Identifying The Dynasty Value Of Rookies

One of my favorite parts of the off-season is identifying player value in the dynasty format. With free agency and the NFL Draft, an individual player’s value can change multiple times throughout the early months of the off-season. This is especially true for rookies, who can see their value vary greatly due to draft capital and landing spots. Add in the wide range of values a player can have in different leagues and with individual managers and it becomes very difficult to pinpoint just what these rookies are actually worth.

At DLF, we have several tools that can help determine a player’s value. Of course, we have our rankings. In the case of this year’s rookie class, you could consult our 1QB rookie rankings, Superflex rookie rankings, along with our top-250 dynasty rankings, also available in 1QB or superflex. If you want to branch out from the DLF team, check out 1QB dynasty startup ADP, superflex startup ADP, or the latest rookie ADP from actual MyFantasyLeague rookie drafts.

Personally, when all of those rankings and ADP sets of data are not enough, I check out one of my favorite DLF tools, the Dynasty Trade Finder. This tool searches thousands of dynasty leagues to curate hundreds of thousands of real, recent dynasty trades. Simply by searching for a player and choosing the format settings, you can find the latest dynasty trades involving any player.

With that in mind, I wanted to hone in on the value of some of the more volatile rookie values. These are players who have gained value since the NFL Draft, but dynasty managers can’t agree on just how far up the boards they should be rising. Let’s use some recent trades, along with our values from the DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer to try to decide.

Travis Hunter, WR/CB JAX

It has been clear for months now that Hunter, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, would be an early selection in this year’s NFL Draft. Despite that confidence, dynasty managers have been uncertain about his value. In fact, based on our March 1QB Rookie ADP, Hunter was not even a top-ten pick. Following the Jaguars’ trade up to select Hunter, and head coach Liam Coen’s declaration that his first focus would be on offense, Hunter’s value has skyrocketed. There are still unbelievers though.

Recent Trade History (Hunter)

Side A	Total Value	Side B	Total Value
Hunter	301.8	Brock Bowers	827.7
Hunter	301.8	Luther Burden, 2026 1st	540.5
Hunter	349.1	Jordan Love	553.5
Hunter	301.8	Rome Odunze, 2026 1st	719.6
Hunter	349.1	Joe Mixon, Sam Darnold	236.4

 

Four of these five trades were considered massive overpays to acquire Hunter, including a one-for-one Brock Bowers deal that values Hunter as a near-first-round dynasty startup pick. This tells me that Hunter’s current startup ADP of 22 overall and WR15 is actually on the low end of the value spectrum for Hunter. Hunter is certainly hard to acquire via trade this off-season, and I expect his ADP and subsequently his overall value to continue to climb.

RJ Harvey, RB DEN

As the NFL Draft drew nearer, more and more analysts and dynasty players alike were pegging Harvey as THE running back sleeper in this stacked class. That proved to be more than correct as the Broncos tabbed him as the fifth back off the board late in the second round. This raised eyebrows as he not only was selected before the more-lauded Kaleb Johnson but also landed in one of the ideal spots for a rookie back. While this combination of landing spot and draft capital has quickly boosted Harvey’s value, there are still concerns that he is being over-drafted.

Recent Trade History (Harvey)

Side A	Total Value	Side B	Total Value
Harvey	329.3	2026 1st, 2026 3rd	153
Harvey	329.3	Kenneth Walker	328.6
Harvey, 2026 5th	333.4	Aaron Jones, Darnell Mooney, 2026 4th	156.6
Harvey, 2026 1st	623	Christian McCaffrey	383.3
Harvey, 2026 5th	333.4	Tucker Kraft, Luke Musgrave	126.2

 

All five examples of recent trades involving Harvey show that his managers are aggressively moving him, and taking a loss to do so. While the Kenneth Walker deal was essentially equal, the others sold low on Harvey compared to our value for him, sometimes taking a major hit. Taking Aaron Jones as the key piece to a deal or adding a future first-rounder along with Harvey for veteran Christian McCaffrey are especially poor deals, based on our Trade Analyzer values. If this trend continues, I could see Harvey’s rookie ADP of 1.07 falling a bit as later rookie drafts kick off this summer.

Bhayshul Tuten, RB JAX

If Harvey wasn’t deep enough for your “sleeper” tastes, you probably liked Tuten, who became one of the first picks on Day Three, selected by Coen and the new Jaguars decision-makers. Although the Jags’ backfield looks crowded with Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby, only one of the trio was hand-picked by the offensive-focused Coen. That’s been enough for dynasty managers to push Tuten up the boards.

Recent Trade History (Tuten)

Side A	Total Value	Side B	Total Value
Tuten	99.2	2026 2nd, 2027 2nd	153
Tuten	99.2	Isaiah Likely	83.3
Tuten	99.2	2026 2nd	93.5
Tuten, Devin Neal	54.3	Sam Darnold	123
Tuten, 2.10 rookie	233.5	2026 1st	293.8

 

As we should expect with these prospects that have become difficult to evaluate, Tuten’s trade value varies widely from deal to deal, league to league. The trade that involved flipping a pair of future second-rounders for him looks way off based on our value, but I actually don’t mind it. Using two Day Three rookie backs to acquire a starting quarterback in a superflex looks like a massive win, but that’s one that could turn quickly. Essentially, even the overpays to acquire Tuten don’t look that costly to me. I think his ADP of 19 overall in 1QB rookie drafts is about the cheapest he’ll be this off-season.

Luther Burden, WR CHI

There were times when Burden appeared to be the favorite to be the top wide receiver selected, and several analysts ranked him as the pre-Draft WR1 among the rookie class. Ultimately, he fell to the second round as the sixth wideout drafted. Being added to the crowded Bears depth chart that includes DJ Moore and Rome Odunze was initially viewed as a major negative. Recent discussion related to how Burden might be deployed in the creative Ben Johnson offense has helped reinvigorate Burden’s dynasty value and ADP..

Recent Trade History (Burden)

Side A	Total Value	Side B	Total Value
Burden	246.7	Brian Robinson, 2026 2nd, 2026 2nd	297.8
Burden	246.7	George Pickens	219.4
Burden	246.7	Chuba Hubbard	193.4
Burden	246.7	Travis Etienne, Courtland Sutton	270.9
Burden	246.7	Tucker Kraft	118.4

 

Surprisingly, nearly all of these recent Burden trades showed dynasty managers selling low on the Bears’ rookie, taking a low-end TE1 in Tucker Kraft, along with a pair of players who have lost value this off-season, George Pickens and Chuba Hubbard, each in one-for-one deals. Even the “wins” aren’t very exciting with low-upside players like Brian Robinson, Etienne, and Courtland Sutton on the other side of the trade. Hard pass.

Jaxson Dart, QB NYG

The draft stock of former Ole Miss quarterback Dart steadily rose as the NFL Draft neared, and he was ultimately selected by the Giants late in Round One, following a trade up. The Giants are not a bad landing spot with a head coach who has done wonders with multiple quarterbacks and one of the top young receivers in the league- Malik Nabers. The presence of veterans Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston has slowed the Dart hype, but there is still plenty of cause for hope and hype.

Recent Trade History (Dart)

Side A	Total Value	Side B	Total Value
Dart	118.4	George Pickens	195
Dart, 2026 3rd	154.3	RJ Harvey	210.3
Dart	118.4	Kyren Williams	349.9
Dart, Ashton Jeanty	799.5	Drake Maye	625.1
Dart, David Montgomery, Cedric Tillman	247.8	Omarion Hampton	468.1

 

Each of these trades comes from superflex leagues and most show that Dart actually has more value than we are giving him credit for, given his Trade Analyzer values. Dart is the QB2 and 1.09 pick in our superflex rookie ADP and is being valued like the future starter he is, based on the above trades.