My Dynasty Off-Season: Ten Rookie Draft Thoughts
Well, that was fun. Another year in the books, and hopefully you were able to grab that dynasty league championship. While the games are thrilling and the results matter, this is the time of year I really look forward to. Yes, the off-season is my favorite part of fantasy football. I love diving into the NFL Draft, analyzing rookies, re-assessing the veteran dynasty landscape, and giving you all the info I can to help you get ready for the upcoming season.
This year, I’m continuing my series – My Dynasty Off-Season. This is where I pull back the curtain a little to share what I’m doing in terms of team building, roster evaluation, player assessments, trade possibilities, value changes, and anything else that’s on my mind. I hope this series helps guide you through the off-season and positions you for success next year.
This is truly the best time of the year for dynasty managers. There really is no more exciting time the annual rookie draft. This event is where you either roll the dice on a hot prospect, hoping you find the next big thing without wasting valuable capital or rebuild your team by spinning draft picks for current veteran value. This is also where the best dynasty managers separate themselves. After all, anyone can make a pick in the top ten or so – it takes a savvy manager to nail the later round picks. Every year is different and I thought today was a great day to share some of my general thoughts about this year’s class.
1.) There is a Real Choice as to who is the WR1
As of today, our dynasty rookie rankings list Travis Hunter as the WR1 in the class with Tetairoa McMillan right behind. In fact, their ranking averages are 3.17 and 3.67, respectively, which is razor thin. On one hand, Hunter could be unbelievable but with his talent on defense, it’s possible he really isn’t truly a full-time starter there. With McMillan, he just seems like such a safe pick and when you’re choosing in the top five, mitigating risk is important. In the end, I think Hunter should be the choice as the Jags just really can’t afford to keep him off the field after giving up so much to get him. I like McMillan as well, but the upside with Hunter is just too enticing.
2.) The Ohio State Running Backs are in a Real Battle
The first two running backs off the board are going to be Ashton Jeanty of the Raiders and Omarion Hampton of the Chargers in virtually every league. However, it really looks like Quinshon Judkins (Browns) and TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots) are in a dead heat to be the RB3 of the class. Right now, Judkins’ ranking average is 6.00 and Henderson’s is 6.33. I personally prefer Judkins, as I think the addition of Dylan Sampson could be a little overblown. In addition, I still think Rhamondre Stevenson is good enough to carve out a solid role. You really can’t go wrong with either, but I like the game of Judkins a little better as I think his consistency will be better than what could be some up and down weeks from the more explosive Henderson.
3.) Shedeur Sanders will be Overdrafted
I went back and looked up the quarterbacks taken in the fifth round in the past ten drafts. This list consists of Brett Hundley, Nathan Peterman, Mike White, Clayton Thorson, Jake Fromm, Sam Howell, Spencer Rattler, and Jordan Travis. Sure, Sanders has a chance. However, it’s clear the NFL didn’t believe his talent outweighed the baggage he would bring to a team. The Browns took Dillon Gabriel ahead of him and while Sanders will have some chances, I just don’t see this ending well and I have a hunch I’ll have zero shares of Sanders when all is said and done as dynasty managers will likely believe they know something the NFL does not – that’s rarely the case.
4.) Brock Bowers has Changed our Minds
Taking tight ends in round one of a rookie draft has been a minefield for a long, long time. Players like Kyle Pitts even soured us more recently. However, Brock Bowers and his dominance last year have changed everything as both Tyler Warren and Colston Loveland both look like first round picks. I still hate investing in tight end this early in a rookie draft, but I’m now warming to the idea a bit.
5.) RJ Harvey is going to be a Lightning Rod
I like Harvey’s opportunity a lot and believe he has a real chance to be a dynasty asset for a long time. However, I’m also really wary of running backs who rise this much because of their landing spot. Harvey was a third round rookie pick in the pre-draft process and now looks like a late first rounder. I’m not saying he shouldn’t be selected there, but there’s more risk here than people think.
6.) A Late Round Running Back is Bound to Hit
My favorite part of rookie drafts (and dynasty leagues in general) is hitting on a late round rookie pick. This year, I think there are several running backs taken on day three who have a real chance. This list includes Jarquez Hunter (Rams). Jordan James (49ers), Jaydon Blue (Cowboys), DJ Giddens (Colts), Devin Neal (Saints) and Kyle Monangai (Bears). I wouldn’t go selling the farm for this group of players, but I also would have no problem trading back from round three to compile more late round draft picks in an attempt to get as many of these players as possible.
7.) Tyler Shough is a Dice Roll
With the retirement of Derek Carr, Shough’s rookie ranking and ADP is going to start rising. There’s certainly an element of risk associated with him while both Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins remain in limbo. However, there’s also an easy pathway to an early opportunity for him. He’s experienced and seasoned, which tends to work out more often than not. However, there are some red flags concerning his durability and accuracy and he’s really turning into a gamble, especially in Superflex formats.
8.) Jalen Milroe is Polarizing
We’ll get to a couple of other players who really dropped from last year to this year, but Milroe is truly tantalizing. The Seahawks have Sam Darnold for this season and it’s hard to see Milroe challenging him in any way. However, there’s a real chance he could be a bad Darnold season away from landing this job. If he can fix his accuracy (something very tough to do at the NFL level) and become more than just a runner or deep ball thrower. He had an awful season and really dropped in the eyes of dynasty managers, but there could still be something here and I’ve personally made him one of my top targets in the later rounds of rookie drafts this year.
9.) Luther Burden and Ollie Gordon just aren’t who we expected
Speaking of down years, Burden and Gordon were supposed to be top-five dynasty rookies this year. Instead, Burden is likely a high second rounder and Gordon has turned into a dart throw. It’s an amazing turn of events for players who were so highly regarded (much like Milroe) at this time last year. These players are also at risk of being overdrafted based on their name value, but Burden no longer looks like a sure things and Gordon is a total mystery.
10.) Ashton Jeanty is bulletproof
And finally, this brings me to Jeanty. There aren’t many years where you have a unanimous 1.01 in both a conventional and a Superflex draft. To have that, you need to have what everyone believes is a can’t miss prospect like Adrian Peterson or Saquon Barkley. Jeanty has emerged as that player this year and his trade value is through the roof. If you want the 1.01 this year, you’re going to have to give up a player like Brian Thomas Jr., Brock Bowers, Puka Nacua, or Bijan Robinson to have a chance at him – this is rarified air.
I’ll be back soon with more!
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
