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There are plenty of defensive players to get excited about in the 2023 draft. Arguably, the two best non-quarterback prospects are defensive linemen, and from a pure talent perspective, those two linemen may be the best two players in the draft.
This is a list of the ten IDPs that will be the most impactful in the NFL. The order may change slightly based on the final results from the NFL combine and pro days, especially at the lower end of the list, but I don’t anticipate wholesale changes. Look out for the DLF post-combine IDP review for more details.
Will Anderson Jr., Edge, Alabama Crimson Tide
Anderson is a fluid, explosive athlete who has consistently produced elite numbers against the best college competition for the last three seasons; no edge rusher in this class can compare to Anderson’s production over that span.
His first step is one of his biggest strengths. Watch how he explodes out of his stance here:
At 243 lbs, Anderson is a little on the light side, which may be a factor in why he’s averaging a 19.3% missed tackle rate over the last three seasons. However, he is willing to do the dirty work in the trenches and is still a plus defender against the run.
There’s a precedent for undersized edge rushers producing like fantasy stars. Brian Burns, Haason Reddick, etc. However, those guys are the exception, not the rule. With that said, Anderson has the potential to join that group. He may be the first defender selected in the draft and should be a top-five overall selection.
Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia Bulldogs
The Bulldogs have produced some excellent defensive line prospects in recent years. Jordan Davis, Travon Walker, and Devonte Wyatt were coveted in the 2022 draft, yet Carter may have the most upside.
He possesses a combination of the best traits of Davis and Wyatt, his Georgia defensive line coach, Tray Scott, told The Athletic, referring to Carter’s ability to contribute as both a capable run stopper and penetrating force on passing downs.
I’m skeptical of pre-draft praise from college coaches, but Scott isn’t exaggerating. Carter has powerful hands, his first step is almost unfair for a man of his size, and his lateral quickness has not been overstated.
Per PFF, Carter posted a true pass-set win rate of 25.2% in 2021 and 24.5% in 2022. Only one other interior defensive lineman has beaten blockers at a higher rate (Marley Cook, Middle Tennessee).
The details of Carter’s recent arrest were extremely concerning. However, he returned to the combine this week. Whether the incident affects his draft stock remains to be seen.
Tyree Wilson, Edge, Texas Tech Red Raiders
Wilson has improved markedly as a pass rusher every season. He has the prototypical size for the position at 6’6” and 275 lbs, and he uses his length to make plays that many others could not achieve.
His positional versatility as a player who can play both inside and outside the tackle is well-documented but perhaps a little overstated; Per PFF, Wilson spent only 2.4% of his time lined up inside the tackles in 2022 after doing so at a rate of 10% in 2021, and 13.1% in 2020.
However, I wouldn’t be surprised if he spent more time on the interior in the NFL than he did in college. He has the strength and stature to do so, and I am not convinced he has the get-off to win consistently on the edge at the next level.
Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson Tigers
Simpson was already a unanimous top-three linebacker in the draft, and after posting an eye-popping 4.43 s 40-yard dash at the combine, the buzz surrounding him has intensified.
Speed isn’t everything (see Isaiah Simmons), but it’s not the only string to Simpson’s bow. He has demonstrated that he can also be an effective pass rusher – especially when blitzing from the slot.
Rookie linebackers struggle to see heavy usage from day one because they often struggle to pick up the nuances of playing in coverage. Simpson has room to improve in zone coverage, but there are plenty of impressive plays on tape to suggest he can contribute on passing downs.
Simpson has the size (6’3”, 240 lb) and versatile skill set that will make some GMs fall in love with him, providing hope for IDP managers that he can become an every-down linebacker in the NFL. Hopefully, he lands on a team that allows him the opportunity to establish a sizeable role out of the gate.
Myles Murphy, Edge, Clemson Tigers
If raw prospects with incredible upside are your thing, then Murphy may be the edge rusher for you. The 6’5” 275 lb behemoth lacks the production and technical ability of some of his peers in the draft, but few edge rushers – if any – possess his blend of sheer size and power.
This play is impressive, but overpowering NFL-calibre offensive tackles won’t come as easily. Murphy may need to develop – or at least use – more counters at the next level to disengage from blocks consistently.
I don’t believe Murphy is ready to step into a sizeable role from day one, but his upside could be special with the right coaching.
Brian Branch, S, Alabama Crimson Tide
I believe Branch is as NFL-ready as any player mentioned in this article. He has experience playing in multiple positions in the secondary and has proven to be adept at defending both the run and pass. That’s rare.
Branch has many of the intangibles that teams look for. He’s a natural leader, seemingly lifting the level of play of those around him, and his ability to diagnose and react to plays will give him every chance to see the field from day one.
Rookie NFL safeties struggled with missed tackles in 2022 (Jalen Pitre, Jaquan Brisker, I’m looking at you!) I don’t believe this will become an issue for Branch; per PFF, he has racked up 132 tackles in three years with Alabama and, incredibly, has missed only three tackle attempts.
Draftniks will criticize Branch’s lack of big-play production; he has managed only three sacks, three interceptions, and zero fumbles in the last three years. However, such plays are often a matter of luck and scheme, and Branch’s six pass breakups in 2022 should not be sniffed at.
Drew Sanders, LB, Arkansas Razorbacks
Sanders has the length of an edge rusher at 6’5”, and he played in that position for Alabama before transferring to Arkansas because he wanted to play more of a traditional, off-ball role. He was more productive in his new position but still at his best when rushing the passer; he managed 39 pressures and 11 sacks in 2022.
I was impressed with Sander’s agility for a man of his size, and he is better in coverage than you might expect for someone who has undergone a recent position change. It’s exciting to wonder what Sanders could achieve with more experience in an orthodox linebacker role.
However, Sanders is still a work in progress. His tape shows momentary lapses in his play recognition, and he missed 19.6% of his tackle attempts last season. I suspect he can improve in that area because some of his missed opportunities resulted from over-aggressiveness, and it may help if he added a little weight to his slender 230 lb frame.
Lukas Van Ness, Edge, Iowa Hawkeyes
Few players have helped their cause at the combine more than Van Ness. The 6’5” 269lb behemoth posted impressive numbers in the 40-yard dash, and his 7.02 three-cone drill surprised many, including me.
Van Ness’ tape is fun to watch. His play strength is impressive, and his bull rush may be second to none at his position in this draft class. He would benefit from adding to his pass-rush repertoire, but I believe he could have at least moderate success using the tools he already has.
The 21-year-old improved markedly against the run in 2022, demonstrating the development that NFL GMs and IDP managers want to see in a prospect.
Many will point to Van Ness’ lack of college experience; he was used sparingly compared to many of the other edge rushers in this class. It’s a valid concern, but we’ve seen NFL teams overlook the fact that prospects weren’t full-time starters before, and I suspect they may do so again in this case.
Jack Campbell, LB, Iowa Hawkeyes
Campbell wouldn’t look out of place if he played linebacker in the NFL twenty years ago; at 6’5” and 246 lb, he’s bigger than average for the position. He uses his size and strength well in run defense. PFF awarded him an impressive 79.5 grade against the run in 2022.
I had some concerns about Campbell’s athleticism a few weeks ago, but I revisited his tape after a stellar showing at the combine, and what I saw put my mind more at ease. He doesn’t possess the range of someone like Drew Sanders, but his instincts are excellent, and I rarely saw him out of position on a play.
One of the first things I look for in linebacker prospects is their coverage ability. The step up will undoubtedly be steep for Campbell in this sense, as it is for all rookie linebackers, but I’m excited to see whether his plus skills in coverage translate. He allowed a QB rating of only 70.6 in 2022 and allowed no touchdowns.
Campbell possesses superior mental traits that may help him earn playing time sooner rather than later in the NFL. His attitude and effort were rewarded with the team captaincy – a role that he relished – and you don’t have to look far to find teammates and coaches tripping over themselves with accolades about Campbell as both a person and leader.
Antonio Johnson, S, Texas A&M Aggies
I could have slotted any one of four or five players here, but I’ve opted for Johnson as, on balance, I am more confident he can become a reliable IDP mainstay than some of the other candidates.
Johnson is a long, physical defensive back with experience playing multiple secondary positions. He’s at home in the slot, at deep safety and has even shown proficiency when playing closer to the line of scrimmage. That said, I believe he will be viewed primarily as a slot defender by NFL teams – where he spent 65% of his time with the Aggies.
He attacks ball carriers with a real sense of purpose and urgency, and there’s no reason to believe that cannot translate into the pro game. When Johnson misses tackles, as he did at a rate of 15.5% in 2022, it’s sometimes the result of over-aggression in his pursuit.
He has the size and ability in coverage to suggest he can match up with tight ends and running backs when defending the pass. Still, Johnson may struggle against agile, shifty receivers in the NFL, especially if asked to play off-coverage.
I am far less concerned about Johnson’s ball production than others seem to be – for the same reasons I gave in Brian Branch’s profile.
Five honorable mentions:
Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson Tigers
Calijah Kancey, DT, Pittsburgh Panthers
Nolan Smith, Edge, Georgia Bulldogs
Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois Fighting Illini
Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon Ducks