What if I told you that we could highlight a smaller group of players who are more likely to hit in the NFL right now than whoever is drafted in the first round in any given draft? What if I told you I didn’t need to know the results of the combine, the rumors about what coaches think, or the potential of any landing spot to do it?
What if you could know that right now?
Using the past to predict the future is a fool’s game. There is always a Tyreek Hill, Michael Thomas or Calvin Ridley waiting to make a fool out of anyone that tries. However, if we’re going to try, we may as well know the odds.
The 2019 NFL draft is coming and I’ve broken down past wide receiver classes looking for patterns in production from 2012-2017. In other words, we have been grinding production, instead of tape, and crunching names instead of numbers.
We now have a six-year sample of what the best wide receiver production looked like in that time. And we didn’t even have to look at any graphs. (Though I did slip one in, for funsies.)
We made a model with words, and now it’s time to see the results.
I’m about to geek out a little. I’ve been holding it in for six years’ worth of draft prospects now. If you aren’t interested in “geeking” along with me, you can skip to the “What do I need to know?” section.
I think there has been value in walking through each step one by one in this series. Hopefully, you agree. But while you haven’t had to count anything, I have been keeping track of what we’ve seen in our time machine.
The first thing I want to know is how well production whittled down the potential player pool. There’s no sense in saying “90% of players who produced above Y had a top 24 season” if everyone since 2012 has produced over that threshold.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
Latest posts by Peter Howard (see all)
- 2019 NFL Draft Prospect – Greg Dortch, WR Wake Forest - April 14, 2019
- 2019 NFL Draft Prospect – KeeSean Johnson, WR Fresno State - April 11, 2019
- 2019 NFL Draft Prospect – Andy Isabella, WR UMass - April 10, 2019