Dynasty Decision: Tua Tagovailoa
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset becomes worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold, expecting that decline, only to continue defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB MIA
Few quarterbacks divide fantasy managers quite like Tagovailoa. Some view him as a high-efficiency field general tied to an elite offensive system. Others see a limited-upside quarterback who relies too heavily on scheme and supporting cast. This feels like a big year for the Dolphins and their quarterback, as the team has mortgaged a lot to push their chips into the middle. If they don’t make a deep post-season run this year, it could be time to blow it all up and move forward with a new regime.
Previous Performance
Tagovailoa entered the league with significant expectations as the fifth overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. His rookie year was up-and-down, and while he showed flashes of poise and accuracy, injuries, inconsistency, and being benched for Ryan Fitzpatrick limited his fantasy appeal. In 2021, he still failed to break out, averaging just 13.9 fantasy points per game and finishing outside the top 20 fantasy quarterbacks.
Everything changed in 2022 with the arrival of Mike McDaniel and Tyreek Hill. Tagovailoa’s efficiency exploded, and through the first half of the season, he was a top-ten fantasy quarterback. He averaged 17.8 points per game and posted several massive weeks, including four 23+ point outings and only one single-digit performance. However, concussion issues derailed his season, and durability concerns began to mount as, for the third season in a row, he played 13 or fewer games.
In 2023, Tagovailoa stayed healthy and started all 17 games. He led the NFL in passing yards (4,624) and finished with 29 touchdowns. However, from a fantasy standpoint, he was underwhelming. He finished as the QB9 overall, averaging 15.9 points per game, mainly because he lacked rushing production and consistency in big matchups. He had eight games under 15 fantasy points, often struggling against top defenses and in less-than-ideal weather.
In 2024, he again showed flashes of brilliance, especially early in the season, with explosive performances in the Dolphins’ fast-paced, YAC-heavy offense. But his production plateaued as the season progressed, and the Dolphins once again fizzled down the stretch. His final average of 16.5 points per game placed him right around the low-end QB1 or high-end QB2 mark in most formats. However, despite missing time and finishing the season disappointingly, 2024 was his second-best fantasy season on a per-game basis.
Situation and Usage
Tagovailoa is perhaps the biggest beneficiary of one of the NFL’s most innovative and explosive offensive systems. Mike McDaniel’s offense creates high-percentage throws and wide-open windows by motioning Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle into space. Tua excels at quick processing and short-to-intermediate accuracy, and the system hides his arm strength and mobility limitations.
However, that same system can also limit Tagovailoa’s ceiling. Despite the gaudy yardage totals, he remains a near-zero in the rushing department—he has only six total rushing touchdowns in his career and hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown or gone over 100 yards rushing in a season since 2021. That lack of rushing upside places a hard cap on his weekly ceiling, especially compared to dual-threat QBs in today’s fantasy landscape.
Furthermore, the Dolphins have built their identity around speed and spacing, which may not always be sustainable. If Hill (turning 31 years old) or Waddle were to miss time, Tagovailoa’s production could fall off dramatically. There’s also the looming concern about whether defenses have started to figure out the McDaniel system late in seasons when the weather begins to turn.
For Tagovailoa to continue to produce at the level of a QB1, we’re placing a lot of expectations and projections around McDaniel reinvigorating this offense to keep it one step ahead of the rest of the NFL.
Contract
Having signed a $212.4m extension less than 12 months ago in July 2024, you would expect there to be a significant amount of security around the Dolphins’ franchise quarterback. However, there is a world in which the Dolphins could potentially move on from him as soon as the 2026 off-season. If they designated him as a post June 1st cut, releasing Tagovailoa would leave the Dolphins with a 62.4m dead cap in 2026, which is massive but not impossible. If the Dolphins were able to trade him, they could save over $30m in cap space in 2026.
The likely scenario is that Tagovailoa is the starting quarterback for the Dolphins for at least the next two seasons. Even if things go badly in 2025, it is likely that any new regime would have a year of Tua under center before then being able to decide whether to move on from him or re-commit to him as their franchise quarterback.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the QB21 in January ADP and the 59th overall player. The trade analyzer has him worth the 1.05 in the 2025 draft or a random 2026 first-round pick and second-round pick in a superflex league. Recent trades are below:
Conclusion
Tua Tagovailoa feels like a straightforward target for hate and ridicule from a fantasy perspective. He is not a sexy target; he does not add any rushing production and is somewhat of a system quarterback rather than a player who consistently carries his team to wins. However, as a fantasy asset, he is currently significantly undervalued. When he is on the field, he is a fringe QB1 and locked up under contract as the starting quarterback for the Dolphins for at least the next two seasons. Those two things have significant value in superflex formats, where production at quarterback can make or break a team.
Yes, he isn’t appealing and sexy with sky-high upside. Still, at QB21 prices, he is significantly undervalued, considering you can almost guarantee you’re buying high-end QB2 production for the 2025 and 2026 seasons if you’re a contending team that has a risky/high-upside QB2 like one of the sophomore quarterbacks or Kyler Murray. Tagovailoa may be the perfect player to target as your QB3 because he is affordable and obtainable and will provide a reliable floor position. If you’re rebuilding, this is probably the wrong time to try and sell him, but it could be an ideal time to sell in September or October when he is back on the field and producing for fantasy early in the season.
Yes, it could all peter out this season in Miami, or Tagovailoa’s previous concussion and health issues could pop up again, but very few players with this level of production still in the prime of their careers are available at such a discounted price. Buy the dip while there is stink on the player and embrace it. You will likely be in a better position in six months.
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