Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Garrett Wilson vs DK Metcalf
Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag, the preeminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land.
“There is no knowledge that is not power.” -Ralph Waldo Emerson
The NFL released their schedule last week, meaning fantasy owners can begin to map out potential weeks of strength and weakness. And while dynasty enthusiasts are thinking on more than just a weekly level, it’s imperative to remember that wins and losses are what dictate our 2025 fates. As such be sure to identify when your players might be facing off against both favorable and unfavorable opponents, and consider contingencies both for these weeks as well as when you have folks on byes. Of course, we still don’t know what we don’t know – we’re projecting the coming year based on 2024 results as well as the 2025 off-season and NFL Draft, but we still don’t know how teams are going to gel together, or function under new coaching staffs. Still, it’s better to perform any type of thought exercise than to ignore it – no one wins by doing nothing.
As a reminder, there are multiple ways to pose your burning questions! I’ll be soliciting weekly feedback via X/Twitter (look for a new pinned tweet each Monday), and you can also reach out using our Discord channel, or the old-fashioned way (via our online webform).
Let’s get to it!
From Discord…
Getting Sick-i of the Disrespect
Which side do you prefer in a 12-team, PPR, TE-premium superflex league – Mike Gesicki and Noah Fant, or a 2026 third-round pick?
As can be gleaned from the above, we’re not talking about top-tier trade pieces. But despite the lesser value, it doesn’t mean we can’t still mine for dynasty gold.
Last season Gesicki was just outside the TE1 tier, finishing as the PPR TE13. This was roughly in line with his target share, as he was tied for the 12th most opportunities at the position. However, he did so despite being tied for 24th most receiving scores at the position. Instead, his points were buoyed by his 65 receptions, which was tied for eighth best at the position, turning him into a likely TE1 in the TE-premium setting.
Given this, Gesicki offers projectability moving forward. Decidedly behind both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins in the pecking order, Gesicki still appears as the team’s likely third target in the passing game on an offense that slung the rock around the yard more than anyone except the division rival Browns. In 2025 he’ll hopefully be able to build on the year of experience with quarterback Joe Burrow now in hand, which should yield improved numbers. Further, Gesicki’s prior success rate of getting into the paint during the course of the rest of his career stood at one score per every 20.8 targets, a rate that doubled last season. If he reverts to his prior norm, there’s significant upside.
Perhaps this is why the Bengals clearly made it a priority to retain his services. This off-season he signed a three-year contract with the team worth up to $25.5 million, though there’s clearly some financial wizardry in play here as only $6.5 million was guaranteed. Still, the fact is they brought him back, where he’ll be the team’s TE1 by a country mile, particularly with Erick All missing the whole year.
Depth chart courtesy of 4for4.
As for Fant, he’s not a player on whom I’m particularly bullish. Still, there may be some 2025 signal amongst a career of noise.
Long a tease since entering the league as a first-round pick, Fant at least has the potential for opportunity in due to the release of Tyler Lockett and trade of DK Metcalf to the Steelers. With quarterback now settled following the trade of Geno Smith and signing of Sam Darnold, combined with the team doing shockingly little in the 2025 NFL Draft, Fant enters the new season as the team’s third target in the passing game behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the recently oft-injured and perhaps declining Cooper Kupp. Elijah Arroyo may very well represent the team’s future at the position, but the athletically gifted second-rounder only had 11 total receptions going into his senior year at Miami. So while toolsy, he has “Project” tattooed in big red letters across his forehead.
If nothing else, Fant has at least done slightly better without Geno Smith than with him, which coupled with the rest of the above paragraph, could perhaps serve as a decent stepping stone for a late-career breakout.
As to the other side of the deal, I acknowledge that the superflex and TE-premium league paradigm makes the rookie pick a bit more compelling. But it’s still at best going to be the 25th overall pick, where any quality quarterbacks and tight ends will be long gone. If you have a strong history of identifying diamonds in the rough then I understand the appeal, but to me Gesicki is the bird in the hand, and a player who can help you win now. Fant is likely an afterthought, but there’s at least a Lloyd Christmas type of chance. As such I’ll roll with the veterans here.
Have you Met(calf) my (Wil)son?
Which side do you prefer for a contending squad in a 10-team, PPR league – Garrett Wilson and a 2027 second-round pick, or pick 1.07 and DK Metcalf?
This seems about right. While he’s not quite approaching “unimpeachable asset” status, Wilson is a player who has soldiered through unfathomably poor quarterback play to post three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons to open his fledgling career. 2024 gave us a glimpse of what he may truly be capable of, as he finished the year as the PPR WR9 in receiving league-average play under center with an aging Aaron Rodgers. In doing so he compiled career highs in receptions, yards and touchdowns, and is now entering just his age-25 (in July) season.
On the other hand sits veteran Metcalf, a 27-year-old in the theoretical prime of his career whose value has nevertheless been in decline since early on in the 2024 season.
Despite now functioning as the clear-cut WR1 in Pittsburgh following the trade of George Pickens to Dallas, the potential exists for a Metcalf resurgence. Unfortunately, he now faces the same problem Wilson dealt with for multiple years – the current leaders in the clubhouse for QB1 include luminaries such as Mason Rudolph, Will Howard and Skylar Thompson. Ironically, Metcalf’s best chance might be what prompted Wilson’s to-date career year in the long-reported but still-pending signing of Rodgers.
Again, Rodgers isn’t the player he once was, and Metcalf isn’t exactly Davante Adams. As shown below, both players missed a couple of games last year, but even with that, and with Adams’ midseason trade to the Jets (seriously, I get it, it’s seven degrees of Aaron Rodgers here), he soundly surpassed Metcalf’s 2024 outputs. But this isn’t an exercise in competitive measuring, but rather a potential vision of the future.
If the dominoes fall into place such that Metcalf and Rodgers are paired, I believe the receiver will do everything possible to sync up with the famously fickle quarterback. Perhaps more importantly, he will be the only show in town – while Rodgers has made a career out of upselling mid-level players, pass catchers such as Calvin Austin and Roman Wilson don’t seem like the likely next acts, and Robert Woods is a bit long in the tooth. As such I’d anticipate only tight end Pat Freiermuth contending for looks, meaning even in a conservative offense there will be meat on the bone for Metcalf.
As such, to me this deal becomes something of a Rorschach Test. I can understand the Metcalf side of the deal, as idealists might think the best is yet to come. Furthermore they may like pick 1.07, which seems unlikely to land a surefire stud, but could result in a second or third tier guy such as TreVeyon Henderson, Tyler Warren or Emeka Egbuka. If this is the case, then I do believe the deal is close enough to pull the trigger.
But for me, I’m sticking with Wilson. He’s done so much so fast with so little in the way of help. Even if Justin Fields perpetuates his Allen Robinson-esque quarterback-starved beginnings to his career, there remains ample time for him to get paired with a signal caller who can provide him with a Terry McLaurin type of resurgence. I’m a buyer of Metcalf as well, so if there exists a way to obtain Wilson without him (or vice versa), I’d be keen to do so.
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