Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag
Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag, the preeminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land.
“You always adapt to your personnel.” – Chip Kelly (Raiders Offensive Coordinator)
Last season, rookie tight end Brock Bowers finished as the overall PPR TE1 on the back of an electric 112-1,194-5 line. Thus far in the Las Vegas off-season, the team has upgraded the coaching staff, traded for a proper quarterback in Geno Smith, and did little in the way to add competition to Bowers’ target share. The wins are stacking up for the rising sophomore, which subsequently makes me wonder – why is he on the outside looking in when it comes to dynasty’s top assets?
Yes, he’s the dynasty TE1 and 11th player selected overall in startup drafts. That’s not peanuts. But in their 2024 rookie campaigns, Bowers only scored 8.9 fewer PPR points than Malik Nabers, and 17.3 points fewer than Brian Thomas. Despite this the former is routinely going as early as the third player picked overall, while the latter only fell out of the top 10 in a single mock draft.
It’s imperative to remember that in a 1QB league, a stud tight end offers what is perhaps the biggest positional advantage. And while we can’t predict the future, another step in the right direction could push Bowers into elite 300+ PPR point seasons, turning him into a Travis Kelce-esque weekly winner. If Kelly makes good on his words, Bowers is going to be the offensive focal point for the Raiders’ passing game – and if and when this happens, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bowers turn into a top-three-to-five dynasty option.
As a reminder, there are multiple ways to pose your burning questions! I’ll be soliciting weekly feedback via X/Twitter (look for a new pinned tweet each Monday), and you can also reach out using our Discord channel, or the old-fashioned way (via our online webform).
Let’s get to it!
From Discord…
A Shot of Jameson?
Which side do you prefer for an RB-poor team in a 14-team PPR league – Jameson Williams, Quinshon Judkins and a 2026 second-round pick, or Marvin Harrison Jr and Joe Mixon?
At first glance this seems about right to me. Ultimately we are looking at a deal which represents a collection of imperfect and unproven assets. As such, beauty is in the eye of the beholder as it relates to every entry in the anticipated trade, which has the potential to mitigate the difference in total value of 76.2, and even swing it in the opposite direction pending the explicit subjectivity of the participating trade partners. Given this, it seems reasonable to go through each proposed piece.
Starting with Harrison, it’s unsurprising to me that he’s easily the highest-valued individual asset. And while it’s true that he’s actually lost value since entering the league as the fourth overall draft pick in 2023, he didn’t exactly fall flat in year one. A 62-885-8 line is hardly the output of fantasy heavyweights, but Harrison notably led the Cardinals in touchdowns, yards per catch and big plays, and he was second in targets, receptions and yards.
Unfortunately, the passing game simply wasn’t prolific, finishing in the back half of the league in attempts, yards, and touchdowns – given the fact the offense was also supporting star tight end Trey McBride, the slimmer pickings were understandable. But his efficiency could still be projectable moving forward. Using my AIR metric evaluation (fraction of team’s PPR receiving points/fraction of team’s targets), Harrison checked in with a fine value of 1.10 (an average value would be 1.00). Here again this wasn’t an elite output, but it asserts that with additional volume Harrison could yield even stronger dividends.
Still, I can appreciate some lingering disappointment given the expectations, and understand why Harrison’s rookie efforts might be viewed as bust-adjacent. But if you weren’t a big fan of his 198.5 PPR points, you know who else you probably didn’t like? Jameson Williams.
Okay Eric, haha, good one. Williams entered the league injured and we knew he wasn’t going to be a massive contributor right out of the gates.
Touche, but Williams still only caught a single measly target in six games. However, I’ll concede the point. But do you know what still wasn’t demonstrably better? A sophomore season where he only managed a 24-354-2 line across 12 games, and where he was suspended for four contests due to a violation of the league’s gambling policy. In fact it took Williams until his third season in 2024 to turn into a fantasy contributor, one where he still only finished 13.7 PPR points ahead of the rookie Harrison despite playing on one of the NFL’s best offenses.
To be clear, I actually like Williams as a player and think he represents a solid value at cost. But the facts remain he’s far from proven, and to date in the league he only has six more total touchdowns than games suspended. This is not a bulletproof asset.
At the risk of intruding upon John DiBari’s PhD (Player Hatin’ Degree), I’ll next turn my negative eye to the incoming rookie Judkins.
Metrics courtesy of MockDraftable.
Looking at this from an agnostic perspective, these are great numbers for a 221-pound ball carrier. The problem, however, is this explosion didn’t show up in Judkins’ game film or collegiate outputs. No one will deny he is a bruiser who can make defenders miss in a phone booth as well as run them over, but there’s a reason only 6.7% of his collegiate rushing attempts went for 20+ yards. Just last year, Ohio State teammate TreVeyon Henderson had a 6% higher explosive play rate than Judkins, as well as an additional 1.6 YPC. But in looking at the numbers you might not have guessed it, as he was only 0.05 seconds faster in the 40-yard dash and had a shorter broad jump.
This isn’t to say Judkins won’t be successful, but NFL athletes play the game at a higher and faster level – as such a lack of explosiveness may be even more pronounced. Further, Judkins is unlikely to supplement his rushing numbers with passing game prowess, as he only compiled 59 receptions in 42 career collegiate contests. A best-case scenario may actually see Judkins resemble his Cleveland predecessor, Nick Chubb.
An elite runner (“the best pure running back in the league,” as many have opined), Chubb has a career average of 5.3 YPC if excepting 2024’s return from a devastating 2023 knee injury. Despite this, he’s never been able to function as a true game-changer in a PPR setting, for the simple reason that he’s only had one season eclipsing 30 receptions. Owners will undoubtedly gladly take five straight finishes as the PPR RB16 or better, but were nevertheless left wanting for truly exceptional seasonal output.
In an ideal world, the Browns will hitch their wagon to Judkins as the engine of the offense. That’s nice in theory, but it conveniently omits the fact that the team will be helmed by one of Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, Dillon Gabriel or Shedeur Sanders. This is not an offense that will keep up with Joe Burrow or Lamar Jackson, nor is it one that will move the ball with ease against the Steel Curtain. Despite his talent, Judkins may simply be phased out of the game play if the Browns play similar ball in 2025 as they did in concluding the 2024 season with a horrible 3-14 record.
Yes, he was an early second-round pick, and this is meaningful at the running back position. And no, the competition comprising the remainder of the depth chart is hardly fierce. But here too there exist natural counterarguments – for starters, the decisions of the brain trust that paid a King’s ransom for quarterback Deshaun Watson mean quite little to me, particularly as they coupled it with a league-worst contract. And though Judkins’ positional contemporaries may lack his skill, it means very little if the position will require a pass-catching role late in games, something that veteran Jerome Ford can easily fulfill.
On the other hand sits Joe Mixon, a player who is clearly on the back nine of his career, but one who also still doesn’t seem to get the respect he deserves as the RB22 per the current ADP. At 28 years old and with nearly 2,000 NFL touches, I can certainly appreciate the apprehension. But if Mixon does indeed fall off in the near future, it won’t be in continuation of what he was able to accomplish in 2024.
Advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
As shown above, Mixon’s yards after contact per rushing attempt (YAC/Att) were his best since the 2021 season, and he broke tackles with the second-highest frequency of his career (Att/Br). This was further replicated across his 36 receptions, where he did one better, putting forth the best yards after contact per reception (YAC/R) and broken tackle frequency (Rec/Br) of his seven seasons in the league.
No, Mixon isn’t going to be a fit for every roster. But of all the players in the proposed trade, he may very well have the best 2025 season. An improving Texans roster figures to be competitive week in and week out, as shown by their back-to-back 10-7 records and Wild Card round playoff victories. This should mean Mixon won’t be game-planned out of any contest, and at the end of the day, he’s at least a league-average pass-catching running back. His future in the league won’t be long, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be bright.
If both Harrison and Mixon put up good numbers next season, it stands to reason the 2026 second-round pick won’t be looking too hot. Given the league size (14 teams) and setting (1QB, no TE-premium scoring), a mid-round pick around #20 overall isn’t exactly making me want to dance a jig. This isn’t to say it lacks value, but as always draft picks outside the first round just carry too much potential downside for me to want to use them as pieces to bridge the gap in a trade.
Given the totality of the above, I will have to agree with the DLF Trade Analyzer’s output. In a vacuum, I actually like each piece in the deal – but to me, Harrison is the likeliest player to achieve future stardom, and Mixon seems like the surest immediate bet even if the longevity is lacking. Judkins and Williams may very well have solid NFL and fantasy careers, but I don’t personally view them as league-winning assets. Further, the pick represents empty-calorie value to me. Rational minds are free to differ, but to pull the trigger, I’d need something a bit more enticing and with a little bit more certainty to it, similar to the below.
Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag, the preeminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land.
“You always adapt to your personnel.” – Chip Kelly (Raiders Offensive Coordinator)
Last season, rookie tight end Brock Bowers finished as the overall PPR TE1 on the back of an electric 112-1,194-5 line. Thus far in the Las Vegas off-season, the team has upgraded the coaching staff, traded for a proper quarterback in Geno Smith, and did little in the way to add competition to Bowers’ target share. The wins are stacking up for the rising sophomore, which subsequently makes me wonder – why is he on the outside looking in when it comes to dynasty’s top assets?
Yes, he’s the dynasty TE1 and 11th player selected overall in startup drafts. That’s not peanuts. But in their 2024 rookie campaigns, Bowers only scored 8.9 fewer PPR points than Malik Nabers, and 17.3 points fewer than Brian Thomas. Despite this the former is routinely going as early as the third player picked overall, while the latter only fell out of the top 10 in a single mock draft.
It’s imperative to remember that in a 1QB league, a stud tight end offers what is perhaps the biggest positional advantage. And while we can’t predict the future, another step in the right direction could push Bowers into elite 300+ PPR point seasons, turning him into a Travis Kelce-esque weekly winner. If Kelly makes good on his words, Bowers is going to be the offensive focal point for the Raiders’ passing game – and if and when this happens, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bowers turn into a top-three-to-five dynasty option.
As a reminder, there are multiple ways to pose your burning questions! I’ll be soliciting weekly feedback via X/Twitter (look for a new pinned tweet each Monday), and you can also reach out using our Discord channel, or the old-fashioned way (via our online webform).
Let’s get to it!
From Discord…
A Shot of Jameson?
Which side do you prefer for an RB-poor team in a 14-team PPR league – Jameson Williams, Quinshon Judkins and a 2026 second-round pick, or Marvin Harrison Jr and Joe Mixon?
At first glance this seems about right to me. Ultimately we are looking at a deal which represents a collection of imperfect and unproven assets. As such, beauty is in the eye of the beholder as it relates to every entry in the anticipated trade, which has the potential to mitigate the difference in total value of 76.2, and even swing it in the opposite direction pending the explicit subjectivity of the participating trade partners. Given this, it seems reasonable to go through each proposed piece.
Starting with Harrison, it’s unsurprising to me that he’s easily the highest-valued individual asset. And while it’s true that he’s actually lost value since entering the league as the fourth overall draft pick in 2023, he didn’t exactly fall flat in year one. A 62-885-8 line is hardly the output of fantasy heavyweights, but Harrison notably led the Cardinals in touchdowns, yards per catch and big plays, and he was second in targets, receptions and yards.
Unfortunately, the passing game simply wasn’t prolific, finishing in the back half of the league in attempts, yards, and touchdowns – given the fact the offense was also supporting star tight end Trey McBride, the slimmer pickings were understandable. But his efficiency could still be projectable moving forward. Using my AIR metric evaluation (fraction of team’s PPR receiving points/fraction of team’s targets), Harrison checked in with a fine value of 1.10 (an average value would be 1.00). Here again this wasn’t an elite output, but it asserts that with additional volume Harrison could yield even stronger dividends.
Still, I can appreciate some lingering disappointment given the expectations, and understand why Harrison’s rookie efforts might be viewed as bust-adjacent. But if you weren’t a big fan of his 198.5 PPR points, you know who else you probably didn’t like? Jameson Williams.
Okay Eric, haha, good one. Williams entered the league injured and we knew he wasn’t going to be a massive contributor right out of the gates.
Touche, but Williams still only caught a single measly target in six games. However, I’ll concede the point. But do you know what still wasn’t demonstrably better? A sophomore season where he only managed a 24-354-2 line across 12 games, and where he was suspended for four contests due to a violation of the league’s gambling policy. In fact it took Williams until his third season in 2024 to turn into a fantasy contributor, one where he still only finished 13.7 PPR points ahead of the rookie Harrison despite playing on one of the NFL’s best offenses.
To be clear, I actually like Williams as a player and think he represents a solid value at cost. But the facts remain he’s far from proven, and to date in the league he only has six more total touchdowns than games suspended. This is not a bulletproof asset.
At the risk of intruding upon John DiBari’s PhD (Player Hatin’ Degree), I’ll next turn my negative eye to the incoming rookie Judkins.
Metrics courtesy of MockDraftable.
Looking at this from an agnostic perspective, these are great numbers for a 221-pound ball carrier. The problem, however, is this explosion didn’t show up in Judkins’ game film or collegiate outputs. No one will deny he is a bruiser who can make defenders miss in a phone booth as well as run them over, but there’s a reason only 6.7% of his collegiate rushing attempts went for 20+ yards. Just last year, Ohio State teammate TreVeyon Henderson had a 6% higher explosive play rate than Judkins, as well as an additional 1.6 YPC. But in looking at the numbers you might not have guessed it, as he was only 0.05 seconds faster in the 40-yard dash and had a shorter broad jump.
This isn’t to say Judkins won’t be successful, but NFL athletes play the game at a higher and faster level – as such a lack of explosiveness may be even more pronounced. Further, Judkins is unlikely to supplement his rushing numbers with passing game prowess, as he only compiled 59 receptions in 42 career collegiate contests. A best-case scenario may actually see Judkins resemble his Cleveland predecessor, Nick Chubb.
An elite runner (“the best pure running back in the league,” as many have opined), Chubb has a career average of 5.3 YPC if excepting 2024’s return from a devastating 2023 knee injury. Despite this, he’s never been able to function as a true game-changer in a PPR setting, for the simple reason that he’s only had one season eclipsing 30 receptions. Owners will undoubtedly gladly take five straight finishes as the PPR RB16 or better, but were nevertheless left wanting for truly exceptional seasonal output.
In an ideal world, the Browns will hitch their wagon to Judkins as the engine of the offense. That’s nice in theory, but it conveniently omits the fact that the team will be helmed by one of Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, Dillon Gabriel or Shedeur Sanders. This is not an offense that will keep up with Joe Burrow or Lamar Jackson, nor is it one that will move the ball with ease against the Steel Curtain. Despite his talent, Judkins may simply be phased out of the game play if the Browns play similar ball in 2025 as they did in concluding the 2024 season with a horrible 3-14 record.
Yes, he was an early second-round pick, and this is meaningful at the running back position. And no, the competition comprising the remainder of the depth chart is hardly fierce. But here too there exist natural counterarguments – for starters, the decisions of the brain trust that paid a King’s ransom for quarterback Deshaun Watson mean quite little to me, particularly as they coupled it with a league-worst contract. And though Judkins’ positional contemporaries may lack his skill, it means very little if the position will require a pass-catching role late in games, something that veteran Jerome Ford can easily fulfill.
On the other hand sits Joe Mixon, a player who is clearly on the back nine of his career, but one who also still doesn’t seem to get the respect he deserves as the RB22 per the current ADP. At 28 years old and with nearly 2,000 NFL touches, I can certainly appreciate the apprehension. But if Mixon does indeed fall off in the near future, it won’t be in continuation of what he was able to accomplish in 2024.
Advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
As shown above, Mixon’s yards after contact per rushing attempt (YAC/Att) were his best since the 2021 season, and he broke tackles with the second-highest frequency of his career (Att/Br). This was further replicated across his 36 receptions, where he did one better, putting forth the best yards after contact per reception (YAC/R) and broken tackle frequency (Rec/Br) of his seven seasons in the league.
No, Mixon isn’t going to be a fit for every roster. But of all the players in the proposed trade, he may very well have the best 2025 season. An improving Texans roster figures to be competitive week in and week out, as shown by their back-to-back 10-7 records and Wild Card round playoff victories. This should mean Mixon won’t be game-planned out of any contest, and at the end of the day, he’s at least a league-average pass-catching running back. His future in the league won’t be long, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be bright.
If both Harrison and Mixon put up good numbers next season, it stands to reason the 2026 second-round pick won’t be looking too hot. Given the league size (14 teams) and setting (1QB, no TE-premium scoring), a mid-round pick around #20 overall isn’t exactly making me want to dance a jig. This isn’t to say it lacks value, but as always draft picks outside the first round just carry too much potential downside for me to want to use them as pieces to bridge the gap in a trade.
Given the totality of the above, I will have to agree with the DLF Trade Analyzer’s output. In a vacuum, I actually like each piece in the deal – but to me, Harrison is the likeliest player to achieve future stardom, and Mixon seems like the surest immediate bet even if the longevity is lacking. Judkins and Williams may very well have solid NFL and fantasy careers, but I don’t personally view them as league-winning assets. Further, the pick represents empty-calorie value to me. Rational minds are free to differ, but to pull the trigger, I’d need something a bit more enticing and with a little bit more certainty to it, similar to the below.
