ADP is one of the most widely utilized tools for dynasty player valuation. Its purposes range from startup strategy development to starting basis for trade negotiations and much in between. As a key part of DLF’s industry-leading tools to help make you a better dynasty player, it’s important to understand all aspects of ADP to better utilize it.
Often, ADP is referred to as simply just a number. Mike Evans, for example, may have an ADP of 14.00, indicating he is, on average, expected to go at the beginning of the second round of startups. However, this may not necessarily be the case in all instances. One player may have a huge range of pick selections, while one may go in the same spot in every draft. So, how effective is ADP at understanding a specific player’s true value from league to league? In order to answer this question, we can use the Coefficient of Variation (Coef-Var) in our analysis.
Don’t be alarmed by what is potentially a new statistical term for you; it’s really easy to understand and use! The formula for the Coef-Var is simply a dataset’s standard deviation (Stdev) divided by its average (or mean). What this formula allows us to do is compare datasets with different averages. In our case, we can use it to compare two players with much different ADPs. For example, having a standard deviation of 5 when the mean in 10 is much different than if the mean was 150!
In this series, we’ll use the Coefficient of Variation to help us see which players in the dynasty landscape are the most and least consistently valued players. A low Coef-Var indicates a player is consistently valued, whereas a high Coef-Var indicates a player is inconsistently valued. Each month, we’ll dive into the top ten players in each category and see why that may be the case. Before we begin, there are two quick notes I want to mention!
- Only players in the top 200 of ADP qualify for this article, as passed that we may run into the “undrafted” issue.
- I’ve multiplied all the Coef-Vars by 100 to help distinguish between some pretty small numbers.
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Saquon Barkley, RB NYG
Mr. 1.01 himself, Barkley is the only player to be drafted at the same exact spot in every draft in February 2019. This actually occurred for the second straight month, as Barkley has been the top pick in every draft this year. Barkley managed to finish as a top-three running back in 2019 despite playing on an objectively bad Giants team. The Giants will be looking to improve their offensive line and quarterback in this upcoming off-season. At 22 years old, the sky is the limit for Barkley’s career. Dynasty owners know this and are consistently valuing him as the top asset in all of dynasty fantasy football.
Michael Gallup, WR DAL
Perhaps a bit of a surprise, Gallup takes the number two spot on the list of most consistently valued players this month. While many perhaps hoped Gallup would be the defacto WR1 in Dallas this season, Gallup performed admirably as a rookie once Amari Cooper entered the mix. Gallup has the looks of a quality number two receiver in the league for years to come, and it seems many dynasty owners feel the same. Valued as a WR5, dynasty owners agree Gallup is a solid depth piece and worthwhile prospect to have on your team.
Kerryon Johnson, RB DET
Often, when a player is getting a lot of hype, it’s common for them to have a wide range of valuation. This isn’t the case with Johnson, as many seem to be on board with his rising value. A high-end RB2 according to ADP, Johnson has the three-down upside dynasty owners want to see out of a young running back as well as the anticipated volume to make the pick worthwhile. As a second-year player, he brings a lot to the table, and dynasty owners agree on his current value.
Curtis Samuel, WR CAR
Another surprise to make the list, Samuel is a quality playmaker on a Panthers team that appears to be shifting mentality on offense. Once the “twin-towers” offense with Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess, this offense has completely changed course to focus on smaller, more dynamic playmakers. Samuel fits the bill perfectly. Valued similarly to the aforementioned Michael Gallup, dynasty owners agree that Samuel should be valued as a high-end WR5. With big-play upside and projected volume in a high-powered offense, the now third-year Samuel is poised to be a solid asset who dynasty owners can count on moving forward.
Kenyan Drake, RB MIA
Drake is a bit of an enigma in the fantasy world, so it’s interesting to see dynasty owners value him so consistently. Similarly to how Lamar Miller never got a significant workload in Miami, Drake has yet to see 200 touches in a season in his three-year career. However, Drake has displayed solid efficiency with his touches, averaging 5.4 yards per touch or higher in every season. It remains to be seen if the new regime in Miami will trust the former Alabama product more than the past regime did. Generally, dynasty owners are on board with valuing him in the mid-rounds of dynasty startups.
Mike Evans, WR TB
A staple top two round pick ever since his phenomenal rookie season, Evans finds himself consistently towards the top part of round two in February 2019. After the top tier of receivers are off the board, dynasty owners agree that Evans is among the top of the next group. On Twitter, there appear to be many opinions of Mike Evans. I know myself and DLF’s Peter Howard seem to be quite different in our evaluations. However, when it comes to startup drafts, Evans is one of the most consistently valued players.
Ian Thomas, TE CAR
In a relatively weak 2018 tight end class, one could make the argument that Thomas carries the most dynasty value of the bunch. Thomas came on strong towards the end of the season when teammate Greg Olsen reinjured his foot. From weeks 12-16 last season, Thomas finished as the TE10 in PPR scoring. As a young player with the potential to be a TE1 in this Panthers offense moving forward, dynasty owners are in agreement with his current valuation. If you are trying to trade for Thomas this off-season, you can expect his value to similar to his current ADP.
Ito Smith, RB ATL
Young players seem to be the theme of this value consistency article, as another second-year player makes the list. Smith has every opportunity in 2019 to showcase his skills with Tevin Coleman more than likely out the door. At times, Ito Smith even out-touched Coleman, especially in the red zone. If the Falcons use Smith at all similarly to how they used Coleman, dynasty owners are in for a treat in 2019. However, at current state, drafters are in agreement that he’s a later round target.
Kareem Hunt, RB FA
There’s a bit of a caveat with Hunt making the list, as February mock drafts for ADP were well past this range by the time the Hunt news broke. A new Cleveland Brown, many agree that his value has decreased since the signing. Sharing a backfield with Nick Chubb for (whatever games he’s not suspended during) the 2019 season may be hard to maintain even RB2 numbers. As this series progresses, it will be interesting to see if Hunt makes the list yet again in March and beyond.
Rashaad Penny, RB SEA
A polarizing pick at 1.02/1.03 in late rookie drafts coupled with an objectively disappointing rookie season, it’s again a bit of a surprise to see Penny make this list. Unable to beat out Chris Carson for touches in 2018, the former first-round NFL draft pick should have more opportunity moving forward. While Carson is a very good running back in his own right, dynasty owners seem on board with how Penny should be valued in this Seattle offense. While there definitely still are questions heading into next season, Penny’s valuation seems to be consistent from owner-to-owner.
ADP is more than just a number. Understanding the variance in draft capital each owner is spending on these dynasty assets is a crucial part of player analysis. For these players mentioned above, I would expect their trade values to be fairly consistent from league to league. ADP is often used as a starting point in forming trades. It’s a quick and easy way to see what players are valued in similar ranges. When forming those initial trades, if players are valued consistently from mock to mock, it’s a bit easier to trust the number ADP gives you.
One interesting note from the list as a final takeaway is that six of the ten players listed are going into their second seasons. Dynasty owners are generally viewing these young, hopefully rising assets similarly. This will be an interesting trend to monitor throughout the off-season through this article series. Are younger players the ones that are generally the most consistently valued amongst drafters? Why is it specifically second-year players? Let me know any thoughts you may have on this in the comments or on Twitter @FFzinger! Stay tuned as March ADP comes around for another edition of value consistency – I’ll also be tackling ADP’s least consistently valued players!