2025 Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update: Jaylin Noel

The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty managers, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In our Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profiles and where they fit. The basis of the rookie profile involves the usage of STORM analysis, focusing on five key components: Situation, Talent, Opportunity, Risk, and Market.

Situation

Name: Jaylin Noel

Position: Wide Receiver

Pro Team: Houston Texans

College Team: Iowa State

Draft Status: Round three, pick 79

Noel leaves Iowa State second all-time in career catches (245), third in receiving yards (2,855), and fourth in receiving touchdowns (18) in team history. A four-star recruit initially, he had the kind of developmental track that you would look for in a wide receiver – steadily growing each year, until eventually putting up his first 1,000-yard season in 2024 as a senior. However, that doesn’t mean it took him a long time to break out – Noel finished second in receiving on the team in his sophomore season, which was ultimately a feature of his time in college.

When WR1 Xavier Hutchinson went pro after the 2022 season, Jayden Higgins transferred to Iowa State. That meant Noel would still be second fiddle, but he continued to develop and demand targets, even without being the firm number one receiver in the offense.

It was exciting to see Noel’s developmental track, combined with an impressive combine and some explosive film, and project what he could look like out of the shadow of Jayden Higgins and in an NFL offense. Unfortunately for him – and for people like me who loved him pre-draft – that didn’t quite end up being the case. Noel landing with the Texans would have been an incredibly exciting landing spot, pairing him with CJ Stroud and allowing him to be the WR2 complement to Nico Collins, but he was drafted right after his former teammate Higgins.

Talent

NFL Combine Results – Credit: NFL.com.

Noel’s measurables courtesy of Mockdraftable.

Noel’s film was incredibly impressive. He showed a dynamic athlete with great hands and the speed to break away from would-be tacklers. He’s a smaller receiver, but with a dense frame to handle contact. Although his profile seems like a pure slot receiver, Noel is able to line up anywhere across the formation and win at all three levels of the field.

Noel’s combine was mixed. He absolutely crushed the drills, dominating at the bench press with TWENTY-THREE reps, which is unbelievable at his size. His 40-yard dash was more than good enough and he had impressive jumps, showcasing his explosiveness. The issue for Noel was always going to be the 15th percentile height and 32nd percentile weight. This would wipe him off some teams’ boards in the first two rounds regardless of how he performed.

Opportunity

Courtesy of 4for4.

The Iowa State wide receivers were two of the most confusing prospects in the 2025 NFL draft. Higgins and Noel both had breakout senior seasons, finishing with over 1,000 yards each, but on a Cyclones team that never achieved anything. They were constantly being brought up in the same breath, debating over which would be drafted higher and who would be more productive when they got to the NFL.

That debate didn’t end with the draft. Higgins and Noel both found themselves drafted to the Houston Texans, who decided to completely revamp their receiving core with Stefon Diggs leaving as a free agent and Tank Dell being out indefinitely with major injuries.

Noel should be the starting slot in the offense, dependent on Christian Kirk’s health, but there’s risk that he starts life as the WR4 on this team.

Risk

Noel’s collegiate stats courtesy of Sports Reference.

Noel was my guy pre-draft, but the situation he’s landed himself in isn’t ideal. Noel will have to beat out Higgins for targets – something he wasn’t able to successfully do in college. The Texans have an exciting quarterback, but an established number one target, so for Noel to be a consistent fantasy producer, he’ll likely have to win the WR2 job. If he can’t, he’ll likely never be more than a boom-bust flex option.

Market

Dynasty Value – Credit: DLF May 2025 Superflex Rookie Dynasty ADP.

At the time of asking, Noel is going off the board as the WR9 and at the back of the second round. This makes him quite a difficult click, as you’re taking him above a receiver like Kyle Williams who should be the WR2 on an exciting offense from day one, as well as above some exciting quarterbacks and tight ends. When he slips towards the third round, Noel is an interesting upside case, but his situation makes it hard to click draft.

Courtesy of May 2025 Superflex Dynasty ADP.

In startup dynasty superflex drafts, Noel is going as the WR59 and the 149th overall player. This is where I find him a much easier option to draft. There’s definitely upside in his profile, and taking a risk on that upside in the 12th round of a startup feels much nicer than doing it in the second round of a rookie draft.

Courtesy of DLF’s trade analyzer.

The DLF trade analyzer has Noel in an interesting spot, where he’s either worth an upside risk as a flier in rookie drafts, or available to be traded for a veteran who provides less ceiling, but may be able to help your team in 2025. Looking at the players above, Stefon Diggs and Jakobi Meyers are essentially guaranteed to be better in 2025, but it is a risk in the long term.

Noel’s talent will have to be enough to win out in a crowded receiver room. It’ll be tough for him to achieve fantasy stardom, but thankfully for him, Noel does have the talent to do it.