The fantasy football stock market is constantly fluctuating and it is always important for us to know which players have a price that has become exploitable whether it be to buy or sell. Pieces like this one have been fairly commonplace in the industry for a while in both redraft and dynasty, but I will be focusing on college players for devy dynasty leagues and how their week-to-week performances are affecting their price in those leagues.
In this week’s Devy Stock Market, I will be analyzing some recent #dynastytrades involving Devy players to give a look at the type of NFL players that current college players are being sold for.
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From @MichaelDynasty1: Derrius Guice for Laquon Treadwell
This trade is a good example of two players headed in opposite directions, at least in terms of market value. Laquon Treadwell was a highly sought-after Devy asset from the day he stepped on the Ole Miss campus, all the way until the day he was drafted. Unfortunately for Treadwell fans like myself, his NFL career isn’t off to a roaring start as he hasn’t registered a reception yet so far in his rookie season. For Guice, he has had the opportunity to be the LSU RB1 with Leonard Fournette injured and Guice has more than lived up to the hype with 564 rushing yards and a 9.1 yards per carry average.
While Guice’ stock continues to rise, he isn’t eligible until 2018 and even if he does end up being valued as a top three rookie in that class, I would still prefer Laquon Treadwell at this moment. However, one thing to account for, weirdly, the NFL player may have the lower fantasy floor in terms of trade value in the near future. In the event that Treadwell’s rookie season continues to disappoint, you may be hard pressed to even get a future 1st for him, while Guice stock will only really decrease in the event of an injury.
From @Alphaxray79: T.Y. Hilton, Corey Coleman and Dalvin Cook for AJ Green/Golden Tate/17 Rookie 1st
There are some big NFL names involved in this trade, as well as one of the best players in the 2017 draft class. To give a picture of the value of a 2017 rookie first in a Devy league, outside of maybe the top two or three selections, the rest of the first round are players who normally go in the late second or later in traditional rookie draft. With that in mind, to break this down further, Golden Tate and the first aren’t more valuable than any of the three assets on the other side, but for sake of this breakdown, Tate/first cancels out T.Y. Hilton.
So it comes down to Corey Coleman and Dalvin Cook for AJ Green. This swap looks like the perfect example of a win now versus rebuild trade. Cook has a 5+ yards per carry and more than 1200 scrimmage yards in each of his three college seasons, including surpassing his Freshman season total in only seven games in 2016. Corey Coleman was a top four rookie pick in most rookie drafts and showed why he should be the #2 player in the 2016 class with seven catches for 173 receiving yards and two touchdowns in his first two games before breaking his hand. AJ Green is a top ten dynasty asset and this trade is a matter of risk and waiting, with Green you get a safe top five wide receiver right now, while with Coleman and Cook you get two players who have the possibility to be top ten at their position as soon as 2017.
From @BigPerm3313: Jordan Howard and 2017 4th for Courtland Sutton and 2017 2nd
Jordan Howard has been one of the more impressive rookies in the NFL in recent weeks. Howard has a pair of 100 yard rushing games since taking over for Jeremy Langford and it has many owners wondering how much his value has changed since he was selected in the early 2nd round of rookie drafts. Courtland Sutton has had a very solid third college season and only his second season playing wide receiver full time. Sutton has 590 receiving yards and four touchdowns with a 19.7 yards per catch in his first six games this season.
Sutton is still a bit of a raw prospect which is why some believe he will stay in school and will be in the 2018 draft rather than the 2017 draft when he is first eligible. As I talked about above, the devy aspect heavily dilutes the rookie draft, making the picks involved here fairly irrelevant. So when debating Sutton versus Howard, I think that Sutton has the higher ceiling, but Howard has the clear safer floor as a current starting running back in the NFL and scoring points for fantasy teams.
From @Brian_McCabe: LeSean McCoy, Samaje Perine, 1st round Devy for Keenan Allen and 2017 Rookie 3rd
A leg injury has Samaje Perine on the sideline for the next couple of weeks, but outside of a two game stretch where he combined for 312 rushing yards and four touchdowns against Texas and TCU, Perine has been fairly unimpressive with four games with 60 rushing yards or less. To look at the trade itself, even with up and down season from Perine, this looks like a slight overpay for Allen, but one that would’ve looked like a bargain before his season ending torn ACL and will look like a bargain once again if he is able to return to form. LeSean McCoy is a solid win now running back with Perine who I project to be a late first/early second in the 2017 rookie class if he comes out, and the first round Devy value is not too much different from a rookie 1st in a normal league. My favorite devy trades are when I am able to trade for players who can help me now as well as later, and this trade of Keenan Allen does accomplish that.