Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Parris Campbell, WR from Ohio State. You can also check out all of our NFL Draft Prospect articles here. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned, and stay ahead of your league!
This year’s wide receiver class is as deep as it is talented. There are going to be a few prospects who will sneak their way into the first round of rookie drafts once everything is said and done with the NFL Draft. The overall depth in this class will create some hidden values that could be found in the second and third round of rookie drafts.
Parris Campbell is one of those fringe players who could see a major rise in value once we find out where he goes. He has a lot of potential and could develop into one of the most productive wide receivers in the class. On the flipside, he’s not a lock and there are some concerns that could prevent him from developing into a reliable asset in fantasy. With all that being said, let’s take a look at his rookie profile.
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Statistics from sports-reference.com.
Campbell had a slow start to his career. He didn’t have a significant role in the offense until his junior season when he accumulated a 16.47 percent market share of the offensive production. During that time, he saw 13 percent of the targets, averaging 11.4 yards per target.
He then kicked things up a notch the next year as a 21-year-old senior, owning 21.92 percent of the passing offense while accumulating a 23.46 percent dominator rating. He also led the team with a 21 percent target share. One thing to note is that he had the most receptions for a Buckeye in a single season last year. He is also the second Ohio State receiver to surpass 1,000 yards receiving since 1999.
The late breakout age is a concern. He’s technically a one-hit wonder, considering he only had significant production during his senior season. On the contrary, he did share the field with a lot of talented receivers. Campbell had to wait for Curtis Samuel to leave for the NFL before he got the opportunity to see an uptick in touches.
Adding context to his production provides a better understanding of his situation. However, the fact it took him until he was 21 years old to be able to produce at the college level is still not very encouraging.
In one of the biggest games of his career against Michigan in 2018, Campbell caught six passes for 192 yards – sixth-most in school history for a single game. He also caught two touchdown passes. I chose this game because it shows both the good and the bad of Campbell’s game. His 78-yard catch and run for a touchdown in the fourth quarter really shows his speed. The defense couldn’t catch him and it provides a good look of how dangerous he can be in the open field. His second touchdown in the game shows how he can eat cushion and flip his hips to create separation. If anything, this game shows how his athleticism can impact an entire game.
After watching his performance against the Wolverines, you will notice how the Buckeyes utilized Campbell in their passing attack. We saw him get targeted on a few crossing routes along with some short passes in the flat and behind the line of scrimmage. A large portion of his targets as at or behind the line of scrimmage which contributed to his 11.8 yards per reception.
It’s hard to knock Campbell for his usage because after all, the Buckeyes were just trying to get their best athlete the ball in space. Even though he’s not a nuanced route runner, that doesn’t mean he can’t run routes. He definitely has the speed and short area quickness to create separation from defenders. His lateral quickness can help him develop into a more polished route runner if he takes the time to learn the craft. Just because he was asked to run a limited route tree doesn’t mean he can’t expand his skill set in the future.
In one of the deepest wide receiver classes in recent memory, Campbell stood out amongst the crowd at the combine. His 4.31-second 40-yard dash tied Andy Isabella for the fastest official time at the combine amongst wide receivers. He had a 113.4 height adjusted speed score which ranks in the 96th percentile at his position. Not only does he have world class long speed, but he displayed incredible burst with a 40-inch vertical and a 135-inch broad jump. He also posted elite-level short-area quickness by running a 4.03 20-yard shuttle.
He demonstrated all of these workout metrics on tape. He’s not a player who just shows up for the combine. Unlike some prospects, he has the ability to transfer his athleticism to the field. Campbell has the potential to be one of the most exciting skill players in the NFL if he gets drafted into the right situation.
Like most rookie wide receivers, Campbell’s dynasty value will be dependent on where he goes in the draft. If he goes to a team with a high-powered offense with a creative coach, then he’s off to the races and his dynasty value will blow up. However, a team like the Miami Dolphins could easily deflate his stock.
Campbell currently has a dynasty ADP of 155.83, making him the 67th receiver off the board. There’s virtually no risk at that price point. There’s currently a value arbitrage between his startup draft value and his 15.10 rookie ADP. Take advantage of his current price point, because his value is going to increase once he gets drafted. After his performance at the combine, I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets drafted in the second round. He should easily be a top-100 pick in the draft, giving him plenty of draft capital to lean on. With him just being 21.7 years old, he’s definitely going to hold his dynasty value during the first couple of years of his career.
I used DLF’s Trade Finder to look up trades involving draft picks ranging from the 1.9 to the 1.16 in rookie drafts. Campbell is more than likely going to fall into this range. There’s a chance he could go a little earlier or a little later, but this range should be close to his current rookie draft value. One trade that comes to mind after looking at the Trade Finder is seeing the 1.9-pick get traded for Curtis Samuel. Both of these players are very similar athletically and they could possibly have similar career trajectories. I believe these players are close in value. You may want to value Samuel more because he’s more seasoned, but they both have similar tools on their toolbelt.
We might see Campbell sneak into the first round of rookie drafts in the next few months. At worst, he will be an early to mid second round pick. If you are participating in a startup draft in the near future, then you have to take a swing on Campbell in the later rounds. Even if you don’t like him, you can still sell him for a profit after the draft.
Campbell is bursting with potential. Lack of athleticism won’t prevent him from carving a role with an NFL team. He’s the type of player who will need to land in the right situation to become successful. His work isn’t over yet. He still needs to work on expanding his route tree and other parts of his game to eventually develop into a consistent fantasy asset. I can’t fault anyone for wanting to pull the trigger on him in the first round of their rookie draft if he lands in a promising situation.