Last week, we saw Ryan Fitzpatrick lead an air assault against the New Orleans by passing for a career-high 417 yards and four touchdowns. His performance helped a lot of people make some extra money. Along with Fitzpatrick, there were a lot of other players who exceeded expectations during the first week of the season. Now it’s time to comb through the salaries on DraftKings to see which players are undervalued.
I used Bovada for the spread and over/under of each game. I like to use betting lines in my approach because it provides a good depiction of the potential game script for each contest. This helps me make an educated guess on which games are going to be shootouts and how the flow of the game could impact a player’s performance.
Matt Ryan, QB ATL ($5,700)
After laying an egg in front of a national audience last week, Ryan looks to redeem himself against the Carolina Panthers. Last year, he surpassed the 300-yard mark in both meetings against the Panthers and tossed three touchdown passes. Even though this isn’t a favorable matchup for Ryan, he does have some historical success against his division rival.
Ryan completed just 48.8 percent of his passes against a tough Philadelphia Eagles defense last week. We should see some positive regression in his passing efficiency, considering his career average is 64.8 percent.
According to 4for4.com, he led the league last week with eight pass attempts inside the ten-yard line. Although he only completed one of those passes, the volume indicates that offensive coordinator, Steve Sarkisian, isn’t afraid of throwing it in the red zone. The law of averages suggest, things will eventually pan out and Ryan will convert some of his pass attempts in the red zone. Maybe, Sarkisian will actually dial something up for Julio Jones in the end zone?
The motive for rostering Ryan in DFS is his price point. At $5,700, he’s too cheap to not take a shot on. He only costs $300 more than Blake Bortles and we know we are going to get at least 30 pass attempts out of him. If you’re planning on submitting multiple GPP lineups this week, then I suggest throwing Ryan in a few of those lineups to see what happens.
Bovada has the over/under set at 44.5 points. They also have the Falcons favored by six. I don’t see either team getting blown out in this contest, so the game-script should still be in Ryan’s favor.
Kareem Hunt, RB KC ($6,200)
The Pittsburgh Steelers gave up 177 yards on the ground last week to the Cleveland Browns. Granted, Tyrod Taylor rushed for the majority of those yards. The Chiefs have one of the most explosive offenses in the league and Patrick Mahomes’ ability to connect with the deep will open things up for Hunt. In other words, this is a bad matchup for the Steelers’ defense.
We are going to be riding him after a down week, considering his poor performance against the Chargers is baked into his $6,200 salary. Both teams should be lighting up the scoreboard in this game and the Chiefs should see multiple opportunities to score with Hunt in the red zone. He averaged 3.31 receptions per game last season and should catch a few passes this week since he was held catch-less last week.
Vegas has the Steelers as five-point favorites. The over/under for this game is set at 52.5 points which means this game is expected to be a shootout. With that being said, I would suggest making a few GPP stacks using players from this game. If this game does turn out to be a high scoring affair, then we should see multiple players blow up the box score.
Ryan Grant, WR IND ($4,300)
Andrew Luck’s trusty sidearm targeted Grant nine times last week which was second most amongst all Colts wide receivers and accounted for a 17.31 percent target share. If this usage continues, we should see a few monster games out of Grant. After playing 79 percent of the snaps in week one, he is the team’s clear-cut WR2 and as we all know that makes him a breakout candidate on any given week.
It’s hard to pass on him when he’s priced at $4,300. I’m not suggesting that you put him in every lineup because I do believe he’s a very risky move in cash games. I’m more interested in throwing him in a few GPP lineups to see what happens. His low price tag will allow you to pay up at other positions and grab some studs that you wouldn’t usually have in your lineup.
The Colts are slated as six-point underdogs against the Washington Redskins and the over/under is set at 47 points. This game is expected to be a laser light show when it comes to scoring and the Colts could possibly be trailing during most of this game. The game script should be in Grant’s favor, making him a what-the-heck play in tournament lineups this week.
David Njoku, TE CLE ($3,000)
It’s hard not to root for Njoku. He’s a highly athletic tight end who has a lot of potential. In week one against the Steelers, he was targeted seven times. Unfortunately, he could only convert three of those targets into catches for 13 yards. He was on the field for 88 percent of the team’s offensive snaps. If Tyrod Taylor continues to target him as much as he did in week one, then Njoku should eventually provide some TE1 weeks. From watching the game last week, it’s easy to see that he’s a key staple to the Browns’ offense.
Njoku is one of the cheaper tight end options this week. There’s a lot of upside etched into his $3,000 salary. You’re not going to break the bank to get him in your lineup which will help you utilize more of your bankroll at other positions.
The Browns are playing in one of the juiciest games this weekend. They will be on the road against the New Orleans Saints and Bovada has them as nine-point underdogs. Bovada also has the over/under set at 50 points which is the second highest line for week two. This game is expected to be a high scoring affair and the Browns will need to consistently throw the ball to try and keep up with the Saints’ explosive offense. This bodes well for Njoku’s fantasy value this week in all formats.