Recently, I was studying the latest dynasty ADP looking for players I considered either overvalued or undervalued at the current startup price tag. While quite a few stood out in each category, I finally opted to do some crowd sourcing and ask my Twitter followers for their thoughts.
I wrapped up the series as I focused on the tight ends with this question.
Here’s May DLF dynasty ADP for TEs. Who is the most overvalued & undervalued?
I’m going with Henry and Bennett pic.twitter.com/URww8mKSNf
— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) May 26, 2017
Hunter Henry, LAC – 12 votes
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After a surprisingly productive rookie season, the dynasty value of Henry has exploded. At one point, he moved ahead of Tyler Eifert into the TE4 spot, though he’s now back to TE5. This was enough to earn him the title of most overvalued. Even though he tied for the league lead among tight ends with eight touchdowns, he was still just the TE19. There is some concern that if (when) he fails to match that impressive touchdown total, he could fail to match his current value. Factor in the return of veteran Antonio Gates for yet another season and the influx of other young tight ends in the league and it seems to be a long shot that Henry will maintain his lofty ranking over the next season.
OJ Howard, TB – 7 votes
Once again, the rookie hate comes to light. In the case of Howard though, that’s not the only reason he makes the overvalued list. We’ve all seen the long amount of time it takes for young tight ends to make an impact on fantasy rosters, not to mention Howard faces stiff competition on his own team in the form of 2016’s TE7, Cameron Brate. While Howard is an extremely talented and well-rounded player, Brate has already been successful in the league and reportedly has a strong on-field relationship with quarterback Jameis Winston. These things should not be quickly dismissed. Already being valued ahead of someone like Greg Olsen, a perennial fantasy TE1, Howard has a lot to do to live up to this value.
Evan Engram, NYG – 6 votes
Another rookie being viewed as overvalued is Giants first-rounder Engram, who many view as more of a wide receiver with a tight end designation. While Engram doesn’t face the same level of competition as Howard at the tight end spot, the Giants are not lacking for options for their slot receiver role, between Engram and second-year receiver Sterling Shepard, who ran over 86% of his routes from the slot, per Pro Football Focus. There has even been some speculation that veteran Brandon Marshall could see an increased spot role in 2017. Already being drafted as the TE8, dynasty owners are banking on immediate production that may not be easily attainable.
Jordan Reed, WAS – 4 votes
The Redskins Reed is viewed as one of the game’s elite, drafted as the TE3 behind only Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce, but there is one glaring issue that has dynasty owners clearly concerned. Of course, that is Reed’s concussion history. Reed has six documented head injuries dating back to his college days, including one in 2016 that cost him two games. It doesn’t seem a stretch to say his next concussion could put his career in danger. In addition to the head injuries, Reed also has a history of other injuries, including a severe shoulder issue and multiply lower leg injuries that have cost him game time over the years.
Others Receiving Votes:
Travis Kelce (3), Zach Ertz (3), Cameron Brate (2), Eric Ebron (2), Greg Olsen (2), Bucky Hodges (1), Delanie Walker (1), Jack Doyle (1), Martellus Bennett (1)
Kyle Rudolph, MIN – 16 votes
After years of underwhelming play, Rudolph exploded with over 200 fantasy points in 2016, good enough to finish as the TE2 in PPR leagues, easily the best performance of his seven-year career. The Vikings have made some moves to improve their offense this off-season, especially their run game, but we should expect more of the same from Sam Bradford and his pass-catchers in 2017, meaning Rudolph should be in for another TE1 season should he stay healthy. That makes him a huge value, as the voters have pointed out, at his current TE15 ADP, being drafted outside of the top ten rounds.
Gerald Everett, LAR – 9 votes
The Rams spent their second-round pick on former South Alabama tight end Everett and the new head coach in Los Angeles wasted no time in making comparisons between the rookie and the Redskins’ Reed. Even with the presence of last year’s rookie, Tyler Higbee, this praise from Sean McVay got dynasty owners attention. While he has been a popular pick in the second round of rookie drafts, Everett fell to TE24 spot in May mock drafts, being drafted behind veterans like Jason Witten and Julius Thomas, as well as fellow rookie Jake Butt, who suffered a torn ACL in his bowl game. The Rams need all the playmakers they can get to support young quarterback Jared Goff, and while there are many mouths to feed, Everett will have the chance for early playing time.
Austin Hooper, ATL – 8 votes
As a rookie in 2016, Hooper had a fairly quiet season for the Falcons, which we’ve come to expect for rookies at this position. Only twice in the regular season did Hooper eclipse ten fantasy points in a game, but he ended the season on a high note, catching three passes for 32 yards and a touchdown. Performing well on the biggest of stages should be enough to make an impression on dynasty owners, but his May ADP of 131.7 is only slightly better than his January mark of 138.2. At TE16, Hooper looks like a value to many of the respondents, but it is difficult for me to see him being drafted ahead of any of the fifteen listed ahead of him.
Eric Ebron, DET – 7 votes
Prior to the NFL Draft, there was growing buzz that the Lions could use an early round pick on a potential replacement for their tight end Ebron. As we know, that didn’t happen, though they did add big man Michael Roberts late in the draft. Ebron finished as the TE14 last season and is being drafted as the TE12. Considering his status as a former first-round pick, along with the fact that he is only 24 years old heading into the 2017 season makes him a clear target just outside of the top 100 picks in a startup draft.
Others Receiving Votes:
Delanie Walker (6), Jack Doyle (6), Martellus Bennett (5), Adam Shaheen (2), Jared Cook (2), Jonnu Smith (2), Zach Ertz (1), Cameron Brate (1), CJ Fiedorowicz (1), Jimmy Graham (1), Julius Thomas (1), Maxx Williams (1)
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