As a follow-up to last week’s “8 Players I’m Buying” missive, it’s time to turn the tables and highlight some of those players that scare me enough that I’ll be looking to move them in the weeks leading up to the NFL Draft, if I haven’t already.
Rather than bore you with an overly long introduction, simply read the beginning of the article linked above as it all still applies to the opposite side of the coin. In short, these are players who I feel carry value now beyond what they will by this time next year, for any number of factors. Again, much like the list of players I’m seeking to acquire, the list of players I’m looking to sell can fluctuate wildly week-in, week-out, for any number of reasons. Selling players takes a bit more time, effort and finesse as the prospects of a sold player can change very quickly and it’s never fun to see a player you’ve moved on from lighting it up for a fellow coach. For that reason, I tread more lightly when it comes to moving players out and as much as I’d like to be well ahead of the curve, I’m far more aggressive with acquisition.
Here are eight players I’m leaving in my rear-view mirror:
Marcus Mariota, QB TEN
Age: 25 DLF Rank: QB19
Yet to play a full 16-game season, every week with Mariota at the helm is like a spin on the wheel of mystery fantasy production, if he actually suits up. Combine that with his 11:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 2,528 passing yards and you’ll find yourself in a hole in your match-up each week if you’re forced to trot him as your starter. He has his moments but, unfortunately, there are too many (8) ten-point-or-less moments as well. Your QB1 can’t put up single digits in 50% of his games and carry an injury designation nearly as often. The problem with selling Mariota is his value is too low to get much in return but if you play in a 2QB league or your league has owners desperate at the position, it’s time to move on. Mariota is the prototypical running quarterback without the size to do so effectively for a long period of time.
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Kirk Cousins, QB MIN
Age: 30 DLF Rank: QB10
Truth be told, I’ve already purged myself of Cousins in all leagues so I have nothing left to sell. Cousins did finish 2018 as the QB9 in most popular formats but following an extremely productive start to his Minnesota career in 2018, when he averaged nearly 30 fantasy points per game, he quickly fell to a level of under-performance and would only eclipse 30 points once more (week 12) over the remaining games, ending with a four-game stretch averaging an extremely pedestrian 17.5 points. Given the receiving options and running game present, something is amiss. The problem with selling Cousins is that those same offensive weapons provide significant weekly upside and it’s not easy to move on from a quarterback in fantasy unless you have significant depth. In 2QB leagues, Cousins will continue to carry an inflated value and his numbers do pass the eye test. In 2018, he produced 4,298 yards, 30 touchdowns to only 10 interceptions. Selling Cousins here is much more a function of unloading a borderline QB1 player to acquire other upside assets who have greater field potential, as long as you have a more productive, or equal, QB1. Cousin’s contract is for a fully guaranteed $84M over three years and he’s not a free agent until after the 2020 season. The comparisons to Tony Romo and his inability to win the big game are not far off the mark at this juncture. Something is keeping Cousins from consistent production and I don’t want any part of what is coming.
Tevin Coleman, RB ATL
Age: 25 DLF Rank: RB20
Hear me out on this one for a bit before leaping to any conclusions. I feel bad with Coleman as I’ve been touting him as a “buy” based on his free agency status in 2019. Certain to be with a new team come kick-off of the 2019 season, Coleman will compete for every-down duties with his new club and will turn only 26 years of age this April. There is, undoubtedly, upside to Coleman’s production potential. He averaged 4.8 ypc. on 167 totes in 2018, scoring four touchdowns. He also chipped in 32 receptions for 276 yards and another five touchdowns. Those totals are enough to garner significant interest but the real question is whether he’s an every-down player or a role player similar to fellow free agent T.J. Yeldon. As much as I wanted to see a three-down player, watching Coleman in 2018 leads me to believe he’s a part-time player behind a more physical runner. Immediately, Baltimore comes to mind and the Ravens also have the scheme to utilize his pass-catching ability. My short story on Coleman is that his raw numbers aren’t representative of his upside potential in my estimation. For that reason, while I’m not out to move him under just any circumstance, I’m certainly going to float his free agency status, along with his 2018 production, to see if I can generate trade interest for a veteran player in another area of need. If I could move Coleman’s risky-upside for a player such as Chris Godwin, Jarvis Landry or even the flagging Corey Davis, I’m willing to make the move and allow my fellow coach to take the risk.
Royce Freeman, RB DEN
Age: 22 DLF Rank: RB26
While the fantasy fervor was running rampant on Freeman’s Denver Bronco selection during the 2018 NFL Draft, I was steadfast in my belief that he was far more hype than substance. Living in the Pacific Northwest, I see a lot of Oregon Duck football and the player I saw in his final collegiate season didn’t resemble the one I saw in his first two, the decline beginning in his third. He added weight and too often looked like heavy-legged mud-runner, likely due to a heavy workload over his four years at the school, racking up 947 carries and 79 receptions. I saw very little burst, lateral agility or dynamic remaining. To his credit, he did manage a 4.0 ypc. average with five touchdowns playing behind Phillip Lindsay but the runner I saw in his final year at Oregon, now at 238 lbs., still remains. As a rookie, Freeman will still carry significant value. If I can extract that value, I’m moving him for known productivity elsewhere. In the end, I don’t want poor-dynamic part-time backs clogging my roster and I don’t see upside enough to in Freeman to not consider a sale.
David Johnson, RB ARI
Age: 27 DLF Rank: RB9
Johnson hasn’t looked right since returning from his lost 2017 season. Head coach Steve Wilks is out, rookie quarterback Josh Rosen regressed as the year played out and Larry Fitzgerald looks poised to finally hang’em up rather than endure another season of rebuilding with little near-term hope in sight. The offensive line looked like a shell of its former self and Johnson’s 3.6 ypc. career-low average was the result. To his credit, he still amassed 940 yards on 258 carries in addition to 50 receptions and combined for a total of 10 touchdowns. While it is now, perhaps, a year too late, there’s still time to capitalize on his name value be very wary of poachers. There’s another year of big change in store in the desert and it looks to be a long and painful road for the next two years at least. Now 27, if you are able to receive RB1 value for Johnson’s RB2 future, I’d pounce on it. He did finish as the PPR RB9 but I just don’t see much, if any, upside in this production with far more downside risk due to offensive dynamic, or lack of. A sale of Johnson is predicated upon receiving true RB1 value, in the neighborhood of his beginning-of-2018 top-five ranking. He’s signed in Arizona through 2020.
Antonio Brown, WR PIT
Age: 30 DLF Rank: WR7
This is far more a function of age progression and mental state over that of declining potential. It’s about getting great value for a top player now rather than waiting for the inevitable fade which should occur within the next year following his age-31 season. Fresh off a 15 touchdown campaign, his career high, Brown also reeled in triple digit (104) receptions for the sixth season in a row and fell just shy of 1,300 yards. Ben Roethlisberger is not certain to return after a painful finish to 2018 and chemistry between he and Brown appears to be on the ropes. That said, the cap hit the Steelers would incur makes it very unlikely that Brown suits up for another team in 2019 unless he’s willing to restructure his contract with Pittsburgh to facilitate a move. Regardless, Brown’s mental state doesn’t seem well suited to share the field with a rising star in Juju Smith-Schuster and he’s quickly become another diva receiver. This played out in the final games of 2018 ultimately leading to Brown being deactivated prior to kickoff of the Steelers’ last game vs. the Panthers. Competitive teams probably can’t afford to move Brown here, but the time has come to move on while compensation-return remains a very high likelihood.
A.J. Green, WR CIN
Age: 31 DLF Rank: WR15
In another move similar to that of Antonio Brown, I’ve moved on from A.J. Green in all formats as the soon-to-be 31 year-old receiver continues to lose his luster while his DLF ADP (34) has now fallen to a career low and seems to be losing value at break-neck speed. Green has one year left on his contract and is a free agent in 2020. Fresh off a nine-game season, he’s only played a full 16 games in two of his previous five years. Quarterback concerns persist and it is not out of the question the Bengals could decide to move on from the Red Rifle Andy Dalton though it has been reported that he’ll return for at least one more year. For Green, it’s possible an argument could be made for an acquisition on the back of a disappointing season but to do so would mean placing a bet on the belief he’ll play a full season and score double-digit touchdowns in 2019, a feat he has only performed once (2015, 10) over his past five season. This is another marquee-name sale in order to capture value ahead of any further decline. As is the case with Antonio Brown, there’s no need for a fire sale as both players still carry name recognition and production-potential enough to produce well under the right circumstances in 2019.
Courtland Sutton, WR DEN
Age: 23 DLF Rank: WR23
I’m fully aware this is an unpopular call – no different than my value on him as he entered the NFL Draft out of SMU. I watched as much of his college work, in addition to follow-on research, as any receiver in previous years and I came away with a risk-reward profile such that I couldn’t justify a selection in the first round of fantasy drafts. That said, once a player reaches the NFL, anything can happen. But what I’ve seen has supported everything I saw while at SMU. Love his size, hands and he’s not without upside but he must get stronger off the line of scrimmage and his leaping ability is not elite as his size would suggest. His route stems aren’t efficient and he lacks suddenness. At this point in his development, he looks like a poor-man’s Corey Davis, perhaps with as much upside. In either case, his second year will be extremely important as he attempts to live up to his pre-draft hype. On the year, he tallied 42 receptions, 704 yards and four touchdowns. Sutton should carry as much value as he did prior to the beginning of the season and may have even seen a level of inflation considering the Emmanuel Sanders injury.
Honorary Mention
Leonard Fournette, RB JAX
Corey Davis, WR TEN
Cam Newton, QB CAR
Mark Ingram, RB NO
Hope you enjoyed this listing of players I’m seeking to move if the price-is-right. I’m will now turning my full attention to the 2019 NFL Draft!
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You can find Jeff on Twitter at @dlf_jeff
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Ryan Trimble
January 2, 2019 at 8:19 am
Great article, need to update “Corey Davis, WR DEN” at the end though
Jeff Haverlack
January 2, 2019 at 10:28 am
Thanks for the catch!
Sam Stout
January 2, 2019 at 8:24 am
I agree with your entire article other than Courtland Sutton. Good read.
Jeff Haverlack
January 2, 2019 at 10:30 am
My view on Sutton isn’t a popular one but unfortunately it comes as a result of watching just about every snap of his SMU career and reading a lot of pro/con research on him. After doing my own research, I just wasn’t able to draft him unless he fell into the second round of fantasy drafts, and even then …. not until pick 13 or 14, in that range. If he’s able to develop though, he’s got everything else he needs. But that could be said about dozens of receivers each year …. but at least he has a starting role.
Gregory Marshall
January 2, 2019 at 3:38 pm
I agree on all especially Sutton. As someone who live in DFW I went to several SMU games and I came away time scratching my head.
When you look at the individual games SMU clearly tried to inflate his numbers when they played much lesser talented teams. Jeff, you have a lot of resources at your disposal just do the research and you’ll find that Sutton is nothing but hype and for absolutely no reason. If a WR fails to produce at an elite or even high number in college how is he going to produce in the NFL? Has a WR ever failed to play at a high level only to produce against NFL DBs? I can’t think of any.
GM
Nick LoCoco
January 2, 2019 at 9:13 am
I agree with all including Courtland Sutton, whom I own. Hard to believe his season stat line as bad as he looked most of the time. Most rookie wideouts with that type of line do pop the second year but I’m just not a believer.
Jeff, is there a Buying article too?
Jeff Haverlack
January 2, 2019 at 10:24 am
The buying article was last week Nick
Jeff Haverlack
January 2, 2019 at 10:31 am
I just linked that article in this one Nick … I forgot to link it when I mentioned it at the top of this one. Thanks!
Ben Dreslinski
January 2, 2019 at 9:20 am
So thoughts on Tevin Coleman’s value? Trade him away now or wait till he lands on a team? Also been loving the recent articles!
Jeff Haverlack
January 2, 2019 at 10:33 am
This really depends on your depth at running back and what you’d get in return. I still love players that get a new catalyst to become more productive but what I saw this year gave me great pause. If you’ve got great depth and don’t need him, trade him away if you can get good value in return in KNOWN production. I wouldn’t trade him away for a draft pick unless there was a player I really wanted and I just don’t see that this year. So, float his name out there with the fact he’ll be a free agent next year and a “sure starter” (it’s up to the other coach to believe you or not) and see what offers you get. But first know what you need on your roster.
Ben Dreslinski
January 2, 2019 at 11:53 am
Gotcha thanks for the advice!
tina kampa
January 2, 2019 at 4:54 pm
well, i am in trouble…in one of my leagues (super bowl champ), i own AJG, Antonio and Sutton
i already traded Tevin…
on another team…what RB do you think i could get for DJ and 1.10? thanks for the great articles
Jeff Haverlack
January 3, 2019 at 12:23 pm
Hey Tina, firstly, just because I’m selling doesn’t mean you need to be. There’s nothing wrong with holding those players and seeing if they perform again. It’s far more a function of advancing age, production and what I feel the future holds for these players and I could very well be wrong. It’s the nature of doing what I do. That said, what you can get for players is largely dependent on the other owners in your league and their respective situations. I wouldn’t advise trading DJ and 1.10 if it’s going to leave a hole at RB for you …. at least if you’re going to need to fill it with another RB. This upcoming draft is too thin on talent so if you need another RB, see if you can get younger for DJ and 1.10 but that is going to be difficult given DJ’s season. If you are flush with talent at the position, then target a young productive receiver in the top 15 or higher and go from there. You don’t want to cut bait on players just to cut bait … make sure you are getting known production back in return unless you are rebuilding. Even then, you have to be very careful as young players and draft picks can be very unproven
Corbin Nicholl
January 2, 2019 at 6:15 pm
Is Doug Baldwin a hold or should I flip him for Pettis? I think Pettis can be the real deal.
Mitch Skwer
January 2, 2019 at 6:27 pm
you flip him for pettis immediately if someone offers that
Nick LoCoco
January 2, 2019 at 6:38 pm
For sure. I think I’d rather have Pettis than Sutton too.
Jeff Haverlack
January 3, 2019 at 12:25 pm
I think it’s very soon on Pettis to know it will work out for you but Baldwin is not aging well and if you don’t trade him now, you’re going to get a lot less value. Pettis has shown well of late and it’s not a horrible trade but you have to recognize the fact that Pettis may not pan out as anything more than a WR3/WR4., and could just disappear altogether. That’s always the problem with trading away production for a chance at similar or more production but at a much younger age.
it’s a worthy gamble to make that trade in my mind.
Billie Renfro
January 2, 2019 at 8:39 pm
Good article and I agree with most. The one that I’m going to try to sell off of my teams is R.Freeman, basically for all the reasons that you listed. Other than injury concerns, I don’t think Philip Lindsey is going away and I don’t know that Freeman can take advantages of it, even if Lindsey is hurt. I’m definitely planning on moving some Freeman shares. I’m also going to float some of my AB shares out there, just to see what offers I might get. It’s pretty much downhill for him as he’s put up such big numbers that it will be hard for him to replicate them for much longer and now it seems like he’s become even more of a diva, so I’m not selling for cheap but if I get some strong offers, I’ll sell.
Jeff Haverlack
January 3, 2019 at 7:22 am
Very much agree with you Billie. I’ve moved on from AB myself and his value is already coming down. I traded him in one league for Kupp and a relatively high 1st but Kupp went down with an ACL a week later. It’s a league where I took over a bad team and had a dispersal draft so I needed to move on from the aging players
Jay Stoltenburg
January 4, 2019 at 5:47 pm
I’ve been seriously considering moving AB the last couple of weeks and am weak at TE in a TE premium league (1.5 PPR). Looking to offer him in a trade for Kittle. Thoughts?
Jeff Haverlack
January 5, 2019 at 9:46 am
Kittle has taken his position by storm and I’m not against making that move. AB may or may not have another great year but the end is getting closer and a change of scenery is coming which doesn’t guarantee success especially if he’s moved to SF in a division with good corners.
Jay Stoltenburg
January 5, 2019 at 4:32 pm
My thoughts exactly. We have witnessed his production drop significantly when Ben is not under center and I need a reliable TE in a bad way. TE was the difference between “winning” runner up and WINNING a championship! After Delanie Walker suffered a season ending injury in week 1, I was relying on a banged up Vance McDonald and the Bronco rotation of injured TE’s between Butt, Heuerman and yes…….Matt LaCosse!
Mark Wilcox
January 3, 2019 at 4:48 pm
What do you think I should aim for if I am looking to unload a Fournette/ Corey Davis package? Been #1 seed in my leauge (no championships D,= ) two years in a row and team is pretty stacked in almost all positions) RB would be a potential spot to upgrade without Fournette or maybe even Matt Ryan/Jamies Winston upgrade at QB
Jeff Haverlack
January 4, 2019 at 6:07 am
So many of the specifics come down to the operation M.O. of your coaches and league in general. If you’re already stacked, the first thing you need to do is to identify the one area you need most help in and target that position but leveraging the deepest part of your depth. But, if you’re already stacked, you can also take on more risk and don’t really need to force any moves … meaning you don’t need to sell Fournette at his low or Corey Davis as he’s going into his third year. They both still have upside. But if you could trade them and their risk both away and land someone like Michael Thomas or a Patrick Mahomes, then it can make some sense.
Chris Pellegrini
January 4, 2019 at 5:32 am
Totally agree on Brown. Just a shame he is pulling the diva attitude now, it highlights his immaturity and tags him as a sell for more owners, diminishing his value.
Jeff Haverlack
January 4, 2019 at 6:09 am
Hey Chris … he’s had the diva tag actually throughout his career but it’s been very soft and mostly under the surface. But he’s known as a high maintenance player. What ends up happening is that money and spotlight make the player more of what he already is, really brings it to the surface. I believe now that he’s done in Pittsburgh and won’t be back …. don’t think they can bring him back and they’ve learned about distractions now via Bell. I don’t like 30-31 year old players changing teams and thinking they’ll be as productive.
Jay Coffey
January 5, 2019 at 3:42 pm
I’ve already moved on from Corey Davis, traded him mid-season for Chris Godwin. Love Godwin’s potential as the Buc”s # 2 wr compared to Davis as the Titan’s #1 wr. Also Godwin is 1 year younger than Davis.
Matt Grove
January 7, 2019 at 12:05 pm
Good article, but no one in their right mind is giving up Landry for Tevin Coleman.
Jeff Haverlack
January 7, 2019 at 8:31 pm
I’ve seen worse but I sure wouldn’t. But I could see someone really deep in WR that is desperate for RB help biting on that. Would be a mistake before seeing his landing spot and even then ….
Thomas Flowers
January 7, 2019 at 1:41 pm
Would you consider juju, not necessarily a sell, but if AB is traded possibly a sell high? I could see a dip in production if he has to draw the doubles AB was seeing and with big ben nearing retirement i was thinking now could be the time to sell juju.
Jeff Haverlack
January 7, 2019 at 8:32 pm
You’d be talking to the wrong guy for that. I love what I see out of JuJu and his size is perfect for his role … not to mention he’s so young. That said, losing AB would be a blow, little question about that but not enough to make me sell on him. Ben retiring is an issue too but it looks like he’ll be back for at least one more
Ryan Barnt
February 9, 2019 at 6:29 pm
Hey Jeff,
Just tweeted at you… thanks for the quick reply… what are your thoughts on this trade, 1.0 PPR…
Giving up… Baker, Conner & Njoku
Will still have QB… Roethlisberger, Lamar Jackson & Teddy Bridgewater… RB… Barkley, CMC, Breida, Damien Williams, etc… TE… Ertz, Herndon & Ian Thomas…
Receiving… Goff (He’s pushing for Rivers) & Michael Thomas
Ryan Barnt
February 9, 2019 at 6:37 pm
Oops… should have mentioned that it’s a 1QB leaugue…
My WRs… AB, Mike Evans, Robby Anderson, Golden Tate, John Brown, Marquise Lee, Deon Cain, Curtis Samuel, Zay Jones, MVS & J Reynolds…
Jeff Haverlack
February 10, 2019 at 7:37 am
That’s an interesting trade. I wouldn’t take Rivers and would keep it at Goff … and I like Goff more than Baker though Baker’s upside/ceiling may be greater, hard to tell right now. I’ll take Goff. Thomas for Conner and Njoku – In a vacuum it’s a bit risky but I always like getting the best player and in a PPR I’d have Thomas well over Conner. Losing Njoku isn’t an issue with your youth at TE and Ertz.
You may be a shy on RB depth but as it is you are a bit shy on good WR depth as well but have upside and your roster is good as long as you don’t need the depth.
I’m a bit nervous of Conner so I’d do this deal. But if he swaps out Goff for Rivers, I’m out.
Ryan Barnt
February 10, 2019 at 1:03 pm
Much appreciated Jeff! Exactly the advice I needed… Thank you for the quick response so I know how to move forward!