JK Dobbins signs with Denver: The Dynasty Fantasy Football Impact
Every once in a while, the dynasty landscape throws you a curveball that buckles your knees and freezes you for a second. A move like that happened today when the Denver Broncos signed running back JK Dobbins to a one-year deal. It’s a signing that didn’t exactly come out of nowhere as they’d been rumored to have interest in him, but still throws a pretty significant wrench into a lot of the plans of dynasty managers everywhere, especially those who have already completed their rookie drafts (we’re looking at you, RJ Harvey managers). Let’s break down the move and take a look at the values of those players affected by the signing.
JK Dobbins, RB DEN
There has never been any doubting the ability of Dobbins. A second round pick of the Ravens in 2020, he burst onto the scene that season, posting 805 rushing yards and nine touchdowns on a robust six yards per carry. He also added 18 catches for another 120 yards, becoming the more exciting part of a running back tandem that also featured Gus Edwards. Dynasty managers quickly traded anything and everything to get shares of Dobbins, thinking he could very well be the next big thing in dynasty leagues. Unfortunately, Dobbins has just not been able to stay on the field and fulfill that promise as he endured a torn hamstring, torn ACL/LCL, and the dreaded torn Achilles, limiting him to just nine games over three years with Baltimore before they let him walk in free agency before last season.
Speaking of last year, Dobbins was one of the best stories in fantasy football as he posted a career-high 905 rushing yards and nine touchdowns for the Chargers, looking a lot like his old self in the process. He also caught a career high 32 passes for 153 yards. However, his season was cut short after 13 games after he suffered an LCL sprain. Again, a major buzzkill that we’ve come to expect.
Now in Denver, Dobbins is the ultimate wild card. He lands on a depth chart seemingly led by rookie RJ Harvey. At this point, it seems fair to suggest Harvey will start if he can learn the system and produce the way Denver thinks he will. Still, Dobbins is dynamic when healthy and if he looks the part at any point in practice, he’ll see the field.
Dobbins is what he is dynasty leagues at this point – a player with game breaking upside and also the potential of log jamming your IR slots. He’s certainly more than worth a roster spot in dynasty leagues, but a heavy workload is going to be tough to expect. It’s quite likely he’s going to be used as a change of pace player or secondary option in the end. The signing should stop his ADP slide, but it won’t exactly give it rocket fuel to move up, either.
RJ Harvey, RB DEN
Well, this de-escalated quickly. I’ve been quick to advise caution with Harvey post-draft, but that’s simply because I always hesitate in vaulting players up who are seemingly drafted way higher than expected, especially at running back. This move throws a little more cold water on his value in my opinion. I expect him to start for the team moving forward and he could simply hold Dobbins off completely. However, it just seems really unlikely that he’s going to be a full-time running back with a massive workload in his rookie season. His rookie ADP has him right at the end of the first round and the move is likely going to see him slip a few spots. In other words, don’t expect his overall ADP to hit the top 50. Don’t get me wrong – Harvey is a good player and solid rookie pick. The addition of Dobbins just further clouds what this backfield is really going to look like. The price tag on his services simply has a touch more risk on it now than it did before. There’s reason to think, not panic. In my mind, Harvey just may be a player who sees his value start to tick down this year, opening a window to buy at a lower cost for a savvy dynasty manager looking to the future.
Audric Estime, RB DEN
If there’s a real loser in this deal, it’s hard to look at it and say it’s not Estime. He was solid last year with 310 rushing yards but doesn’t catch much of anything more than a cold (five receptions last season) and has now seen Denver add not one, but two running backs who seemingly have more talent than he does. As a fifth round pick, he was always a bit of a long shot to really be a fantasy star, but he also did enough to get our hopes up at times last year. After the Broncos have added both Dobbins and Harvey, it’s really tough to see much value with Estime at all at this point.
Jaleel McLaughlin, RB DEN
You could look at this and put McLaughlin in the “dynasty value loser” category as well. However, that ship has seemed to sail already. Head Coach Sean Payton really hasn’t had much good to say about McLaughlin, who has had his moments now and then. Actions speak louder than words and if the coaching staff really had faith in him, they wouldn’t have been so aggressive in finding replacements. He’s looking like a player headed to the waiver wires in a lot of leagues in the next few days.
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
