills, WR MIA

13.05 Devontae Booker, RB DEN

14.08 CJ Fiedorowicz, TE HOU

15.05 Blake Bortles, QB JAX

16.08 Marshawn Lynch, RB OAK

17.05 Ted Ginn, WR NO

18.08 Robby Anderson, WR NYJ

19.05 Torrey Smith, WR PHI

20.08 Jason Witten, TE DAL

Starting with Jones is an easy decision no matter the strategy, as he continues to put up monster numbers and could serve as the cornerstone piece for any dynasty roster. I knew I wanted at least one early running back, so I followed that up with grabbing Gurley in the second round, despite his disappointing second season.

From that point, I continued to look for high-end producers regardless of the players’ age or how much time they presumably have remaining in their respective careers. Adding Nelson, Murray, Newton, Sanders and Olsen gives me five players I can plug into my weekly starting lineup without much thought.

Late in the draft, I thought three of my selections were particularly interesting. First, I added the veteran running back Lynch, who came out of retirement and is expected to suit up for the Raiders. Taking advantage of the news cycle and drafting a player like this is something every owner should be willing to do regardless of their specific strategy if for no other reason than to flip him as he gains value. Next, players like Ginn and Smith have very little dynasty value, yet both could serve as fantasy starters if things break the right way.

The Lineup

In these mock drafts, the supposed starting lineups consist of one each from the four key fantasy positions; quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end, along with four flex spots, which could be a RB, WR or TE.

QB- Newton

RB- Gurley

WR- Jones

TE- Olsen

FLEX- Nelson

FLEX- Murray

FLEX- Jackson

FLEX- Fitzgerald

It should be no surprise that this strategy has resulted in the strongest starting lineup of the entire activity. This lineup has no obvious holes and if any of the players listed above falter of suffer injury, the roster includes quality depth like Riddick, Lynch and Stills who could serve as fantasy starters.

The Pros

Clearly, the best thing about a roster and lineup such as this is the opportunity to compete immediately and potentially even be the favorite to win the league. While the Productive Struggle and Fake Punt strategies have risen in popularity, the number of owners actually trying to win with a veteran roster from the outset has greatly decreased.

The Cons

The downside of this roster is also quite evident. We have all been warned by our grandparents about putting all of our eggs in one basket. That’s exactly what has happened and the basket is the 2017 season. With this team, anything less than a championship in the opening season would be a disappointment. In fact, even if this team did win a title in year one, there would still be some major questions entering that off-season. Each veteran player in that starting lineup is now a year closer to retirement and for some of them, 2017 could even be the swan song.

The Next Steps

Of course, the main priority would be to do whatever it takes to bring home a title that first year, so adding depth and filling in any gaps (backup quarterback, maybe?) would be tops on the list. Also, due to the overall strategy and the way the draft played out, this team has very little if any youth to fall back on beginning in 2018. Because of this, I’d ensure I was active on the waiver wire to build up my team for the future as well.

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ryan mcdowell