Dynasty Archetypes: Running Back
As a dynasty manager, imagine having the ability to accurately predict the future performance of a dynasty asset, based on the past…
In this four-part series I’ll be exploring Dynasty Archetypes: a method of predicting future player fantasy production, based upon grouping players with similar traits, usage and output. By understanding a player projection or expected journey based upon the results of similar player types, it is easier to calculate the range of outcomes of the asset and facilitate the optimal team build.
In the previous article, I outlined the different archetypes at quarterback, with the focus now shifting to running back - the highest risk/reward position in dynasty. The running back archetypes used in this article are relatively simple, with the key driver focusing on the percentage of fantasy points per game achieved through passing production - passing fantasy points per game (PFPPG), which consists of receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. The parameters for the running back archetypes are: 0-20% PFPPG for ‘runner’, 20-40% ‘balanced’ and 40%+ for the ‘receiver’ running back archetype.
Derrick Henry is a typical ‘runner’ archetype, with less than 20% of his fantasy production via PFPPG (Credit: DLF Game Log App)
Running Back Archetypes
The runner archetype consists of players who offer limited receiving upside, with their fantasy output based on rushing yards and rushing touchdowns - making them high-risk due to a lower weekly floor and more susceptible to game script affecting fantasy production (teams that fall behind multiple scores tend to abandon the running game). The balanced archetype consists of players who are equally adept as a passer and runner, with an overall consistent profile. The receiver running back archetype consists of players who add significant value through their receiving game output, increasing their floor and ceiling in fantasy - the most appealing archetype, considering the majority of leagues are based upon points per reception (PPR), where a 10-yard reception equates to a 20-yard rush. The detailed breakdown of each running back archetype can be found in the original article created last year.
