Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Drew Lock, QB from Missouri. You can also check out all of our NFL Draft Prospect articles here. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned, and stay ahead of your league!
The quarterback position is important. While players will be taken early in this draft like most years, it is widely considered a “down year” for quarterback talent as a whole. With superflex and two-quarterback leagues growing in popularity, the QB position is becoming just as important in fantasy as it is in the NFL.
Let’s take a minute to look at one of the top passing prospects entering this year’s NFL Draft: Drew Lock.
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Stats from sports-reference.com.
The first thing that stands out when reviewing Lock’s stats is his experience. He played all four years at Missouri and started for the better part of three of them. The next thing is how much better he was in 2017 compared to 2018. Lock completed fewer passes on fewer attempts but finished the season with 466 more passing yards and a staggering 16 more passing touchdowns than in his final year.
One thing that did progress in Lock’s game, however, was his completion percentage. The numbers show he leaned more on higher-percentage passes in 2018.
When watching the film, you see the good and bad in Lock’s overall game. The video above is a game from early in the season against Georgia. I like watching film of players against upper-echelon defenses to really get a gauge on how prospects deal with handling a high caliber of talent. Often, it shows how that player handles adversity.
There is plenty of good in this video. We see Lock make some nice plays looking off coverage, and display good arm strength and a willingness and ability to fit balls into tight coverage. We also see him show the ability to throw on the run and when fading back. Lock uses decent footwork as well when given a clean pocket and shows surprising agility for a man of size, showing off his rushing ability.
Lock certainly does need improvement in some areas, however, and those show up on film as well. All too often, he focuses in on his primary target and does not always go through his progressions. When he does go through his reads, he often does so too slowly which will result in sacks and late passes all too often. Lock also tends to lack ideal touch on passes at times and often leads to incompletions and tipped passes for interceptions. The last thing I take from this film is the limitation Missouri’s game plan put on Lock in 2018. Most of his reads were in the short-to-intermediate passing game and the focus seemed to be to getting the ball out of his hands quickly.
According to MockDraftable, Lock’s athletic profile compares closely to former number one overall pick Alex Smith. His 20-yard-shuttle showed off his 86th-percentile agility and speed. He also showed an above average 40-yard dash time of 4.69 seconds. These numbers are impressive when put into context – Lock is 6’3 3/4 and 228 pounds. He also hits what most consider to be the minimum passable size for hand size at nine inches.
In the drills portion of the combine, Lock looked like a clear winner. He threw the ball with ease and accuracy, showing good anticipation and ball placement. His quarterback skills grade all over the place, with comparisons ranging from Dan LeFevour to Patrick Mahomes.
Lock continues to be pushed down a lot of people’s boards and perhaps shouldn’t be. He checks a lot of boxes that NFL scouts and general managers look for in a signal-caller and will likely still be drafted with a top pick.
March rookie ADP on DLF shows Lock currently with an average draft position of 38 overall in rookie drafts, being taken as the third quarterback off the board. This data is for one-quarterback leagues and should be adjusted accordingly for superflex and 2QB leagues. I can see value for Lock climbing a little post draft with a potential top-ten pick being used on him.
In a class generally considered weak at the quarterback position, Drew Lock is an intriguing prospect. Where he is drafted will tell us how general managers perceive him. Even in a ‘down’ quarterback class, I still expect him to be drafted in the top ten overall by a QB-needy franchise. NFL general managers often overdraft quarterbacks because of how important the position is to prolonged success in the league – this is why I believe Lock will be selected with a top ten – and even possibly top five – selection.
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