Normally I like to get this series our starting in late November each year.
The 2019 draft class is an odd bunch and so dependent on this year’s underclassmen with many decisions still looming. An earlier entry allows dynasty coaches to get a jump on the assessment of the incoming class and, potentially, trade preparations. But as I mentioned, the last weeks of the college football season were critical for that assessment and even as I write, some top names are still undeclared for the 2019 NFL Draft. While I still would prefer to get this into your hands earlier, it’s far more important to make sure I’m as accurate as possible.
Regardless, it’s time to start looking at the incoming rookie class more closely, those players which can shape your roster for years to come. Whether you brought home the championship, barely made the playoffs or were out of the running early, there’s much to be gained by surveying the incoming rookie class, its depth and the potential impact in fantasy.
What follows is my annual kick-off, of sorts, to the process leading up to the 2019 NFL Rookie Draft and fantasy rookie drafts that follow. This first part is a very general look at the overall depth of the class toward gauging potential value and impact. Following, I then begin poring through tape, articles and as much available information as I can to ascertain individual player value toward building profiles on the top players within each position for each discipline. More tape review and research will result in a top-30 overall ranking followed by a look at some players that which outside the top-30 who have upside. Other expanded rankings will follow based on results of my research. Following the NFL Draft, the pool of players are re-ranked for dynasty purposes.
So, hop on board and follow along as I start this process. This is why you play dynasty!
Just a few thoughts before we get started:
First and foremost, as should be the case in every year, do NOT get carried away. Keep your head in the game and realize that while there are certain to be impact rookies in any class, 2019 included, it’s very difficult to build a winning team with rookies as the foundation. A large majority bust outright and many others barely escape mediocrity. But a keen eye, mindful selection and a little luck can net you a long term asset, potentially as a cornerstone player.
Secondly, the Internet, Twitter and fantasy community in general are awash with self-proclaimed experts and overnight sensations who sell their own version of snake oil. Every year, the community falls in love with rookie prospects and the ‘research’ that follows starts with the love affair first and backs into the research and rating as opposed to the other way around. Choose who you follow very carefully and steer clear of the expert-du-jour or be prepared to pay the price. In many cases, you have to pay the price ($), up front, anyway.
Lastly, resist the urge to make research more complicated than it needs to be. Keep it simple! Find a site or individual that puts in the work, mix in your own thoughts/needs and don’t forget that NFL coaches and their staffs are paid a lot of money to get decisions correct. You don’t need a 100 page document, high priced service or a seat at the Combine to be successful with your draft picks. I’ve researched and read just about every available document looking for an edge and I can tell you, honestly, size or price will likely not materially improve your results. They may look great on paper but doesn’t necessarily equate to greater accuracy.
We here at DLF have been doing we what do since 2006 and many of us have been researching much longer than that. We hope you agree that we have quietly become a trusted source over the years and we certainly stand by our results.
Let’s get to work!
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2019 Draft Overall
Without having an accurate crystal ball to see how it all turns out, we’re left to judging the depth of a class, and its prospects, by what we see on the surface. It’s no different than any other year, but my first analysis of 2019 finds other years possessing far more intrigue than this year would seem to present.
Each year I like to perform a stratification of the incoming class toward determining the depth across the positions which ultimately yields my overall assessment draft rankings. As would be expected, no two drafts are the same, each possessing individual strengths and weaknesses and differing depths of talent. For 2019, I see a tremendous amount of risk across three of the four positions of quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end and very few marquee names. In holding a high draft selection, an owner wants to know that use of the pick is going to yield a good opportunity for a dynasty-level producer for a longer period of time. The stratification of drafts usually yield a number of headlining names to occupy the first three-to-four draft selections, followed by the next group of four-to-five players which are second-tier names within the class, finally yielding another tier of six-to-ten players which round out a good portion of the first two rounds. Beyond that number, we enter the territory of ‘best-guess’ based on research as to who will be difference makers at the next level. The depth of each class shrinks or extends this stratification.
2019 shows very few marquee level players at the top and a draft fraught with risk. I’ll get into the individual positions here shortly but my early assessment is not promising. This, of course, does not mean the 2019 draft class won’t possess impact players at the next level and this type of draft can be used to your advantage in fantasy, which I’ll get to in a moment, but this is not the year to be excited about high draft selections with the hope of it being a foundational class.
If I were to compare this class to that of a previous one, 2019 reminds me a bit, at best, of 2014, a class very weak on running back talent, possessing one strong tight end, almost no quarterback intrigue but with a number of potential upside receivers. I say “at best” because 2014 gave us Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Jr and Brandin Cooks. Davante Adams was also universally a second round fantasy selection. The headlining running backs were Carlos Hyde and Bishop Sankey. For what it’s worth, I do believe 2019’s running back class clearly carries more value and upside than that of 2014 but this year’s wide receivers will be hard-pressed to match 2014’s production to date.
Let’s go briefly into each position before wrapping up the initial assessment and determining how fantasy owners should prepare accordingly.
Quarterbacks
There’s no getting away from the fact that 2019 is a poor year for the quarterback position and its prospects almost entirely rest on the dynamic Dwayne Haskins (Ohio State) who has yet to declare. All indications are he will declare and in so doing will immediately jump to the top of rankings. Oregon’s Justin Herbert, once the top ranked prospect for 2019, announced he’ll be returning to school and will join what appears to be a very good group of quarterbacks for the 2020 NFL Draft. Beyond Haskins, Drew Lock, Daniel Jones and Will Grier mix in with other names to form this weak income class.
With many NFL teams in dire need at the position, you can still expect at least three quarterbacks to be selected in the first ten overall selections but that is not the same thing as saying there are three quarterbacks with top-ten talent. When Haskins declares, he’ll be far and away the best talent at the position, at least until I finish my research.
Running Backs
Fantasy rookie drafts still run through the running back position and 2019 would seem to have no true first-tier players at the position but a very wide band of tier-two and tier-three players. Perhaps as many as seven or or eight names could, arguably, compete to be first off the board in fantasy. In this way, 2019 looks a bit like 2008 or even 2018, save Saquon Barkley who was the 1.01 selection in almost every draft.
Yet undeclared Joshua Jacobs (Alabama) sits at the top of this class at the position but has competition from David Montgomery (Iowa St.) and Rodney Anderson (Oklahoma). Even fellow teammate Damien Harris (Alabama) sits atop some rankings at this juncture. For my money, Jacobs is the closest thing to a marquee name at the position for 2019. Should he return to Alabama, which is a possibility in that teammate Harris is headed to the NFL, we will be left with a broad group of names vying for top-off-the-board and a lot of risk at the top of fantasy drafts. And of course, I would be remiss in not mentioning that no position is more affected by the draft than that of running backs. Top names going to poor situations (Rashaad Penny) always shape the draft.
What I do like about 2019’s incoming running backs is the size distribution for the top names. The top echelon possesses players with prototypical NFL size, in my research that being at or greater than 212 lbs. as a rookie. Running backs do tend to gain muscle mass in the years following their rookie season. While there is lack of marquee names, 2019 does carry size which can increase the intrigue as the draft unfolds.
Remember, with running backs especially, talent usually percolates to the top over a longer period of time. Resist the temptation to prioritize starting situation for an inferior talent. I don’t expect any of this year’s runners will be drafted within the NFL’s first round.
Wide Receivers
The strength of 2019’s rookie class. The problem with this is that the receiver position, in most cases, is the hardest to project for fantasy production to the NFL. Much like the running back class, however, the size of the top names is impressive and they carry dynamic enough to provide a level of excitement.
Much like 2014, when receivers dominated the first round of fantasy rookie drafts, 2019 projects rather similarly. D.K Metcalf (Ole Miss), Kelvin Harmon (NC State) and N’Keal Harry (Arizona St.) headline this class but are closely followed by JJ Arcega-Whiteside (Stanford) and A.J. Brown (Ole Miss). As mentioned previously, all these receivers unofficially stand at or greater than 6’1″ and are north of 210 lbs. The next tier of names also carry great size and enough intrigue to provide value and upside well into fantasy’s second round.
The NFL Combine is going to play a major role in this year’s receiver rankings.
Tight End
I typically don’t spend much time on tight ends when researching as very few at the position transition well into the NFL. This year, Noah Fant is a name worth noting, perhaps the only one.
With many NFL teams needy at the position, Fant will likely hear his name called in the draft’s first round and should be a near-immediate starter. Fantasy prospects of tight ends are nearly impossible to project but much like Vernon Davis (2006) and Eric Ebron (2014), Fant has the skills and measureables to be a difference-maker early in his career.
I rarely draft tight ends for the reasons mentioned above, always preferring to let other coaches crack that nut and take the risk. Should Fant fall into the early second round, given my early projections, I’ve already seen enough to believe he could be a worthwhile risk. More on him in future articles.
Summary
I am not excited about the prospects of the 2019 rookie class. If pressed, my interest is peaked about the wide receivers and I reserve the opportunity to be more excited following my future rounds of tape review.
The wide receivers carry the size and, in many cases, the production against quality competition which can translate to the next level. But, as is the case with every draft, only a fraction of these players will go on to be household names in fantasy. Running back depth is solid but far from spectacular, not what high-draft-pick fantasy owners need as they look to rebuild or bolster flagging rosters. In today’s NFL, where teams often employ three runners in different capacities and roles, transcendent talent is the best path to consistent and noteworthy fantasy production. In the absence of this, it’s difficult to get excited about any prospect. Again, I’ll reserve my final assessment until much later but this class has a lot of ground to make up in my process.
At the quarterback position, with the exception of Haskins, I’ll punt and allow others to take the risk. Needy 2QB format players don’t have the luxury of waiting and there are open starting positions which could provide upside. But this year looks to be a crap-shoot at best.
At tight end, Noah Fant appears to be the real deal at a position that offers a high degree of risk.
In final summary, if you are a top performing team holding late first round or second round picks, you should be excited. In drafts with little top talent but a wide band of second-tier players, fantasy coaches often migrate to the best starting situation over better talent, pushing names down who would otherwise be selected more highly. It ten or twelve team leagues, top teams are going to have access to players who provide solid upside and not necessarily equivalent to their fantasy drafted slot.
If you are holding higher draft picks, though it’s still very early in my research, my recommendation would be to move these selections for known production or trade back to acquire more later selections unless you are receiver-needy and are unable to generate trade interest for younger upside receivers already producing. There is time, however. Draft fervor begins picking up shortly after the Combine and armchair analysts will be quick to anoint these unproven rookies the “next”. Capitalize on this fervor where and when you can to maximize the value of high(er) draft picks. There is no need to over-react to what you are reading here at this point.
Even in the best and deepest of years, draft picks are a risky proposition; 2019 looks to be even riskier. In the near future, I’ll begin breaking down each of the positions to separate the contenders from the pretenders. If you’ve followed me in the past, you know full well I’m not afraid to call it exactly as I see it, even if it flies in the face of popular opinion (Trent Richardson, Eddie Lacy, Courtland Sutton, etc.).
Stay tuned ….
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- 2021 Dynasty Rookie Draft First Look: Wide Receivers - January 9, 2021
- Lineup Advice:Week 17 – Sound Off! - December 30, 2020
- Lineup Advice:Week 16 - December 23, 2020

Ashley Moser
January 6, 2019 at 1:12 pm
Great article Jeff. With this year’s title under my belt I’m holding late picks in my IDP league. Any LBs worthy of the 1.12? I usually wouldnt consider an IDP this early but if the offensive talent is as bad as it seems I’d rather overdraft a solid/elite LB rather than throw a dart for a RB or WR (I’m fairly stacked at both positions).
Fireman Ed
January 6, 2019 at 6:34 pm
Devin White could be, assuming he declares…and your scoring and starting requirements justify a LB that early. Outside of that I don’t think so based on talent, and i’m always hesitant to draft someone based on perceived positive draft destination. Josh Allen appears to have the talent to provide quality tackle floor, as well as pass rush upside, assuming your scoring would reward that type of player (i.e. check where a Khalil Mack ranks). Outside of that, I would stay away from LB in the 1st personally.
Jeff Haverlack
January 7, 2019 at 7:03 am
I never recommend any IDP players that highly until we see where they land. We will, of course, cover the incoming group of IDPs but I NEVER recommend a very high selection of an IDP player unless you have a VERY odd system which overweights IDP. Each year, I can build a competitive IDP team even if I didn’t draft a single one and had to build it off of the waiver wire. Point disparity between players is very low with most IDP systems and there’s so much change week over week to take advantage of.
Even for elite IDP linebackers, I will rarely dip in before, at the very earliest, the very end of the second round.
Don
January 6, 2019 at 4:10 pm
A paywall…for real?
Jeff Haverlack
January 7, 2019 at 7:05 am
Yes Don. We’ve been a subscription site since 2012 and we work VERY hard for our Premium members to give them an edge, 365 days a year. To that end, we make sure our content is geared for them toward that edge otherwise ANYONE could get it. DLF has thousands of happy members and they know the level of service, interaction and content which makes DLF very different from any other site. We’re VERY interactive with our membership.
If we gave away the content, our members lose that edge.
Thanks for the question, I do understand where you are coming from!
noneother
January 7, 2019 at 9:26 am
Hey Don, it’s worth it. It’s a fun site. And hasn’t yet broken my budget.
Highly recommend!!
Korey Jarrach
January 7, 2019 at 8:47 pm
I’m going to add on there. Worth the money to be part of the community here! Lots of great writers and information. Plus takes a lot of the research out of it for me.
Billie Renfro
January 8, 2019 at 6:54 pm
Also adding on, it’s definitely worth the money. Also, DLF will have offers, for example, last season, if you make a first time deposit into draft kings, you get a one year free premium subscription, so you could end up getting a deal. Either way, it’s inexpensive and worth it.
Andrew Bienias
January 6, 2019 at 9:20 pm
Great read Jeff! I always love reading your articles late at night away from the wife and kids. 12 team .5 PPR league over here. I’m very strong at RB and weak at WR. Should I take a risk with Metcalf, Harmon or Harry with the 1.02? Or attempt to get my hands on Calvin Ridley or D.J. Moore? As of right now the owners of those two are fairly reluctant.
Thanks!
Jeff Haverlack
January 7, 2019 at 7:13 am
Hey Andrew … thanks so much for the content. I always love writing them in the same way … though this one was done during the day as I was very focused and wanted to capitalize. I love this time of year!
Good question. It’s a harder question since the players you name in trade are rookies from last year. But that said, I ALWAYS favor “known production” over “unknown”. You get to know how the player performed in his current system, the current status of that team, the quarterback quality, etc. If there is a transcendent talent available (Saquon Barkley, Calvin Johnson, etc.) then that skews things but I don’t see that this year.
But the 1.02 is a very high pick and it will carry greater value than even Calvin Ridley or D.J. Moore. While they did well and realistically may be worth the 1.02, I wouldn’t be quick to move it simply for either of those players. The value of the pick will rise until just before the draft. So wheel and deal to maximize value to someone who wants to move up for one of the RBs … you may be able to get Ridley or Moore + something like 1.08. Give or take.
Be very patient with that 1.02… value will rise especially after the Combine. You’ll be able to move it eventually for a lot more.
AnnabelleCarroll
January 7, 2019 at 1:46 am
fukuin1996_ >> http://icu7.icu
mike fredrickson
January 7, 2019 at 5:24 am
I finished 8th of 10. I pick #3. where will james conner, philip lindsay, tyler boyd rank with top rookie wr? we draft rookies/free agents and have no waivers during season
Jeff Haverlack
January 7, 2019 at 7:20 am
So hard to say Mike depending on your scoring system and even the coaches in your league. But, Conner and Lindsay are likely going to be above the 1.01 value this year … especially Conner. Lindsay will be right there as well in PPR formats but probably a bit lower, I’d guess in the 1.02 or 1.03 range
mike fredrickson
January 7, 2019 at 6:18 pm
thanks! superflex ppr
mike fredrickson
January 7, 2019 at 6:20 pm
if conner #1 and lindsay #3 who is #2?
Jeff Haverlack
January 7, 2019 at 8:01 pm
That’s all going to change after the Combine, probably Josh Jacobs, Montgomery or DK Metcalf at this point. I’m leaning Jacobs but I think he might return to school with Harris departing as a senior.
Travis Billiter
January 7, 2019 at 6:09 am
Great article. Maybe I’m spoiled from the past few great classes, but I’m actively shopping firsts in my non-IDP leagues, especially leagues where I’m either fringe playoff or perennial playoff contender as I think I can get more value in parting with my first this year than holding it. That said, I’m looking to get 2nd and later picks because I think there are a lot of “lotto ticket” players to be had much later in the draft.
I even shipped away a first for a QB and Joey Bosa in one of my IDP leagues. I just don’t see a lot that catches my eye early in the draft. Regarding the RB class, what are your thoughts on Holyfield out of Georgia? Is a 3rd and short plodder or do you think he could see some early down work on a team in need of a bruiser?
Jeff Haverlack
January 7, 2019 at 7:24 am
it’s a good strategy Travis. It’s never a bad idea to get known quantity over unknown and let others take the risk of the drafted player. This draft has a very broad value range and I’m happy I’ve moved many first round picks to get more later while landing good players and known production in the past.
Holyfield is an interesting prospects and one of the ones who could rocket with a good Combine. I’m anxious to research more of him. I’ll certainly be sharing my process and research as I do it.
Travis Billiter
January 7, 2019 at 10:16 am
Thanks Jeff. Looking forward to it!
John Scott
January 7, 2019 at 6:31 am
So I have 4 first round picks this year inlcuding 1-3 and number 8. I am thinking about trading at least two of them . My team is pretty stacked honestly.
Qbs: Jimmy G, Wentz, and Rosen
Rbs, Barkley, Gurley, Mixon, Gus Edwards
Wrs: Diggs, Thielin, Moore, Pettis, Kirk
TE: Kittle, Henry
I am leaning towards either two WRs in round one or a WR and Montgomrey, what are your thoughts?
Jeff Haverlack
January 7, 2019 at 7:27 am
Wow …. great team while also having those picks. I’d even consider shopping all of them or all but one and keep the 1st overall so you can have THE pick of your choice. Little reason to not move those unknown quantities for known production. I like what I see from Montgomery but I wouldn’t call him transcendent in any way. I need to see official weights and measures as we head into the Combine to go with my research before I’ll know too much more.
Looking forward to researching more on this class, especially for those prospects who are going to fall a bit but be great values in fantasy
John Scott
January 8, 2019 at 9:53 am
yeah i have wheeled and dealed, over past few seasons to get to this point, including picking up jimmy pre trade last year, got gurley in his down year, mixon in draft two years ago, and no one believed me that kittle would be great, and got wentz after draft before he blew up big time. but yeah i am looking to acquire another wr, and or trade into next years draft as well.
Jeff Haverlack
January 7, 2019 at 7:27 am
Wow …. great team while also having those picks. I’d even consider shopping all of them or all but one and keep the 1st overall so you can have THE pick of your choice. Little reason to not move those unknown quantities for known production. I like what I see from Montgomery but I wouldn’t call him transcendent in any way. I need to see official weights and measures as we head into the Combine to go with my research before I’ll know too much more.
Looking forward to researching more on this class, especially for those prospects who are going to fall a bit but be great values in fantasy
Kyle Mills
January 7, 2019 at 10:36 am
Jeff,
I currently have the 1.08 this year but have 3 2020 1sts. With the expected talent pool that will be in the 2020 class, especially at the RB position, the value of these 2020 picks is off the charts in my league.
People have begun dangling like mid-late 2019 1sts + an intriguing FLEX player (think Duke Johnson) for 1 of my 2020 1sts.
What are your thoughts on a move like this? I know you have mentioned how you always favor known production over unknown assets. But then again the 2020 draft will have some absolute studs in it. I’d love to hear your opinion!
Jeff Haverlack
January 7, 2019 at 8:07 pm
I need transcendent talent to be really excited about a draft … and then enough depth to make interesting. 2020 is looking pretty darned good as of now. A lot can change but it finally looks like we’re going to have another RB class and good QBs as well. Receivers look so-so to me at this point. It honestly would be dependent on what players are being dangled. Don’t forget that you still can win this next year so if you are getting a 1st and known production, that can be intriguing.
But … you also have to keep it fun and I have zero problem with coaches hoarding draft picks if that is what is fun. I have one team, my main one in fact, where I assemble the team based on my favorite players even if it means I’m not as strong. That is the team I watch on Sundays.
If you have multiple 2020 picks, move just one of them and better your team for this next year
Thomas Flowers
January 7, 2019 at 1:37 pm
Would you say 1.04 is worth it for fournette with the things going on with him right now or just stand pat? I have mixon cook and guice as my top 3 rbs but beyond that not much depth besides breida.
Jeff Haverlack
January 7, 2019 at 8:10 pm
That depends on who you ask and if you need WRs. 1.04 in this draft is not ideal in my mind with where I’m at now in my research. Fournette’s ankles are an issue but I would consider taking the Fournette side there. Mixon and Cook are a good core for sure. It’s not a slam dunk but I lean toward acquiring Fournette for that price.
Thomas Flowers
January 8, 2019 at 6:56 pm
Im alright at wr with adams juju cooks moore and depth beyond that. Thanks for the help.
Will Finnegan
January 7, 2019 at 2:30 pm
Traded Zeke week 4 for Kupp, James White and 2 Firsts ended up getting 3 and 6.
I am really looking forward to adding these young upside WRs.
Jeff Haverlack
January 7, 2019 at 8:12 pm
1.03 is going to net you and intriguing WR or one of the top two RBs. 1.06 will be a bit of a crap shoot and I’d lean toward moving it if you could get value but don’t do so right away … wait for the pick to gain value after the Combine.
Matt McCool
January 8, 2019 at 1:11 pm
With Draftbreakdown dead, are you finding any other good tape alts. or just YouTube?
Jeff Haverlack
January 8, 2019 at 1:21 pm
YouTube is my main place but I’ve found tape all over the place. I prefer to not only watch highlight reels though … I like to see how the players block, their dropped passes, how they run routes when they aren’t the primary target, etc. Sometimes it’s hard to find raw tape like that though. But for things like hands catching, route stems, breaks, IQ, lateral agility, patience, arm strength, throwing foundation, etc. etc. etc., you can still get what you need for about 80% of it from highlight reel tapes on YouTube.
Ryan Parish
January 16, 2019 at 7:08 am
I know you said you don’t study TEs all that much, but I’m in a league where TEs get 1.5 ppr and with my top TE this year being Jared Cook and my late round stash from last year (Goedert at the end of round 4) still behind Ertz, I will likely need to dip my toe in the pool. Have you any thoughts on Irv Smith Jr?
Jeff Haverlack
January 19, 2019 at 4:04 pm
I like Fant more than Smith but Smith is pretty close and is picking up momentum. I favor TE systems I can bank on like GB, BAL, DAL and these two are close enough to choose either one that goes to a good situation, this year that being GB.