Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: A Pair of Trades Involving Rookies
Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag, the preeminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land.
Mike Tyson once famously said: “everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.” For dynasty owners investing in the New Orleans Saints offense, or just fans of the team in general, this particular punch came in the form of quarterback Derek Carr’s abrupt retirement upon learning he wouldn’t be able to continue playing without having another surgery. 2025 ostensibly now represents the Tyler Shough experiment, with the team’s pass catchers reliant on the soon-to-be 26-year-old rookie’s ability to quickly acclimate to the pros.
Apart from running back Alvin Kamara, it would be a hard sell for me to want to count on the team’s offensive weapons. However, owners feeling similarly may want to offload talented receivers such as Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed in an effort to seek perceived immediacy of fantasy utility. The other side of the coin may then represent an opportunity to buy in on these players for 2026 and beyond, with the possibility they surprise us this season.
As a reminder, there are multiple ways to pose your burning questions! I’ll be soliciting weekly feedback via X/Twitter (look for a new pinned tweet each Monday), and you can also reach out using our Discord channel, or the old-fashioned way (via our online webform).
Let’s get to it!
From Discord…
Bucky-ing the Trend
Which side do you prefer for a contender in a 10-team, half-PPR, TE-premium superflex league – Tetairoa McMillan or Bucky Irving?
I’m actually a little surprised by the output from this one. Irving clearly proved his ability with a fine rookie season that ended with just over 1,500 total yards and eight scores. He also provided true dual-threat ability with 1,122 rushing yards (5.4 YPC) to go with 47 receptions on 52 targets, for another 392 yards at a crisp 8.3 YPR.
Advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
As shown above, the advanced metrics were also kind to Irving. He split his yards before contact (YBC) right down the middle with his yards after contact (YAC), with the latter tying for third best in the league. His broken tackles when rushing were more middling at one per every 17.3 attempts, but this jumped to one per every 7.8 receptions. In short he did honest work in both phases of the game, functioning as one of the most efficient ball carriers in the league as a rookie.
“Nothing someone says before the word ‘but’ really counts.” -Eddard (Ned) Stark
But…
Irving was a fourth-round pick in 2024, and a later one at that as pick #125. This doesn’t personally bother me, because Irving clearly showed he belonged. But anecdotally and subjectively, this type of draft status tends to linger with owners (Kyren Williams says hello), particularly when they’re pitted in direct comparison with early rookie selections like McMillan. Doubt begins to enter the mind as to just how committed NFL coaching staffs and decision makers could be to players who were selected with relatively lesser draft capital.
Depth chart courtesy of 4for4.com.
But this is where actions reign supreme. Not only did Tampa Bay fail to meaningfully address the position in the off-season, they doubled down by not taking a single ball carrier in the 2025 NFL Draft. This shows a level of commitment that belies Irving’s prior draft status, and coupled with his rookie season output, there’s no reason to believe he won’t continue to function as the team’s 1a running back moving forward.
Depth chart courtesy of 4for4.com.
On the flip side, our friends at 4for4 also put McMillan at the head of the pack in Carolina for the coming season. Adam Thielen, Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker should provide competition, but given his collegiate profile it’s not hard to see why he’s already the favorite entering the clubhouse.
Statistics courtesy of Sports Reference.
McMillan has put up back-to-back monster seasons following a solid freshman showing. This has resulted in the young receiver putting forward exemplary metrics for collegiate dominator and target share, while also breaking out at a young age. And while his 4.58-second 40-yard dash wasn’t exceptional, it’s more than adequate given his large frame at 6’4” and 219 pounds. Should he wind up lining up across from 2024 rookie Legette, they would represent size and speed mismatch nightmares for defenders.
Given the context is that of a contending team, the next question may center around opinions of Panthers signal caller Bryce Young. While his numbers were far from sterling, they were clearly an upgrade on a calamitous rookie season. All told, he improved his completion percentage, YPA and touchdown-to-interception ratio while taking fewer than half the sacks as he did in his rookie year. And while there were still some ups and downs, he played better down the stretch after getting reinserted under center, concluding the year with 10 total scores and no interceptions in the season’s final three games, two of which resulted in Carolina wins.
This is promising, but it’s hard to argue it’s a surefire harbinger of what’s to come. Young still needs to take multiple steps forward to even approach league-average play – while the late 2024 returns were encouraging, they didn’t inherently proclaim an ability to feature multiple assets in the passing game. So as good as McMillan might turn out to be, he may still be at least initially constrained by his environment.
Given the totality of this, I have to go with the Irving side. To me he represents more of a sure thing, particularly as he concluded his rookie year as the half-PPR RB14 despite not being featured until midway through the season. And though he may not have McMillan’s draft capital, he already has the pro production – and subjectively, if 2024 received a do-over, I have no doubt he’d be the first ball carrier selected, potentially as early as in the first round. Pencils have erasers, and Irving can use his to continue writing the story of a productive NFL ball carrier.
Carry On My Wayward Jeffer-Son
Which side do you prefer for a rebuilding squad in a 12-team, PPR, TE-premium superflex league – Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Chuba Hubbard, or Omarion Hampton, JK Dobbins and 2025 pick 3.02?
I won’t bury the lede here. I’m in total alignment with the DLF Trade Analyzer, though I will confess some surprise as my assumption was Hampton’s valuation would’ve been a bit higher and closer to Smith-Njigba’s. After all he was a first-round selection in the 2025 NFL Draft, who wound up in one of the more running back-friendly offenses in Los Angeles. Even in superflex settings he’s routinely being selected as the second overall player behind Ashton Jeanty.
But even given that I still prefer JSN in a vacuum. Despite having target competition from veterans DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, the second-year pass catcher concluded 2024 as the PPR WR10, largely by functioning as a player who caught a high percentage of his targets in the short area of the field. To that point, he had an average depth of target (aDOT) of 8.7 yards, while Metcalf’s was 13.0 yards and Lockett’s was 10.7 yards. And while it was an improvement from his adot of 6.1 yards in his rookie season, the fact is he’s more of a chain mover than a field stretcher.
Advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
With that said, it will be interesting to see how his game evolves with both Metcalf and Lockett moving on, and veteran Cooper Kupp signing with the team in the off-season. The former Ram’s game has a lot of similarities and potential redundancies with Smith-Njigba’s, which could lead to a reshuffling of roles. If JSN can more approach his collegiate utilization, where he averaged a robust 16.9 YPR in his breakout sophomore season, it could be of benefit to his fantasy stock.
Depth chart courtesy of 4for4.com.
Still, despite the Trade Analyzer’s outputs, I understand why rational minds could differ as to who is the better asset between JSN and Hampton. But this is where Hubbard enters the fray. Despite his seemingly lesser stature, this is a player who has vastly outplayed his current ADP. I’ve spilled significant ink proclaiming this to the dynasty masses and as such won’t do so again here in this space – but the short version is he’s the top dog on an improving offense where he functions as the team’s engine. Despite playing on poor offensive squads he’s put up good and efficient numbers, and has also shown utility in the passing game. For this reason the Carolina brass rewarded him with a new contract during the 2024 season, which has recently again been accentuated by the fact that backfield mate Jonathon Brooks will miss the entirety of the 2025 campaign.
No mere throw-in, Hubbard’s value is vastly greater than that of the combination of Dobbins and the third-round dart throw. Still only 25, he’s a highly sensible add for both contending and rebuilding squads alike. His inclusion alongside JSN represents the thundering hammer stroke pounding the last nail in the coffin of the Hampton side, which to me would require a bit more heft for it to be resuscitated.
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