This is one of our favorite times of the year. After working hard to produce content all off-season, we can finally look forward to the 2015 Fantasy Football season in our beloved dynasty leagues – that means it’s time for our annual fantasy predictions. We gathered some opinions from the DLF Team and compiled eight different articles for the upcoming fantasy year. The categories were as follows:
We’ll cover the overvalued players today and bring you another category every day until the season starts. Trust me, it’s better this way. Otherwise, you’d have a 45-page, 17,500 word novella to go through this morning and that’s a lot, even for avid DLFers.
Let’s get to it!
[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]
Todd Gurley, RB STL
Is Todd Gurley talented? Yes. Will he have a productive career? Probably. Should he be the third running back off the board overall? Heck no. I don’t know how everyone is ignoring the red flags – severe knee injury, Tre Mason isn’t a scrub, the Rams offense is terrible and the NFC West is loaded with good run defenses. I think Gurley will be a solid player, but I can’t imagine taking him at his current price tag.
Odell Beckham Jr, WR NYG
People are going to hate me for this one, but hear me out. I love Beckham and think he is a true talent, but he isn’t the top overall player quite yet. He needs to do it again to be pushed ahead of the likes of Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, etc. because they have all done it multiple times. Plus, Beckham needs to stay healthy. He already has a track record of being on the training table.
Joseph Randle, RB DAL
People look at DeMarco Murray’s 2014 numbers, Dallas’ elite offensive line and Randle’s yards per carry average from last year and see a player destined for fantasy greatness. I don’t. I was surprised when Dallas passed on a running back in the draft, I was surprised when Darren McFadden was the lone free agent signing and I’m surprised people refuse to believe this backfield will be a committee attack in 2015. Randle and McFadden will split carries this year 60/40, barring injury, and the Cowboys will probably draft their feature back in next year’s draft.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR HOU
There is no question the talent is there for DeAndre Hopkins. However, there are just too many problems to fix on the offensive side of the ball. They don’t have a reliable quarterback and their running game amy be pathetic without Arian Foster. Hopkins will face number one corners and have defenses shade his way for some time.
Carlos Hyde, RB SF
Hyde was the RB15 and #47 player overall according to August ADP. He is an average runner and is on a team that looks to be playing from behind for the forseeable future. There are too many backs being drafted after him I would rather have to list.
Carlos Hyde, RB SF
Hyde is currently the RB15 using our own monthly ADP. Seemingly there because he is 24 and is slotted as the starter after Frank Gore departed, he is a case of ageism and situation over talent. Let’s not forget Reggie Bush as well as the fact the 49ers lost Pro Bowl guard Mike Iupati.
Eddie Lacy, RB GB
Yes, he’s a young, extremely talented back in a great offense. The opposition can never stack the box against an Aaron Rodgers-led offense, which will always benefit the Green Bay running back position. Most of Lacy’s flags are very green, save one – another concussion could be real trouble for him. And with Lacy’s violent running style, that’s a real possibility. Because of this, I think his overall RB2 status is a little rich.
Allen Robinson, WR, JAX
The August ADP for Robinson is 29th overall and WR18. I’m not sure how a receiver who has never had a 100 yard game and plays for the Jacksonville Jaguars has vaulted himself into the third round of startup drafts.
C.J. Anderson, RB DEN
I’ll try very hard to avoid another rant on Anderson, so the sweet and simple of it is this – Anderson’s total collegiate and pro carries are fewer than what some backs have accomplished in a single season. In very limited usage, he’s missed time due to knee and concussion injuries and has already been held out of camp work due to ankle and shoulder issues. I think he’s a product of the system and won’t hold up under a full-time load, and we’ve already got Gary Kubiak talking up Ronnie Hillman and how he needs to be involved more in the offense.
Dr. Scott Peak
CJ Anderson, RB DEN
I get that a Kubiak running back can bring fantasy gold, but good luck predicting which one is chosen. Anderson had a huge finish to the 2014 season, but his conditioning has been questioned and he is already having injury issues. Despite all the hype, 40% of his rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns came in two games. Anderson’s ADP is 27 and that’s a high price to pay for an runner with a limited track record. Just watch Hillman end up starting or at least taking a huge chunk out of Anderson’s touches.
Mike Evans, WR TB
He may turn out to be a quality player over his career. However, as I look at the players being drafted early and wonder who doesn’t belong, Evans stands out. The expectations and the prices I have seen people pay for him over the Summer lead me to believe he will disappoint many owners. Tampa Bay was 31st in rushing attempts in 2014, and I anticipate them establishing the ground game and distribute their scoring more evenly next year. I expect to see Evans a little further down dynasty rankings in the future and I think selling now would be capitalizing on his peak value.
Russell Wilson, QB SEA
Wilson is a mid-QB1 who masqueraded as a high-end QB1 in 2014. His rushing attempts and efficiency will drop in 2015, putting him squarely in the QB6-8 range and that’s not worth a fourth-round startup pick when players like Philip Rivers and Tony Romo can be had in the 13th round.
Alfred Morris, RB WAS
This is assuming PPR leagues, but Alf continues to cost more than he produces. He plays every game which boosts his final point total compared to other RBs but on a weekly basis he is a RB3 or low quality Flex play in PPR. Some assume with Roy Helu gone he will now be given a chance to be the pass catching back, too. Helu wasn’t the reason Morris never caught passes – his ~20% drop rate was.
Keenan Allen, WR SD
Armed with a dynasty ADP of 34, most seem to be banking on Allen returning to his rookie year form as opposed to his extending painfully mediocre second season. While I expect improvement, the Chargers have a fairly muddle receiver depth chart and coach Mike McCoy has shown that he wants to lead with his run game. Given the situation at hand and the fact I view his talent to be more that of second fiddle, I’ll pass on Allen in the third round.
O’Dell Cornelius Beckham, WR NYG
Bet this one is a bit of a surprise. His value is through the roof, but the sample size is extremely small. With the return of Victor Cruz and the addition of Shane Vereen, I’m not convinced his production will equal his current price right now. This one I’ll be happily wrong about.
Martavis Bryant, WR PIT
It’s very difficult, impossible really, to rationalize a 4th round start-up ADP (WR25, #45 overall in August) for a player who isn’t even penciled into his team’s starting lineup. Bryant somehow overcame this obstacle and is being drafted ahead of other young players like Golden Tate (WR26) and Jarvis Landry (WR29) who are already primary or secondary targets on their respective teams. In investing terms, this is not a particularly attractive price of entry. Add in his recent problems and this pick could have been a disaster for some earlier this Summer.
Allen Robinson, WR JAX
Do I need to go over this again? If you read didn’t my “Pump the Brakes” article on Robinson, take a peek, it’s all in there. A close second on this list is Martavis Bryant.
Michael Floyd, WR ARI
Floyd is currently penciled in as the Cardinals WR2, yet has the potential to be passed over by John Brown and fall down the depth chart and possibly serve as the team’s WR3. The problem is Floyd is being drafted as though he is the Cardinals WR1 in the fifth round of dynasty startups. While he is set to be a free agent after next season and a change of scenery would benefit him, I’m not willing to risk that high of a pick on Floyd.
Rob Gronkowski, TE NE
There is no chance in Trump Tower (See what I did there?) I am paying a first round price tag for a player who plays at a position I only need to start one of (this goes for quarterbacks as well). I understand the whole positional advantage argument, but there is a stronger argument for spending that capital elsewhere. I’ll happily let somebody else have him.
Eddie Lacy, RB GB
I’m not questioning his talent or his situation, even with Jordy Nelson out for the year. No, he’ll prove to be overvalued because of injures. 2013? Concussion. 2014? Concussion. With a high work load and bruising style, I worry he’s in line for more.
Todd Gurley, RB STL
It may not be fair to place Gurley as overvalued considering he has not played a professional down, but he will go early in most drafts and this doesn’t make much sense to me. The reason I place him here is a direct reflection of the Rams offense. For instance, their offensive line is one of the worst in the NFL, their quarterback situation is not adequate and I’m not impressed with the receivers on the team. Do you have that much faith in Jeff Fisher? I don’t. As talented as Gurley is, I just find him being buried in this mess for years and his injury is no joke either.
Todd Gurley, RB STL
I know they’ve made major advances in ACL surgery and recovery takes players a fraction of the time it once did. I know Gurley was the most electrifying runner in college football prior to the injury. I know Adrian Peterson came back better than ever from his surgery. Wanna hear a few other things I know? For one, Todd Gurley is not Adrian Peterson. Remember the story of Peterson putting his rebuilt ligaments to the test in a sprint against fellow freak Percy Harvin, running uphill and winning? This took place prior to Mini-Camp, in early June, a mere five months removed from suffering the tear in Week 17 of the 2011 season. It illustrates A.P.’s mentality and refusal to accept himself as anything less than all-world. I’ve heard Gurley interviewed and that same resolve is nowhere to be found. He appears uncertain about his ability and his return. With week one fast approaching, Gurley has yet to see contact, with coaches stating openly he will not take the field until several weeks into the season. Yet dynasty owners are still drafting him in the first 50 picks, in the RB20-25 range. He has the third highest rank of any runner, rookie or otherwise, in DLF’s Dynasty Rankings. Yet we have no idea when he’ll return and know even less about what type of player he will be. Throw Tre Mason into the mix (who performed admirably in his own rookie campaign) and will certainly siphon touches off of Gurley’s stat-line over the next three years. As a lover of the run game, I certainly hope to see Gurley return to form and dominate on the NFL stage. However, I’m not willing to draft him in round one of a rookie draft or round four of a start-up where I can find immediate help to strengthen my team and help me dominate for years.
C.J. Mosley, LB Baltimore
Don’t jump out of your chairs at this. I love Mosley’s game and he is a no brainer dynasty LB1. My point of contention is I have seen him routinely going entirely too early in startup drafts this off-season. Regardless of whether you think he is a better dynasty play than Bobby Wagner, DeAndre Levy or Navorro Bowman, the bottom line is value is being tossed out the window in taking Mosely at his most recent ADP of 37th overall. A few notable offensive players being selected after his current ADP are Keenan Allen, Carlos Hyde and DeVante Parker. I understand the importance of having a young, reliable linebacker in the lineup but it is infinitely easier to find a replacement at a much lower cost than it is to find a young, high upside offensive player.
Brandin Cooks, WR NO
He’s overrated, but still a great football player. I don’t buy him at his current draft position of 16th overall. The Saints seem more committed than ever to the run and everything seems to be trending towards a slide into Drew Brees’ golden years. Cooks will prove to be fool’s gold by the end of the 2015-16 season.
Victor Cruz, WR NYG
His fate was sealed the moment he went down with the knee injury last year. I’ll take ANYTHING for Cruz at this point. Evan Silva lists out the other NFL players with the same injury here. HINT: It’s not pretty.
DeMarco Murray, RB PHI
During the back-half of last season, he started to wear down. Will handling over 400 carries affect him this season? Will there be enough meat on the bone for Murray and Ryan Mathews to share? I’m not spending a third round start-up pick to find out.
Odell Beckham Jr., WR NYG
Whoa, whoa, whoa. Put down your pitchfork Spanky. He’s got touchy hamstrings and a hot and cold quarterback. I’ve laid out my reasons why you should be cautious in this dynasty debate.
Melvin Gordon, RB SD
I am not saying Gordon will not be a good player in the NFL. I am just concerned with his draft spot and the early hype. The Chargers seem content using Branden Oliver and Danny Woodhead as solid options. This looks like a complete RBBC at best for Gordon this year.
Giovani Bernard, RB CIN
According to the most recent ADP data, Gio is going as the RB19. While this is a good start towards the market correction, the fifth round of a startup draft remains way too high for a guy who’s been returning punts in the preseason, and has lost first-team touches to Rex Freakin’ Burkhead. As far as I’m concerned, the idea of Gio’s contributions vastly outweigh what he’s put on film thus far in his short career, as his running leaves much to be desired and his passing game usage is far too game flow dependent. For the price, you should aim higher.
In case you’re counting, that gives us the following votes:
Odell Beckham, Jr. (3 votes)
Todd Gurley (3 votes)
Carlos Hyde (2 votes)
Eddie Lacy (2 votes)
Allen Robinson (2 votes)
C.J. Anderson (2 votes)
Joseph Randle (1 vote)
DeAndre Hopkins (1 vote)
Mike Evans (1 vote)
Alfred Morris (1 vote)
Russell Wilson (1 vote)
Keenan Allen (1 vote)
Melvin Gordon (1 vote)
Giovani Bernard (1 vote)
Brandin Cooks (1 vote)
Martavis Bryant (1 vote)
Michael Floyd (1 vote)
Rob Gronkowski (1 vote)
Victor Cruz (1 vote)
DeMarco Murray (1 vote)
…and a shout out to CJ Mosley from Tyler, who went outside the box to take the IDP angle for us this year.
So, who do you predict will be this year’s fantasy ROY? Let us know in the comments below.
- New England Cam Chatter: The Dynasty Fallout of Cam Newton signing with the Patriots - June 28, 2020
- Introducing myDLF - June 6, 2020
- How to Use Everything on DLF: A Guidebook - June 1, 2020