Dynasty Decision: James Cook
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset becomes worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to continue defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
James Cook, RB BUF
Since entering the league, James Cook has been one of the more polarizing dynasty assets. While he lacks the traditional bell-cow profile, he’s carved out a valuable role on a high-powered offense and has flashed big-play potential. However, with changing dynamics in the Buffalo offense, dynasty managers need to assess whether he’s a long-term piece or if now is the perfect time to cash out.
Previous Performance
Cook was drafted in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft by the Buffalo Bills, bringing expectations of explosive plays and receiving versatility. His rookie season was relatively quiet behind Devin Singletary, though he did manage over 500 rushing yards and flashed efficiency with 5.7 yards per carry.
He took over lead-back duties in 2023 and delivered a breakout season, rushing for 1,122 yards on 237 carries (4.7 YPC) and adding 44 receptions for 445 yards and four receiving touchdowns. He finished as the RB11 in PPR formats despite only scoring six total touchdowns.
In 2024, Cook’s efficiency remained solid, but his usage was more volatile. He posted 1,009 rushing yards and 258 receiving yards, but his touchdowns regressed to an incredible rate. Cook finished the season with an impressive 18 touchdowns, which hugely buoyed his fantasy finish, considering his rushing and receiving yardage totals were down in the 2023 season. His 16.5 PPR points per game slotted him into the back-end RB1 tier, finishing eighth overall. Whether the increased touchdown production is a one-year blip or a sign of things to come will remain a question moving forward.
Situation and Usage
On the surface, Cook’s situation feels like a hugely beneficial environment. The Bills have spent the past few seasons building an incredible offensive line and overall offensive infrastructure. Cook has been one of the primary beneficiaries as an explosive who sees enough volume to produce impressively. Last year’s incredible touchdown production shows how good the surrounding talent is.
Despite this fantastic surrounding talent, the Bills seem committed to reducing James Cook’s overall workload. They spent a fourth-round pick last season on Ray Davis and continue to feed Ty Johnson, particularly in the passing game.
The likelihood is that Cook will see significant volume again in 2025 but will likely see a slight reduction in touchdown production. His TD rate of 7.7% was significantly higher than his career average of 3.8%. If he’d produced at his career average in the touchdown department, he would have scored eight fewer touchdowns. That would drop Cook from 16.5 points per game to 13.5 points per game. That’s the equivalent of dropping from RB11 in points per game to RB21.
Contract
We head to the most fascinating part of the James Cook evaluation. His contract appears to be a hot-button topic this entire off-season. Cook is scheduled to play the final year of his rookie contract in the 2025 season. There is some expectation that the Bills would extend him this off-season to lock him up for the next two or three seasons. However, the Bills seem comfortable letting Cook play out the season on his current contract and head into next season as a free agent. They could obviously still retain him at that point, but he could end up moving on to a new home.
A huge amount of Cook’s value and production is because he is the lead back at the head of one of the best offenses in the entire league. If you remove him from that situation, his fantasy production and overall value are going to take a massive hit.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the RB12 in April ADP and the 53rd overall player. The trade analyzer has him worth the 1.09 in the 2025 draft or a 2026 first and third-round pick in a superflex league. Recent trades are below:
Conclusion
Cook could be one of the most significant dynasty decisions across the player landscape. If you’re a contender and purely focused on the 2025 season, he is likely a great buy, as he is undervalued based on his likely production this season. However, if you’re looking beyond 2025, there is a huge question mark around not only his production but also what team he will be playing on, given the lack of contract security with the Bills.
If you’re comfortable with the risk associated with paying a late first to acquire reliable RB1 production without knowing what the asset will be worth beyond this season, it’s a great price to pay for that.
If you’re not likely to contend in 2025, then you need to be proactive in moving off of him, as this is very likely the final sell-now window. If you could bring in around the 1.09 in value, you could potentially grab a younger back like Quinshon Judkins or RJ Harvey.
There is a chance that the bills extend Cook or that he lands as the centerpiece of another high-powered offense. If that happens, he will likely have a prolonged period of production, but that feels unlikely at this time, and I think he will end up playing in 2026 and beyond in a worse situation overall.
- Dynasty Decision: DK Metcalf - June 6, 2025
- Dynasty Decision: Breece Hall - May 30, 2025
- Dynasty Decision: Jaylen Waddle - May 23, 2025
