Usually the summer is a much slower time for dynasty and in Jeff’s real life. (Yeah, that’s right, I’m referring to myself in the third person now. When you reach my level, you can get away with it.) Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case recently, necessitating my taking last week off of Mind of Miller. Because of the extra time away, I’ve got a few more things on my brain than usual, so I thought, “Hey, Jeff. You’re super handsome. Also, you should bring back Burning Questions for a week.”
“You’re right, Jeff. You are super handsome. And smart. You should be a model/rocket scientist/get your own fitness show on ESPN2 Sunday mornings.”
My conversation with myself went on for hours, so I’ll spare you the details. Suffice it to say, Jeff decided to do an OTA-centric Burning Questions type thing.
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What news out of OTAs has you the most excited?
It seems the entirety of Football Twitter has given up on Laquon Treadwell. On many (Most?) levels, it makes sense. With but a single reception to his name, the rookie quite literally did as close to nothing as possible in 2016. But is that the whole story?
There were rumblings last year that Treadwell wasn’t completely healthy. Now we have reports he pushed through his broken fibula before it was healed properly, causing further issues. On top of that, the Ole Miss product dealt with a broken finger, pulled hammy, and ankle injury. Add in the emergence of Adam Thielen, and you can see how Treadwell rarely saw the field regardless of his lofty draft status.
It is rare for a first round rookie to be dismissed so readily as Treadwell. I suspect his lack of attractive measureables is as much at fault as anything. Because of a lack of explosive athleticism, any sort of chink in the armor was all the excuse they needed to bury him deeper than Jeff Fisher’s coaching career.
With Treadwell running with the first team and getting rave reviews from OTAs, I am beginning to feel like there may be a value proposition to be found in the second-year player. We should keep in mind the youngster is not yet 22, and prior to 2014, nobody really expected much from any wide receiver in year one. It is entirely possible Treadwell is a massive bust who will never amount to anything, but is also highly possible he is a wolf in sheep’s clothing, waiting to eat the NFL alive.
How many fantasy points will LeSean McCoy score this season?
I’ll set the over/under at 1200.
OK, that may be a teensy bit aggressive, but would it surprise anybody if he hit 325? Assuming health, which is always risky with running backs, especially 210 pound, 29 year-old types, 300+ touches is well within reach, and with it, the potential for a 325 point campaign. As crazy good as he was in 2016, 2017 should be even more spectacular.
Even if McCoy doesn’t push those sorts of totals, the talk out of OTAs points towards the veteran seeing a larger role in the passing game. This means a higher weekly floor and more efficient production, both of which would be a nice consolation price if the touch volume doesn’t increase as much as it could.
How do you expect the Jets’ backfield to shake out?
Matt Forte wasn’t good in 2016. The veteran tallied an RB21 finish courtesy of career worsts in PPG (13.1) and receptions (30) to go with an embarrassing 3.7 YPC. After topping 4.4 YPC for four consecutive seasons from 2010-2013, the former Bear hasn’t surpassed 4.1 since. Now 31-years-old, the door is closing quickly.
2016 was considerably more kind to Bilal Powell. The Jets’ tailback scored 13.4 more fantasy points than Forte despite handling the ball 59 fewer times. Career highs in YPC (5.5), receptions (58), and touchdowns (five) carried Powell to an RB16 finish and a hopeful stranglehold on 2017 touches.
This past week, Jets’ offensive coordinator John Morton came out and called the backfield a committee. If this truly is the case, Powell should have little difficulty putting the once-great Forte out to pasture for good. Just be careful not to over-invest: Powell will be 29 in October.
Is Martellus Bennett in for a career year?
Bennett, who has supposedly been working diligently on his chemistry with Aaron Rodgers, has been a TE1 four of the last five years and was well on his way to the mark in an injury-shortened 2015. That accomplishment is all-the-more impressive when you consider he has topped 100 targets only once in his career. Efficiency with limited targets will be key in Green Bay for the self-proclaimed black unicorn, as they have targeted tight ends an average of only 102 times the last five years.
If we get a little creative with numbers and give the big guy 100 targets at the efficiency he showed last year with a similarly elite quarterback, we are looking at more than 14 PPG. I’m not sure that is the world’s most likely scenario, but his range of outcomes includes a top-three finish to go with a very safe floor.
To answer the question I asked myself, yes, there is every reason to believe this could challenge Bennett’s 90 reception, six touchdown 2014 as his best season yet. It will likely need to be with fewer catches and more scores, so I’ll predict 73/825/9 for a stout 13.1 PPG.
Will you be back next week, or are you going to leave us hanging again?
I will be here with a look at a team I won a title with in 2015, blew up the following off-season, and how I’ve attempted to turn things around in a very short period of time. See you then.
- 2018 Summer Sleeper: Chicago Bears - July 9, 2018
- NFL Draft Aftermath: Winners and Losers from the AFC North - June 18, 2018
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Mason Rudolph, QB PIT - May 30, 2018