As I continue to participate in devy drafts every year, I have become increasingly curious to see if there is any sort of consensus among devy drafters. A lot of people rely on rankings of their own or someone else’s, but finding actual devy ADP data is much more challenging.
My goal was to gather monthly devy ADP for DLF, but I unfortunately only received enough participants for two devy mocks. While this is not a large enough sample size to generate reputable ADP data, I decided to turn the results into an article that can still be helpful to the devy community.
Let’s take a look at how those two mocks turned out and some key observations from each round of results.
As you will see below, I calculated an ADP value based on the two mock draft results. Keep in mind this was for the superflex format. Each mock consisted of a five-round snake draft with 12 unique owners.
You will see some players with a 61 value in one of the mock draft columns. This indicates they were not selected in that five-round mock. This likely skews the ADP data a bit towards the end of the draft, but I thought it was the fairest way to assign these players a value.
In addition to ADP, I also calculated the variance of where a player was selected in each mock draft. This will help identify players who the devy community has a wide range of opinions on or players who seem locked into a range of the draft, for now.
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The first five players all had very low variance scores. It seems most drafters agreed they should be selected in the top half of the first round, and rightfully so. It is hard to argue against any of these players as I am a big fan of each.
I am a little surprised Laviska Shenault was the top-ranked wide receiver as I have seen him a little undervalued in other conversations and drafts. I have Jerry Jeudy atop my own devy wide receiver rankings but Shenault is not too far behind.
Cam Akers seems to have slipped in rankings and devy drafts lately, even if it is only to the seventh spot in these results. Now could be a great time to buy him if you still believe in his talent. His current offensive situation is much worse than most of the other players in this first round.
Tua Tagovailoa was easily the player with the highest variance among the top 12, being selected 11th and second in the two mocks.
Round two is where we start to see a little more variance. Players in this range who stand out as screaming buys are Justyn Ross, A.J. Dillon, and Tyler Johnson. I would argue Ross should be in the first round. What he did as a freshman was elite and he gets to catch passes from Trevor Lawrence for two more years.
In my rankings, Dillon is closer to the running backs selected in the first round and easily over those taken ahead of him here in the second round.
Johnson would have been one of the darlings of this 2019 rookie class if he had declared for the NFL draft. He is not quite in the Jeudy/Moore/Ross/Edwards/Shenault wide receiver tier for me but he is close and deserves to be taken near the top of this round in my opinion.
The third round is still filled with a bunch of promising prospects but has more variance than the first two rounds. Wide receivers Henry Ruggs and Jhamon Ausbon saw dramatic differences in where they were selected in each mock.
Both Ausbon and Stephen Carr had rough seasons and dropped down rakings compared to where they were a year ago. Kennedy Brooks and Tylan Wallace are a few risers after strong seasons last year. I was surprised Wallace lasted so long in both mocks.
As expected, we continue to see more variance as we move down the board. We see an abundance of quarterbacks come off as there was a clear tier gap after Justin Herbert and Jake Fromm were selected in the early second round.
As the 2019 class heads to the NFL, the devy tight end landscape really dried up. We finally see our first one come off the board here, Washington’s Hunter Bryant. He is a talented receiver who missed a lot of last season due to knee surgery.
A few highly-recruited freshman running backs, John Emery and Zach Charbonnet, make an appearance as well. Keep an eye on Chuba Hubbard too, who figures to take over lead running back duties for Justice Hill at Oklahoma State. They could all be big risers this time next year.
If there is one player who stands out to me in this fifth round, it is Oregon State running back Jermar Jefferson. He was not an elite recruit coming out of high school, but he has great BMI and production scores. He ran for 1,380 yards and caught 25 passes as a freshman. His combination of size and receiving ability has me very intrigued.
Round Six and Beyond
In this range of the draft, I like to choose players I feel have a lot of upside or are anticipated to see an increased role heading into next year. Master Teague, Dameon Pierce, Keaontay Ingram, and Brian Robinson are a few I have my eye on this off-season.
I want to thank everyone who participated in these mock drafts and helped me gather this valuable data. Hopefully, it helps you prepare for upcoming devy drafts by projecting where players might be selected.