Eric Hardter: Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Explained

Welcome to another installment in our new series of articles where DLF rankers not only explain their dynasty fantasy football rankings, but also include a number of the 2023 rookie draft pick selections so you can see how we each, individually, value those dynasty rookie picks in comparison to players as if it were a dynasty fantasy football startup draft.

Be sure to catch all of the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Explained series.

DLF has always offered our readers multiple sets of dynasty fantasy football rankings from different experts to provide a broad view of player rankings. With many different strategies for building a successful dynasty team, no single set of rankings could possibly meet the needs of every coach. Instead, we’ve long subscribed to the idea of our experts providing their own individual rankings, ultimately giving our readers the opportunity to gravitate to a particular expert who closely matches their own style of ranking or, perhaps, instead choosing to use an average ranking across all experts. Valuation variability between players in the rankings can often be large but that variability can provide opportunity as well. Our DLF expert rankers should always be able to explain why they are higher, or lower, on a particular player.

While explaining our rankings will provide greater insight alone, we are also including a number of 2023 rookie draft selections interspersed with the players so you can get a better idea of how each of our rankers values those selections when compared to existing veteran players. As would be expected, you will find a great degree of variability in the valuation of these picks as well depending on the style of the ranker. Each draft class has its own quality and depth and, depending on how the ranker values that quality and depth, individual rookie selections will appear earlier or later on the list.

A note about the tables. The Rank column indicates this ranker’s personal rankings. The AVG column indicates the consensus rankings value at the time these rankings were created. The “+/-” column indicates how much higher or lower the ranker is to the consensus average.

Each week we will provide rankings for 120 players and 2023 rookie draft picks, alternating between 1QB and Superflex rankings. For a deeper list of rankings, please visit our consensus dynasty fantasy football rankings.

1QB DYNASTY FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS: ERIC HARDTER

Consensus, con-schmensus. I’m not a statistician, but when it comes to the aggregation of data, results will yield an average and a standard deviation. In other words, while the signal will inevitably crystallize from the noise, outliers may exist, and they may exist at a significant level.

And when it comes to fantasy football rankings, that’s okay!

To insert a piece of my own fantasy experience into this, I’ve been fortunate enough to compete in the Scott Fish Bowl for the past three years. And every year the same thing happened – my team was just good enough to make it to the postseason, but bad enough to get bounced in the first round. Assuredly, there are differences in a redraft league that doesn’t allow trading as compared to a dynasty league, and also certain things you just can’t predict (e.g., injuries).

But what I also came to realize, which can be something of a commonality with dynasty football valuation, is that I was constructing my rosters based on relative value. With hundreds of copies of each player, the real-time ADP could show you the macro trends, even if certain leagues diverged. So I, foolishly, would at least take into account whether my picks “made sense” given the comparator data. It was a great way to draft a boring squad that would have left me with something like pick 1.07 in a 12-team league, which in dynasty football is the last place you want to be.

Now to be clear, “hot-taking” your way into a roster is probably going to end up even worse. Not every pick needs to be a statement, and there’s a such thing as leaving value on the table. Still, more often than not it’s best to “get your guy,” especially in a league setting where he may just retire on your roster.

So why am I saying all this? Distilled down from my verbose nature, the key here is to rank players however you want. You can and should reference rankings composites from DLF, and whatever other source makes sense for you. But don’t worry about whether your rankings “drift” from the average. If you have a strong feeling about a player, go with it – remember, this is just your personal valuation. When making a trade, all it means is you may be willing to spend a little more, or receive a little less, but you’ll still be taking league context into account at that time.

With that said, here are a few tenets that guide my 1QB rankings:

• Make a run for it: I’m not averse to running backs in dynasty, nor am I averse to older players at the position if they’ve proven both an ability to carry the load, and a high-end outcome. This includes the very top of my rankings as can be seen below.
• Quarter-back it up: These are 1QB rankings. For me to select a quarterback early, they need to have a trump card such as running ability or a range of outcomes that includes 5,000 yards and 40+ touchdowns…consistently. There are enough solid to good quarterbacks outside the Top 120 consensus rankings (Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones, Derek Carr, Jared Goff, Geno Smith, etc.) that I’d rather load up on skill positions early and take two signal-callers back to back, maybe about midway through the draft, and try to play matchups on a weekly basis.
• Special delivery: I’m prone to players doing something “special” at a young age. My ranking of Garrett Wilson may stick out to you, but should it? Over 1,100 yards as a rookie on an offensively inept Jets team? That’s special. This also means I’m more than likely to overrate potential one-hit wonders (e.g., Andre Ellington) who come off big seasons, but I’d rather swing and miss than get called out looking.
• Forgive and forget: If there’s someone I believe in, or someone who has shown something good to great in the past, I will be less reactive in bumping that player down. As an example, why has DK Metcalf’s value fallen over time? He certainly hasn’t been bad, and he was special early on in his career. He’s only 25 and a physical freak. In my opinion, his value should have been more insulated.
• Shiny new toys: I don’t consider myself any sort of “risk averse” in dynasty, and will tailor my strategy on a yearly, monthly, and sometimes weekly basis. That said, I’m likely on the more conservative end of the spectrum when it comes to a preference for veterans over rookies.

Finally, and to reiterate, these are just my personal rankings! If my estimation differs from the masses, I’m not expecting folks to cater to me. We’ll find a middle ground in making a deal, or we won’t. Additionally, relative values are going to fluctuate depending on the time of the year and the state of one’s team – these are the “micro” bits of rationale as to why the same trade may make more sense at one point in time versus another.

So with that (nearly full article length) preamble in hand, let’s get to it!

Rankings: 1 – 24

In this grouping, you’ll only find running backs and receivers here, folks! Where possible, you’re obviously looking to marry youth with skill, but you shouldn’t shy away from “middle aged” veterans here. If there’s a set of 1QB rankings with relatively “standard” scoring where Jefferson and Chase aren’t the first two players, I’ve yet to see it. Brown typically checks in at #3.

I’ve yet to see any reason why Jonathan Taylor shouldn’t still be the dynasty RB1, and rightly or wrongly I’m not putting a rookie over him. Even in a “down year” he averaged 99 total yards per game while fighting through injuries. He’ll score the ball again. He just turned 24. Don’t overthink it.

Let’s go back to Garrett Wilson. As a rookie he achieved 60 more targets than any other Jet, and doubled the next closest player in yards. He’ll only be 23 before the season. This is wild stuff and I’m surprised he’s not a consensus top-5 guy. As a reminder, when I talk about “special,” this is what I mean. Based on my preamble, it shouldn’t be surprising to see Barkley and McCaffrey higher than consensus. They remain potential league winners.

When it comes to the rookie 1.01, let’s call him, say, “Bijan.” If he comes in and lights things up, he’ll jump up near the top with Taylor. I’m just not there yet. Drake London had a special year. Ignore the counting stats. On one of the most inept passing offenses in the league, he had 28% of the team’s receptions and 29.6% of the team’s yards. He played last season as a 21-year old. The touchdowns will come. No offense intended against Lamb, Waddle, Hall, Higgins, Hill, St. Brown, Adams, and Etienne. If I’m higher than consensus on some, I’ll be inherently lower on others.

Some offense intended against Ken Walker. He had a really good rookie year, but not a special one. I get some Javonte Williams “overhyping” vibes. Happy to be wrong. Adams and Kupp are the veteran hedges. If they both put together two more elite years, is it worth it? Suppose it depends on whether you win it all, but I see the argument. Terry McLaurin is special. And if I wish it into existence that he’ll get a real quarterback instead of turning into Allen Robinson 2.0, it will happen!

Rankings: 25 – 48

This is where I’d begin to consider tight ends and quarterbacks. The receivers and running backs begin to come with question marks, and the guys I seem to like more are the ones who have already shown something in the league. I’m a bit higher on Andrews, and still view him as the TE1 over Kyle Pitts.

Hurts as my QB1 is something of a minor upset, but I still think there’s untapped potential here, and he’s a better runner than Allen and Mahomes. The next two rookies check in here, probably Jahmyr Gibbs and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (pick your order). I’m slightly higher on Treylon Burks. The Titans’ offense fell apart without him. Again, nothing inherently against these guys who dropped off by three to eight spots, there are just others I like better. One of those is DJ Moore, who is still only about to turn 26 and already has three 1,100-yard seasons to his name. I’m keeping the faith. Another is Christian Watson. Stop me if you heard this one before, but his rookie year was special. Guy barely played until the middle of November and then compiled the most impressive touchdown streak by a receiver in recent memory. He even rushed for one! He’s a size-speed freak and he’s still learning.

The end of this zone features some veteran running backs who should still have a few good years left (note: pending no legal issues for Joe Mixon). Dobbins has an argument to be even higher, but his offense gives me pause (particularly the way they spread the ball around).

Rankings: 49 – 72

We’re already at the point where you should start thinking about “getting your guy.” For me anyhow, there aren’t a lot of folks I love in this range as it’s mostly populated by the ones I’m lower on. If this was a startup draft, I would consider trying to trade back at this point. I’m a little surprised by my divergent ranking of Dameon Pierce. He doesn’t have the draft capital, but he was the only functional part on the NFL’s most dysfunctional offense. Seems like a building block, to me.

I’m also surprised by my divergent stance with D’Andre Swift. He’s efficient but he hasn’t stayed healthy, and his coach doesn’t want to feature him. Seems like the NFL is trying to tell us something but we’re not listening. Ditto Javonte Williams. Health aside, and that’s a big question mark, his team hasn’t wanted to feature him. Sean Payton isn’t one to typically feature one running back, either.

Christian Kirk and Mike Williams are underrated veterans who I will apparently need to target in trades! Jahan Dotson wasn’t special, but he was really, really good. Led the team in touchdowns despite missing five games, and he ended the season strong. Arrow is pointing up.

The next two rookies make an appearance, with a slight gap between (likely) Quentin Johnson and the pack. Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara will be someone else’s headache instead of mine. Legal questions and cliff concerns abound. Despite Aaron Jones having a similar relative value in my rankings, I’d prefer him here. I don’t hate Lamar Jackson, I just don’t value the position as much in this format.

Rankings: 73 – 96

I’m slotting the next crew of rookies in here. While I noted previously rankings are not the same as trade values, I’d have a tough time selling one of those picks straight up for the players behind them. I’m not sold on the back half of the first round in 2023, but there should still be some value here. This is possibly my favorite group here, as I seem to have big opinions on nearly everyone!

I’m higher on some of the veteran receivers like Allen, Ridley, Lockett, and the perpetually underrated Jakobi Meyers. They won’t have longevity, but when healthy they score points. Especially if I’m swinging for the fences elsewhere on my roster, having some consistency here would be nice. I also expect Brandin Cooks to get traded and bounce back.

Pat Freiermuth seems to me like he’ll be closer to a Top 3-4 TE by the end of the year than where he’s ranked now. Washington has told us they want Brian Robinson touching the ball. He wasn’t great from an efficiency perspective, but there was that minor issue where he was shot in the off-season…Amari Cooper had a great year and probably should be higher. I’ve just never been a huge fan. If he does it again in 2023, he’ll be bumped up accordingly. Again, I’m not big on quarterbacks in this format. But Justin Fields really makes me nervous. He’s scoring points with his legs, and the Bears will likely improve the team around him. But he’s been woeful as a passer and takes too many sacks for my liking.

I didn’t intend to be lower on ball carriers like Dillon, White, James Cook, and Montgomery. The latter in particular has been a lead pipe lock for 1,100 yards a year. But in taking a second (and third, and fourth) look, I just didn’t see a way to move them up. Much as I started, I’m concluding this section with two more rookie picks. Clearly, I’m not bullish on this class outside of the top guys.

Rankings: 97 – 120

Even here, I’m probably still waiting on a quarterback. If the league’s valuation has a guy like Dak Prescott where I do, I might make that move specifically.
Trevor Lawrence improved, and ended the year relatively strong. I think his ball security is worse than his turnovers would indicate, and his rushing isn’t a huge trump card apart from the five scores. Once again, happy to be wrong here.

Romeo Doubs wasn’t special, but was quietly very good despite missing time. He could be the 1b to Watson’s 1a moving forward in the frozen tundra. Minimally, I view Elijah Mitchell as the best backup in the league. But he also clearly has standalone value, and is still young. Love him as a throw-in on trades where he’s available.

I make my final two rookie picks here. Just can’t even crack into the second round with this group. I know I’m in the minority, but I just like the veterans better.I wasn’t a big Gabriel Davis guy, and I didn’t see much to make me think 2023 will be better. I want to like Elijah Moore, well, more. But his spot on the team is tenuous at best, and he’s well behind Wilson.

Njoku, Fournette, Claypool, Pierce, and Gallup – it’s not you, it’s me. In the 100’s, dropping 15-20 spots below average isn’t a huge indictment to me. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, there are just others I like better. Evan Engram should be higher. He’s a former first-round pick, only 28, and bounced back well in 2022. As I stated in the preamble, I will be more reactive to the highs, especially when the player has shown something before as Engram did his first couple of years in the league.

Closing with Chig Okonkwo, who arguably was the Titans’ second-best pass catcher last season. He had a really nice stretch starting in November on quite possibly the worst passing offense in the league. He’s dynamic after the catch, and averaged nearly 10.0 YPR. Excited to see what he can do with more targets.

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.

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