Dynasty Decision: Jaylen Waddle
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset becomes worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold, expecting that decline, only to continue defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
Jaylen Waddle, WR MIA
Waddle is poised for a make-or-break season in dynasty circles. Some view him as a dynamic YAC machine with elite separation skills, tied to one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses. Others see a secondary option to Tyreek Hill, whose week-to-week fantasy volatility makes him hard to trust as a WR1. As the Dolphins enter a make-or-break year, Waddle’s real-life and fantasy trajectory will be critical to watch. If Miami makes the leap or Hill begins to slow down, Waddle could finally command the lead target share many fantasy managers have been waiting for.
Previous Performance
Waddle burst onto the scene in 2021 as a rookie, setting a then-NFL record with 104 receptions, primarily fueled by short-area targets and a heavy dose of manufactured touches. He finished as the WR13 in PPR formats, providing a reliable WR2 value and showing flashes of big-play potential.
In 2022, the Dolphins’ offense shifted with the arrivals of Tyreek Hill and Mike McDaniel. Waddle’s raw volume dipped, but his efficiency exploded. He led the NFL in yards per reception (18.1) and posted six WR1 weeks. While his boom-or-bust profile was frustrating for some fantasy managers, his WR8 overall finish underscored his elite upside.
2023 was a step back statistically. Waddle battled injuries, missing three games and playing through others while less than 100%. He finished with 72 receptions for 1,014 yards and just four touchdowns, career lows in all three categories. The raw volume was still there, as he averaged 7.4 targets per game, up from the 6.8 he saw in 2022. However, with the offence not reaching 2022 levels, his efficiency dropped significantly.
In 2024, Waddle returned to full health but produced his worst statistical season by far. He saw a career-low 5.5 targets per game and only found the endzone twice. The frustrating thing for fantasy managers is that the spike weeks didn’t appear. Waddle found double-digit points only four times. That is backbreaking for a player you expected to produce like a WR2/3.
Situation and Usage
Waddle remains one of the most dangerous players in the league with the ball in his hands. His 4.37 speed and elite route-running make him a nightmare for defenders, especially when schemed into space. McDaniel’s motion-heavy system is tailor-made to leverage Waddle’s burst and agility.
That said, Waddle’s usage has always been a bit of a paradox. He’s capable of commanding high volume, as we saw in his rookie year, but the Dolphins rarely use him consistently in that role. Waddle has consistently played second fiddle to Hill, and that alone will bring more variance to his fantasy production on a week-to-week basis.
The 2025 season feels like a crucial season for not only Waddle but also Tua Tagovailoa, Mike McDaniel, and the entire Miami Dolphins. They have leveraged the future with several aggressive trades and contracts, and this season is poised to be their last with this current setup unless they make a deep post-season run.
If the Dolphins can return to their 2022 and 2023 form, Waddle should be in one of the better WR2 situations across the league. However, if the Dolphins don’t innovate and trot out the same offence that it appears the league is catching up to, they may struggle, and that would be a bad thing for Waddle’s fantasy production.
Contract
In May 2024, Waddle made an interesting decision when signing his contract. He signed as soon as possible, but only signed a three-year contract. The idea is that Waddle can hit free agency or command an extension while still in his prime. As mentioned, the Dolphins have been aggressive with their contracts and have pushed significant money into the future, so Waddle’s cap hits in 2025 and 2026 are minuscule given his talents. Over the next two seasons, he will count $8m and $11.6m, respectively. However, in 2027, that cap hit skyrockets to $33.8m.
This feels like a natural decision point. The Dolphins will likely either extend Waddle to reduce the 2027 cap hit or view that as a jumping-off point where they could pivot away from the talented wide receiver in a trade. This gives Waddle some significant security around the next two seasons. However, the question marks around the situation and the quarterback’s long-term security remain.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the WR25 in May ADP and the 73rd overall player. The trade analyzer has him worth the 1.06 in the 2025 draft or a random 2026 first-round pick and third-round pick in a superflex league. Recent trades are below:
Conclusion
In dynasty, two central elements go into a player’s value: production and future resale value. Neither is an exact science, which is part of the beauty of playing in dynasty leagues. However, sometimes the community as a whole becomes too short-sighted when viewing things through a production lens. Yes, Waddle had a bad 2024 season, but he still has the potential to produce elite numbers even if he’s sharing targets with Tyreek Hill. He is only 26 years old and locked up contractually for at least three more years. He is going to hold resale value moving forward. So the fact that he is currently WR25 and can be bought for a single mid-first-round pick feels egregious and incredibly light.
Waddle fits in with anyone’s roster, whether contending, rebuilding, or retooling, because he has that level of high-end production potential, is still in his prime, has future resale value, and is significantly undervalued currently.
I’ve aggressively targeted Waddle all off-season and will continue to do so. If the Dolphins have a great season, he will likely bounce back and produce. If the Dolphins have a bad season and fall apart, Tyreek Hill will likely be moved, freeing up a huge amount of target volume for Waddle to step into. At this cost, there is very little downside and incredible upside.
- Dynasty Decision: DK Metcalf - June 6, 2025
- Dynasty Decision: Breece Hall - May 30, 2025
- Dynasty Decision: Jaylen Waddle - May 23, 2025
