2025 Dynasty Riser, Faller and Longshot Predictions: Atlanta Falcons

Summer is the best time to evaluate dynasty assets and their place in the dynasty market. In this series, we will bring you a riser, faller, and longshot from each NFL team. We’ll cover dynasty values, potential trades, and overall team outlooks.

Let’s jump into the Atlanta Falcons!

Riser: Darnell Mooney, WR

The Falcons were in dire need of receiving help, but unfortunately for their offensive staff and players, they had an even bigger need on defense. Not even in a specific area – just the entirety of their defense. They traded back into the first with the Rams to select two edge rushers, shoring up their pass rush but neglecting the offensive side of the ball. This means that they’ll head into 2025 with the same receiving core they had in 2024, headlined by Drake London, but with clear competition for the second receiving option.

Depth Chart courtesy of 4for4.com.

Thing is, in 2024, it wasn’t an open competition for the second receiving option. Darnell Mooney saw a 23% target share, eclipsing 100 targets and seeing 30 more than tight end Kyle Pitts, who many thought would be the second receiver on this team. We’ll come back to Pitts later.

Mooney finished as the WR31 in 2024, although it was a boom bust season for him. He finished with 106 targets for 996 yards and five touchdowns, the highest marks since his breakout sophomore campaign in Chicago.

Current Market Value

Despite this, Mooney is consistently undervalued. Per current DLF ADP, he is being drafted as the WR61 in startups, going at the back of the twelfth round in 1QB drafts.

Mooney enters the 2025 season as the clear second option on an empty depth chart with an ascending young quarterback who we know can chuck it deep and support multiple top options – just look at his time in college, where he was passing to Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan and Jalynn Polk, all of whom went in the first three rounds of the 2024 draft.

I can’t stop drafting or trading for Darnell Mooney. When you look at the options around him, he has both a higher ceiling and a higher floor than all of them. Mooney has shown that he can be a functional WR2 in the NFL and has two seasons of 990+ yards. Why he’s going this low, I can’t explain.

Future Outlook

Michael Penix is essentially still a rookie quarterback. That means that we can’t be 100% confident in how he’ll perform in the NFL, even if he showed flashes in his brief performances at the end of last season. However, he showed his ability to throw the ball deep in college and support multiple options, and the Falcons will need someone to produce on the other side of Drake London. London was targeted heavily in Penix’s starts, but the matchup with Mooney’s ability to win deep should provide a high ceiling option available for next to nothing in dynasty leagues. Mooney saw five games in 2024 with a yards per touch of over 10, and with some positive touchdown regression and an ascending offense, there’s no reason he can’t challenge to finish as a WR2.

Advanced statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference.

Trade Options/Conclusion

Let’s use the DLF Trade Finder to look at some recent moves made for Mooney.

• Trade 1: Mooney for Jordan Mason feels about right if you think Mason can challenge for the starting role in Minnesota, but I’d take the WR side.
• Trade 2: This is a very deep draft, I’m assuming a startup. Mooney here.
• Trade 3: Again, Mooney side. But Roschon Johnson is an interesting asset if you think he may play the David Montgomery role in Chicago.
• Trade 4: Mooney – easily.
• Trade 5: This is a strange one, but I’d definitely take Mooney over the FAAB.
• Trade 6: I had to Google to even check if Tim Patrick had a team. Mooney side, easily.

Faller: Kyle Pitts, TE

Ah, Kyle Pitts. The dynasty TE1 before he even played a snap in the NFL. The generational prospect. The most valuable non-QB in superflex leagues. Pitts was the TE6 in his first year in the NFL, eclipsing 1,000 yards as a rookie even if he only scored one touchdown (which was at a London game). Since then, he’s finished as the TE33, 13 and 15. Because of the pre-draft value, he’s still a target in the eyes of some dynasty managers, but with just ten weekly finishes as a top ten TE in the past three seasons, it might be time to let the dream die.

Current Market Value

Per current DLF ADP, Pitts is going off the board in startups as the TE12 in the 10th round.

To be honest, this feels insanely high to me. Tight end is a weird position for value – we have an established top two, two exciting rookies coming in around them, then a huge cliff with some older options like George Kittle and Mark Andrews, and a few players we’re hoping to break out, like Tucker Kraft and Isaiah Likely. But when you look at some of the tight ends being drafted rounds after Pitts, they all have a higher floor. Whether it’s Evan Engram, Mason Taylor, Jonnu Smith or Dallas Goedert, I’d much rather be starting most of these players week in, week out. Pitts is actively damaging your dynasty rosters because you feel like you have to start him, but most weeks, he’s not performing.

Future Outlook

Pitts still goes into 2025 as the starting tight end on the Falcons. However, this was the case last year, and he only finished with a 16% target share, seeing 13 fewer targets than Ray-Ray McCloud.

The best possible outcome for Pitts is if he’s traded. There have been rumors about him moving this off-season, with links to the Rams and the Seahawks pre-draft, before both drafted tight ends in the second round. The best possible landing spot would be with a creative play-caller who can maximise Pitts’ athleticism while minimising his weaknesses (playing as a conventional tight end). If he was moved to the Jaguars, Commanders, or even to the Chiefs, I could see a surge in his dynasty value. But without a move, it’s unlikely we’ll see Pitts contribute to your dynasty rosters in 2025.

Trade Options/Conclusion

Let’s use the DLF Trade Finder to look at some recent moves made for Pitts.

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• Trade 1: I really like Tyler Allgeier as a priority backup, but I’m taking the ceiling of Pitts here.
• Trade 2: This is easily Jordan Love – two firsts with Pitts as a throw-in are great value for a potentially elite QB.
• Trade 3: It’s easy to argue that George Kittle is the only fantasy-relevant asset here. That side easily wins for me.
• Trade 4: This is Bryce Young to me. Getting a young QB with upside for James Conner and Pitts feels like a steal.
• Trade 5: I’m smashing Justin Jefferson here. This feels like getting him very cheaply, even with Amon-Ra St. Brown on the other side.

Longshot: Nick Nash, WR

Path to relevance

In 2024, Nick Nash was a Unanimous All-American, won First-Team All-Mountain-West honours, and won the NCAA triple crown in the regular season. He finished with 104 receptions for 1,382 yards and 16 touchdowns, and controversially lost the Biletnikoff Award to Travis Hunter.

He then went undrafted.

The trouble with Nash is he’s 25 after spending his first three years in college as a quarterback, switching to wide receiver in 2022 (you read that right, Nash was in college from 2019 to 2024). However, he’s an explosive contested catcher who plays with incredible competitiveness. Despite going undrafted, he has real potential to make this roster and compete for the WR3 spot. He’s already turning heads in camp and OTAs, although X highlight videos are difficult to judge, and with clear talent and an open depth chart, there’s a world in which he can contribute in 2025.

Case against him

People always look for outliers, but there’s a reason why they are just that.

It’s unlikely that any UDFA will succeed for fantasy football. Making the roster is hard enough; actually becoming a starter is a near-impossible job. Nash went undrafted for a reason and will need to develop his route running to succeed in the NFL. While it’s clear that he has talent, the entire NFL passed on him over and over. It’ll be an uphill battle to succeed.

Verdict

The mix of winning the NCAA triple crown then going undrafted is really strange. Nash has the tools to succeed and become a solid role player, but his age will be an issue in the long term. If he can make the roster, I have faith that he can find a spot as the WR4 on an empty depth chart, but it’ll be a challenge to get there in the first place.