Rob Willette: Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Explained
Welcome to another installment in our new series of articles where DLF rankers not only explain their dynasty fantasy football rankings, but also include a number of the 2023 rookie draft pick selections so you can see how we each, individually, value those dynasty rookie picks in comparison to players as if it were a dynasty fantasy football startup draft.
DLF has always offered our readers multiple sets of dynasty fantasy football rankings from different experts to provide a broad view of player rankings. With many different strategies for building a successful dynasty team, no single set of rankings could possibly meet the needs of every coach. Instead, we’ve long subscribed to the idea of our experts providing their own individual rankings, ultimately giving our readers the opportunity to gravitate to a particular expert who closely matches their own style of ranking or, perhaps, instead choosing to use an average ranking across all experts. Valuation variability between players in the rankings can often be large but that variability can provide opportunity as well. Our DLF expert rankers should always be able to explain why they are higher, or lower, on a particular player.
While explaining our rankings will provide greater insight alone, we are also including a number of 2023 rookie draft selections interspersed with the players so you can get a better idea of how each of our rankers values those selections when compared to existing veteran players. As would be expected, you will find a great degree of variability in the valuation of these picks as well depending on the style of the ranker. Each draft class has its own quality and depth and, depending on how the ranker values that quality and depth, individual rookie selections will appear earlier or later on the list.
A note about the tables. The Rank column indicates this ranker’s personal rankings. The AVG column indicates the consensus rankings value at the time these rankings were created. The “+/-” column indicates how much higher or lower the ranker is to the consensus average.
Each week we will provide rankings for 120 players and 2023 rookie draft picks, alternating between 1QB and Superflex rankings. For a deeper list of rankings, please visit our consensus dynasty fantasy football rankings.
Be sure to catch all of the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Explained series.
1QB DYNASTY FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS: ROB WILLETTE
Sitting down to rank fantasy football players from a dynasty perspective is a personal process for each individual. Unlike redraft, you have to take into consideration a variety of factors. Running backs can age out quickly. If your favorite receiver is attached to an aging quarterback, it is something to take into account when delineating between Player A and Player B. To make it more complex, situations can change in a hurry. Cooper Kupp went from a strong performer to an unstoppable force once the Rams made a move for Matthew Stafford.
The quickly shifting tides of the NFL are always something I look to take into account when ranking players. The trade market is as hot as ever with quarterbacks – the engine of any productive fantasy offense – on the move each off-season. This helps me boil rankings down to two main questions:
- Is this player one who has the talent to last as an impact player?
- Do I trust their organization to wisely utilize them and build around them?
Of course, neither of these questions comes with easy answers. It is an entirely subjective exercise, and while consensus opinion can certainly influence any individual, I believe it is important to make rankings your own. After all, above everything else, fantasy football should be fun. To the ranks!
Rankings: 1 – 24
Rank | AVG | + / – | Name | Pos | Team | Age |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 | 0 | Justin Jefferson | WR | MIN | 23 |
2 | 2 | 0 | Ja’Marr Chase | WR | CIN | 22 |
3 | 3 | 0 | AJ Brown | WR | PHI | 25 |
4 | 4 | 0 | CeeDee Lamb | WR | DAL | 23 |
5 | 5 | 0 | Jaylen Waddle | WR | MIA | 24 |
6 | 2023 Rookie 1.01 | |||||
7 | 14 | 7 | Garrett Wilson | WR | NYJ | 22 |
8 | 10 | 2 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET | 23 |
9 | 6 | -3 | Breece Hall | RB | NYJ | 21 |
10 | 17 | 7 | Chris Olave | WR | NO | 22 |
11 | 9 | -2 | Tyreek Hill | WR | MIA | 28 |
12 | 7 | -5 | Jonathan Taylor | RB | IND | 24 |
13 | 22 | 9 | Drake London | WR | ATL | 21 |
14 | 13 | -1 | Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF | 26 |
15 | 20 | 5 | DK Metcalf | WR | SEA | 25 |
16 | 8 | -8 | Tee Higgins | WR | CIN | 24 |
17 | 19 | 2 | Deebo Samuel | WR | SF | 27 |
18 | 12 | -6 | Saquon Barkley | RB | NYG | 25 |
19 | 16 | -3 | Travis Etienne | RB | JAC | 23 |
20 | 15 | -5 | Davante Adams | WR | LV | 30 |
21 | 2023 Rookie 1.02 | |||||
22 | 21 | -1 | Stefon Diggs | WR | BUF | 29 |
23 | 27 | 4 | Chris Godwin | WR | TB | 26 |
24 | 11 | -13 | Kenneth Walker | RB | SEA | 22 |
Two players I am higher than the consensus on are Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. I have them both placed in the first round. They fit the mold of players I believe are supremely talented; both had elite rookie seasons by many metrics despite an iffy situation around them. I will bank on these two only increasing in value as their teams look to bolster their respective offenses.
In a one quarterback format, there are no signal callers ranked here. While I have moved many of the elite quarterbacks up my rankings due to the separation they have created from the second tier, they are still not valuable enough in this format to pass on the elite talents at running back and wide receiver. They will show up soon enough.
There are really no surprises at the top. Justin Jefferson has posted three elite seasons and is still just 23 years old. Ja’Marr Chase looks to be the only talent who can rival Jefferson in both talent and situation. These are the two pillars of the dynasty format at the wide receiver position.
Due to how premier of a prospect I feel Bijan Robinson is, I am comfortable sliding the 1.01 into the middle of round one. Some may not have the appetite to take a risk on an unproven talent so highly, but I am comfortable taking a big swing with Robinson. I feel he can storm into the NFL and become one of its elite backs from day one.
Round 2 features a host of veterans. It can be risky investing too much in players approaching 30; however, a championship in year one counts the same as a championship in year five. I try not to discount veterans too much, even though I will certainly utilize age as a key tiebreaker. The likes of Austin Ekeler, Stefon Diggs, etc. can still be key contributors to contenders. This is where team makeup really matters. If you feel your team is a few years away, these are sell candidates as a contender will be very interested.
Rankings: 25 – 48
Rank | AVG | + / – | Name | Pos | Team | Age |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
25 | 23 | -2 | Cooper Kupp | WR | LAR | 29 |
26 | 18 | -8 | Austin Ekeler | RB | LAC | 27 |
27 | 38 | 11 | DeVonta Smith | WR | PHI | 24 |
28 | 25 | -3 | Josh Allen | QB | BUF | 26 |
29 | 35 | 6 | Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | NE | 24 |
30 | 24 | -6 | Josh Jacobs | RB | LV | 24 |
31 | 28 | -3 | Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | 27 |
32 | 2023 Rookie 1.03 | |||||
33 | 59 | 26 | Brandon Aiyuk | WR | SF | 24 |
34 | 41 | 7 | Najee Harris | RB | PIT | 24 |
35 | 34 | -1 | Jalen Hurts | QB | PHI | 24 |
36 | 40 | 4 | Tony Pollard | RB | DAL | 25 |
37 | 2023 Rookie 1.04 | |||||
38 | 45 | 7 | Travis Kelce | TE | KC | 33 |
39 | 31 | -8 | Joe Mixon | RB | CIN | 26 |
40 | 30 | -10 | Nick Chubb | RB | CLE | 27 |
41 | 32 | -9 | Kyle Pitts | TE | ATL | 22 |
42 | 2023 Rookie 1.05 | |||||
43 | 33 | -10 | Michael Pittman | WR | IND | 25 |
44 | 44 | 0 | Justin Herbert | QB | LAC | 24 |
45 | 29 | -16 | Mark Andrews | TE | BAL | 27 |
46 | 26 | -20 | D’Andre Swift | RB | DET | 24 |
47 | 50 | 3 | Lamar Jackson | QB | BAL | 26 |
48 | 46 | -2 | Terry McLaurin | WR | WAS | 27 |
This range features two more receivers I am higher on than the consensus: Brandon Aiyuk and DeVonta Smith. Had Aiyuk not taken a sojourn into Kyle Shanahan’s doghouse, I feel the perception of him would be much different. He really took off in year three and the 49ers offense is absolutely humming right now. He looks like a premier talent. DeVonta Smith really took a step in year two and appears to have the perfect complement across from him in AJ Brown. The Eagles are an offense we want pieces of and Smith is a key part of their future.
Tony Pollard will have a fascinating ADP journey this off-season. He is a free agent coming off a postseason injury. There have been rumblings the Cowboys will franchise him, though this would create a massive investment into their running back position. Pollard is ready to have his own backfield and has already shown RB1 upside.
Despite his age, Travis Kelce remains TE1. At a position with only one required starter, you can worry less about negatives against him and simply enjoy the production until the wheels fall off. Elsewhere at tight end, I have concerns about Mark Andrews with Greg Roman gone. Roman’s offense was very tight end friendly, and while I certainly believe Andrews is an excellent player, the change in system could make 2021 his career season.
Rankings: 49 – 72
Rank | AVG | + / – | Name | Pos | Team | Age |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
49 | 37 | -12 | Derrick Henry | RB | TEN | 29 |
50 | 49 | -1 | JK Dobbins | RB | BAL | 24 |
51 | 2023 Rookie 1.06 | |||||
52 | 54 | 2 | Jerry Jeudy | WR | DEN | 23 |
53 | 47 | -6 | DJ Moore | WR | CAR | 25 |
54 | 48 | -6 | Joe Burrow | QB | CIN | 26 |
55 | 36 | -19 | Treylon Burks | WR | TEN | 22 |
56 | 2023 Rookie 1.07 | |||||
57 | 39 | -18 | Javonte Williams | RB | DEN | 22 |
58 | 63 | 5 | Trevor Lawrence | QB | JAC | 23 |
59 | 52 | -7 | Aaron Jones | RB | GB | 28 |
60 | 43 | -17 | Marquise Brown | WR | ARI | 25 |
61 | 61 | 0 | Jahan Dotson | WR | WAS | 22 |
62 | 60 | -2 | Justin Fields | QB | CHI | 23 |
63 | 2023 Rookie 1.08 | |||||
64 | 75 | 11 | Dallas Goedert | TE | PHI | 28 |
65 | 51 | -14 | George Pickens | WR | PIT | 21 |
66 | 70 | 4 | Kyler Murray | QB | ARI | 25 |
67 | 79 | 12 | James Cook | RB | BUF | 23 |
68 | 56 | -12 | Alvin Kamara | RB | NO | 27 |
69 | 57 | -12 | Christian Watson | WR | GB | 23 |
70 | 78 | 8 | Deshaun Watson | QB | CLE | 27 |
71 | 58 | -13 | TJ Hockenson | TE | MIN | 25 |
72 | 86 | 14 | Calvin Ridley | WR | JAC | 28 |
This range features a host of running backs with ample question marks. Derrick Henry may simply be an alien who stiff arms defenders into the next county until he is 48. He is also a bruising runner with tread on the tires within an offense which appears poised to undergo a transition. I would be hesitant to invest too heavily. Alvin Kamara rebounded late in the season, though he still has a looming court case and the offense has lost a lot of its explosiveness. Javonte Williams has looked great, though it is possible 2023 is a lost season after a knee injury which included serious damage in addition to the ACL. I am not comfortable taking him at ADP.
Checking in at #72 is Calvin Ridley. With nearly two full years off, it is tough to say how Ridley will acclimate himself into the Jacksonville offense. However, he was a very productive player in Atlanta and there are targets to be had in Jacksonville, even if Evan Engram re-signs. It keeps him within the top half of drafts; the upside is worth chasing.
Rankings: 73 – 96
Rank | AVG | + / – | Name | Pos | Team | Age |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 | 72 | -1 | Mike Williams | WR | LAC | 28 |
74 | 42 | -32 | Dalvin Cook | RB | MIN | 27 |
75 | 71 | -4 | AJ Dillon | RB | GB | 24 |
76 | 55 | -21 | Jameson Williams | WR | DET | 21 |
77 | 65 | -12 | Amari Cooper | WR | CLE | 28 |
78 | 2023 Rookie 1.09 | |||||
79 | 2023 Rookie 1.10 | |||||
80 | 97 | 17 | Darren Waller | TE | LV | 30 |
81 | 62 | -19 | Diontae Johnson | WR | PIT | 26 |
82 | 64 | -18 | Mike Evans | WR | TB | 29 |
83 | 53 | -30 | Dameon Pierce | RB | HOU | 22 |
84 | 68 | -16 | Christian Kirk | WR | JAC | 26 |
85 | 67 | -18 | Miles Sanders | RB | PHI | 25 |
86 | 66 | -20 | Rashod Bateman | WR | BAL | 23 |
87 | 69 | -18 | George Kittle | TE | SF | 29 |
88 | 74 | -14 | David Montgomery | RB | CHI | 25 |
89 | 77 | -12 | Courtland Sutton | WR | DEN | 27 |
90 | 2023 Rookie 1.11 | |||||
91 | 95 | 4 | Tyler Lockett | WR | SEA | 30 |
92 | 2023 Rookie 1.12 | |||||
93 | 83 | -10 | Ezekiel Elliott | RB | DAL | 27 |
94 | 121 | 27 | Isiah Pacheco | RB | KC | 23 |
95 | 2023 Rookie 2.01 | |||||
96 | 93 | -3 | James Conner | RB | ARI | 27 |
There are a lot of players in the section I deviate from the consensus on. Dalvin Cook’s future is murky given his cap hit and the fact he took a step back in 2022. While he can still play, he is no longer the dynamic playmaker he was in his prime. I would rather be out a year early as opposed to a year late on him. Diontae Johnson had one of the stranger seasons we can remember. Despite a ton of targets and receptions, his donut in the touchdown column made him a non-factor. We can expect this to balance out of course, but I am more bullish on George Pickens becoming a bigger factor despite his own flaws.
It is tough to bank on day three backs remaining relevant, which is why I am lower on Dameon Pierce than most. I feel he can play; I question whether the Texans want to commit to him as the lead back long-term. Perhaps hypocritically, I have Pacheco much higher than expected. His skills looked like a great match for the Chiefs’ offense. I settled with them both in a similar tier given the early returns with long-term question marks.
Rankings: 97 – 120
Rank | AVG | + / – | Name | Pos | Team | Age |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
97 | 138 | 41 | Evan Engram | TE | JAC | 28 |
98 | 92 | -6 | Alec Pierce | WR | IND | 22 |
99 | 2023 Rookie 2.01 | |||||
100 | 117 | 17 | Nico Collins | WR | HOU | 23 |
101 | 98 | -3 | David Njoku | TE | CLE | 26 |
102 | 2023 Rookie 2.02 | |||||
103 | 106 | 3 | Khalil Herbert | RB | CHI | 24 |
104 | 76 | -28 | DeAndre Hopkins | WR | ARI | 30 |
105 | 80 | -25 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR | KC | 26 |
106 | 85 | -21 | Rachaad White | RB | TB | 24 |
107 | 2023 Rookie 2.03 | |||||
108 | 90 | -18 | Antonio Gibson | RB | WAS | 24 |
109 | 94 | -15 | Pat Freiermuth | TE | PIT | 24 |
110 | 2023 Rookie 2.04 | |||||
111 | 81 | -30 | Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | 29 |
112 | 87 | -25 | Leonard Fournette | RB | TB | 28 |
113 | 101 | -12 | Wan’Dale Robinson | WR | NYG | 22 |
114 | 2023 Rookie 2.05 | |||||
115 | 89 | -26 | Tua Tagovailoa | QB | MIA | 24 |
116 | 82 | -34 | Keenan Allen | WR | LAC | 30 |
117 | 2023 Rookie 2.06 | |||||
118 | 116 | -2 | Elijah Mitchell | RB | SF | 24 |
119 | 109 | -10 | Kareem Hunt | RB | CLE | 27 |
120 | 96 | -24 | Chase Claypool | WR | CHI | 24 |
This is a section where I will prefer many of those rookie picks. It is the classic boat versus mystery box dilemma, but these boats are not exactly yachts. I am impressed by the depth of this class and will invest where I can.
Evan Engram is someone I am bullish on. He has always had the tools, and while his overall line was skewed by one massive game, he looked comfortable in Jacksonville and both sides appear committed to extending their partnership. He could be the classic tight end who breaks out during his second contract.
There are rumblings Leonard Fournette could be a cap casualty after an extremely inefficient season. Fournette is on the back end of his career and his future is a huge question mark. Those are not the type of runners I will have many shares of. Conversely, Khalil Herbert is a back whose value could soar if the Bears let David Montgomery walk in free agency and do little else at the position. I’d throw some darts to see his price point before we get into the meat of the off-season.
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Profile: Brenden Rice, WR USC - March 25, 2024
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