Matt Price: Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Explained

Welcome to another installment in our new series of articles where DLF rankers not only explain their dynasty fantasy football rankings, but also include a number of the 2023 rookie draft pick selections so you can see how we each, individually, value those dynasty rookie picks in comparison to players as if it were a dynasty fantasy football startup draft.

Be sure to catch all of the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Explained series.

DLF has always offered our readers multiple sets of dynasty fantasy football rankings from different experts to provide a broad view of player rankings. With many different strategies for building a successful dynasty team, no single set of rankings could possibly meet the needs of every coach. Instead, we’ve long subscribed to the idea of our experts providing their own individual rankings, ultimately giving our readers the opportunity to gravitate to a particular expert who closely matches their own style of ranking or, perhaps, instead choosing to use an average ranking across all experts. Valuation variability between players in the rankings can often be large but that variability can provide opportunity as well. Our DLF expert rankers should always be able to explain why they are higher, or lower, on a particular player.

While explaining our rankings will provide greater insight alone, we are also including a number of 2023 rookie draft selections interspersed with the players so you can get a better idea of how each of our rankers values those selections when compared to existing veteran players. As would be expected, you will find a great degree of variability in the valuation of these picks as well depending on the style of the ranker. Each draft class has its own quality and depth and, depending on how the ranker values that quality and depth, individual rookie selections will appear earlier or later on the list.

A note about the tables. The Rank column indicates this ranker’s personal rankings. The AVG column indicates the consensus rankings value at the time these rankings were created. The “+/-” column indicates how much higher or lower the ranker is to the consensus average.

Each week we will provide rankings for 120 players and 2023 rookie draft picks, alternating between 1QB and Superflex rankings. For a deeper list of rankings, please visit our consensus dynasty fantasy football rankings.

SUPERFLEX DYNASTY FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS: MATT PRICE

Dynasty rankings are more of an art form than a science. In redraft, it’s easy to start with a list of the top producers from the previous season and then adjust based on projections for the current season. In dynasty, there is no standard way of doing things. Some people rank based on a two or three-year window of production, while others are more concerned with age or trade value. Because of the many ways we can rank players in dynasty, it’s essential to know what the ranker you are following values most in a dynasty asset.

I rank based on youth, production, and positional scarcity. In most leagues, those three things primarily drive trade value, and when all three align, you get an elite asset.

Rankings: 1 – 24

Rushing at the quarterback position provides a ceiling and a floor that are often much higher than quarterbacks with little to no production on the ground. Over the past five seasons, the QB1 overall has been either Patrick Mahomes (2018 and 2022), Josh Allen (2020 and 2021), or Lamar Jackson (2019). Jackson and Allen both average over 600 yards on the ground per season. Mahomes is a unicorn who seemingly throws for 5,000 yards or 40 touchdowns every season, which is about what it takes for a quarterback with negligible rushing production to get into the top five in any given season.

Jalen Hurts claimed the top spot in my superflex rankings this month primarily because of the combination of his rushing ability and the incredible offense Philadelphia has built around him. He is joined in the top tier by both Mahomes and Allen.

Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields are higher than consensus because of their elite rushing production. Fields finished as QB6 in fantasy last season despite averaging only 149.5 passing yards per game and 1.13 passing touchdowns per game. Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Trevor Lawrence don’t provide much rushing upside, but they can put up monster numbers through the air. These five quarterbacks make up my second tier.

My goal in superflex is to acquire two elite quarterbacks, which is why my top eight come from that position. Wide receiver is the second-most important position in superflex dynasty, making up my next two tiers. Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase are in a tier of their own. I slightly prefer Jefferson, but not enough to separate them. I’m tempted to put A.J. Brown in a tier of his own, but he’s close enough to the next four guys that he can be grouped alongside CeeDee Lamb, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and Jaylen Waddle. I appear to be significantly higher on Wilson and Olave than consensus, but it’s a no-brainer. Both produced incredibly well in their rookie seasons, are the unquestioned top receiving weapon on their teams, and will both have a better quarterback in 2023. Dak Prescott and Amon-Ra St. Brown also fall in this tier, with a break directly after the Sun God.

The final tier in the top 24 runs from the Rookie 1.01 (Bijan Robinson) down to Jonathan Taylor. Kyle Pitts is the most significant outlier in this section; if you know anything about me, you should expect that! I know it’s not rational, but I don’t care. Pitts is still the prospect we thought he was. He increased his target share from year one to year two with 27.2% in 2022, trailing only Mark Andrews at the position. Head Coach Arthur Smith elected to battle with the second-most run-heavy offense in the league in 2022, though, running the ball on 57.4% of plays. There wasn’t enough volume in the passing offense for Pitts despite being targeted often when the team did pass. The Falcons had just one game where a quarterback completed more than 20 passes and two games with eight or fewer pass completions. It’s difficult for any receiving weapon to thrive in that offense. Still, Pitts remains the most physically gifted tight end in the league at a position without many difference-makers. That makes Kyle Pitts a precious fantasy asset that hasn’t yet realized its full potential. However you viewed Pitts before the 2022 season, you should feel the same about him entering 2023.

At 22nd overall, we finally get to some veteran running backs with three in a row to end this first section. Running backs are the final piece of the puzzle for a contending team. Drafting them highly in a startup locks you into a win-now strategy, and I prefer more flexibility in my builds, which is why the best backs in the league aren’t ranked inside my top-20 dynasty assets. I’m unwilling to sink a ton of capital into a position with the most frequent injuries and the shortest shelf-life until my team is ready to go on a run.

Rankings: 25 – 48

The next group leads off with three straight rookie picks. I expect those picks to be the top three rookie quarterbacks in some order. For me, it would go Anthony Richardson, Bryce Young, and CJ Stroud. Stroud is the safest of the three but likely has the lowest ceiling. Richardson is the riskiest because he hasn’t developed as a passer yet, but he is the only one in this group with the top-5 ceiling we are looking for.

This group’s biggest outliers are players I am lower on than consensus. In the first three to five rounds of a startup draft, I am generally unwilling to select declining assets. There are exceptions to that rule, but they are few and far between. I suspect that’s where the disconnect lies with players like Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, and Davante Adams. You can win with these players and insulate them with youth, but selecting them in the second round is not a place I’m willing to go when building a team because it can lock you into a win-now strategy.

Kenneth Walker is A) a running back, B) isn’t involved in the passing game, and C) has been a player I’ve been consistently lower on than the consensus going back to the 2022 NFL pre-draft process. He’s just not a player I’m interested in building around.

I’m much lower on Deebo Samuel relative to consensus than I expected to be. I don’t get a warm fuzzy feeling about Samuel for several reasons related to his situation. I generally hate the “too many mouths to feed” argument often used when fading a player, but I think it’s relevant here. Samuel plays in one of the most talented offenses in the NFL, along with George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Christian McCaffery. To compound the issue, we have uncertainty at the quarterback position. If it’s Brock Purdy, Deebo didn’t fare too well. He missed weeks 15 -17, but in his other six games with Purdy (including the playoffs), Deebo had just one 100-yard receiving game and one receiving touchdown. Both came in the Wildcard round against Seattle. Purdy has not shown the ability to support multiple fantasy options each week. If it’s Trey Lance, we still question his ability to run the offense and support multiple fantasy weapons. There are just too many question marks with Deebo Samuel to consider ranking him 17 spots higher to align with consensus.

Rankings: 49 – 72

This section is where I am much higher than the consensus on several players. That starts with Marquise Brown. Through the first six games of the 2022 season, he was the WR5 overall in scoring. He suffered an injury, DeAndre Hopkins returned, and the team fell apart down the stretch, losing seven straight games to close out the season. When healthy and the primary target, Brown has produced WR1 level numbers.

Jahan Dotson is highly undervalued and I have him 20 spots above consensus, just below the 1.05. Dotson should be closer to second-year receivers like Christian Watson and Treylon Burks than to guys like Brandon Aiyuk and Courtland Sutton.

I have two Jaguars receivers higher than the consensus. After not playing football for two years, Calvin Ridley will return with a chip on his shoulder and has guaranteed 1,400 yards. Christian Kirk’s contract was the laughingstock of the 2022 free agency period, but Jacksonville had the last laugh. Kirk finished as the WR14 in 2022 and will likely never be valued correctly.

As someone who has never been high on Daniel Jones, I find it odd that I’m 16 spots higher than the consensus. He is a young quarterback who broke out last season with dust at wide receiver, has 700+ yard rushing upside, and has stability having just received a massive new contract. Jones is a valuable commodity in superflex dynasty. Geno Smith was the QB5 last season and just signed a new contract with the team that believed in him enough to hand over the keys to the kingdom in the wake of Russell Wilson’s departure. He deserves to be in this range, not two and a half rounds later. He’s a fringe QB1 in superflex.

We round out this section with two second-tier tight ends in prime situations to move up into the first tier. Both Goedert and Hockenson are a cut above the rest of the position.

Rankings: 73 – 96

This group is the opposite of the last. It’s filled with running backs either on the downswing of their careers or flawed prospects who have had some success but not enough to be confident in valuing them ahead of mid-late first-round rookie picks.

After a career-best season, Josh Jacobs will be back in Oakland on a franchise tag. Things will likely be similar in 2023 for him in terms of usage, but we have questions at quarterback and everywhere else on the team outside of Davante Adams and Darren Waller. It’s more likely that Javonte Williams won’t be back for Week 1, and it seems likely the Broncos will sign a higher-profile free agent or select a rookie to come in and be the guy until Williams can get back on the field. Will he have a full-time role at any point in 2023? I’m not sure.

Nick Chubb and Najee Harris are the most significant outliers in this group. Chubb likely has another back-end RB1 season in him, but at 27, his value has begun its decline. Kareem Hunt will no longer be there, but based on how the Browns have operated in the past, I’m skeptical that they will just give everything to Chubb and not bring in more backfield help or do something else like increase the workload of second-year back Jerome Ford. Najee Harris’ sophomore season was a disappointment relative to where he was being ranked before the 2022 season. I need to see some commitment to building up that awful offensive line before Im back in on Najee Harris, and by that time, he may already be aging out. Harris is 25 years old, despite only two seasons in the league. He’s less than a month younger than Josh Jacobs who is entering his fifth NFL season.

Other players well below consensus include Aaron Jones and Mike Evans. These players are entering the twilight of their careers, are playing alongside other younger up-and-coming players at the same position, and have uncertainty at quarterback. Players with these profiles carry more risk than I am willing to take on at elevated startup prices. I’d prefer to trade for these players in-season once their situation has been clarified and I have more information regarding how competitive my team will be. From a production standpoint, I think they will be fine in 2023 and perhaps 2024, but their trade value is about to fall off a cliff. If you aren’t competing in 2023, get them off your roster.

Lastly, I’ve always been higher than the consensus on Rondale Moore, which continues here. He’s the kind of player that can succeed with lesser quarterbacks, which is what he’ll have to do until Kyler Murray can rejoin the Cardinals. Moore just needs to stay healthy to realize his full potential.

Rankings: 97 – 120

This final section begins with more running backs past their prime and had relatively disappointing 2022 seasons. It feels a little strange to have old mainstays like Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon, and Dalvin Cook so far below consensus rankings, but I like to follow the mantra of “better to be out a year early than a year late.” These assets will likely be solid producers in 2023, but I’m getting whatever I can for them this offseason before their trade value completely tanks. One serious injury to these kinds of assets, and it’s over. Their value essentially goes to zero.

JuJu Smith-Schuster is also a colossal outlier below consensus. I am probably too low on him, but at this point, we know what he is; a low-ceiling big slot who will finish most seasons as a fantasy WR3. Even Patrick Mahomes and a Chiefs’ offense with a massive void at wide receiver couldn’t restore him to his former glory. He will have spike weeks, especially if he continues playing with Mahomes, but his future in Kansas City is uncertain. He signed a one-year “prove it” deal last offseason, and I’m not sure we can say he proved it enough to secure a long-term contract with the team.

Players that I’m higher on than consensus in this range include James Cook and Greg Dulcich. Both are second-year players who flashed at times during their rookie seasons and, at this early stage of the offseason, look to be in better situations than they were in 2022.

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Matt Price

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Senior writer and co-host of the DLF Dynasty podcast, the longest running dynasty focused podcast on the planet

Creator and Co-host of Dynasty Game night, the fantasy football game show.

Creator and host of the Zookeeper Stories podcast.

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