Derek Carr Retires: The Dynasty Fantasy Football Impact
Every once in a while, the NFL throws you a bit of a curveball. That happened just this morning as the New Orleans Saints announced on social media that quarterback Derek Carr is retiring. While there was a lot of speculation about Carr missing time this year (or even the season), there were also rumors of him simply being unhappy with the direction of the team and wanting to move on. Instead, today brought us a real stunner as the shoulder injury he sustained last year is going to reportedly end his entire career. It’s an announcement that has a ripple effect in terms of dynasty values and could impact not only the Saints skill players, but possibly some other quarterbacks not currently on the roster as well. Let’s re-assess some player values as we pick up the pieces in the Crescent City.
Derek Carr, QB FA
When Carr was drafted by the Oakland Raiders in the second round of the 2014 NFL Draft, expectations were tempered. After all, he was gritty and tough, but not nearly as talented as his brother was coming out of college. What the Raiders got was much more than they expected as Carr blossomed into a solid starter for nearly a decade. After things soured in Las Vegas, he signed with the Saints in 2023 and had some success as well. All in all, he ends his career with 41,245 passing yards and 257 touchdowns over 169 games played for those two franchises.
Ultimately, it seems the shoulder injury he’s reportedly been dealing with is indeed very serious. He apparently has a labral tear and degenerative rotator cuff damage to his right shoulder. In other words, his arm has given out. There was some speculation Carr was posturing for an exit out of New Orleans and wasn’t happy with the team’s direction and while that may be true, this injury is reportedly going to end his career, making any of that irrelevant. It’s a tough break for the team and obviously for Carr himself, who will end his career with 41,245 passing yards and 257 touchdowns – not bad for the “other” Carr, who was never as heralded as his brother, but performed much better over his 11-year career. In the end, he was the perfect quarterback for the “Zero QB” drafter. You could get him in the late rounds and build your team around other positions, getting him later in the draft, knowing you’d get a player who was reliable and solid but not necessarily elite – a perfect and valuable asset in a dynasty league.
Carr can now be dropped from rosters, though this is another instance where a league should have a rule in place where the team that drops him retains his rights should he ever be able to come back and play again in the NFL, as unlikely as that may be.
Tyler Shough, QB NO
The Saints took Shough with the 40th pick in last year’s NFL Draft and it now makes perfect sense as to why they were so focused on scouting quarterbacks this off-season. Barring the Saints adding a veteran (more on that later) in the coming months, this looks like the break he needed to start. He’s certainly been productive in his stints with Oregon, Texas Tech and Louisville, throwing for nearly 3,200 yards with 23 touchdowns and six interceptions last year for the Cardinals. At 25, he’s an older prospect. However, he’s also a player who looks to be seasoned and could be mature enough for the job.
All in all, there are a lot of questions about Shough, but there isn’t a ton of competition as he’ll likely need to beat out Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener for the job. He needs to improve in a lot of areas and could be in line for some serious bumps in the road and faces the possibility of being thrown to the wolves too early, but he may very well not have much of a choice and dynasty managers are going to see his ADP rise a touch now even if many simply don’t believe in his ability.
Spencer Rattler, QB NO
Remember when Rattler was a “can’t miss” prospect coming out of Oklahoma? Well, that seems like light years ago as he now faces more competition to be relevant. He had some chances last season, throwing for 1,317 yards with four touchdowns and five interceptions, but his 57% completion percentage is a serious problem and we really didn’t see many flashes of brilliance from him. If the Saints really believed he could be the answer at quarterback, they likely wouldn’t have taken Shough in the draft this season. Rattler is a weak hold in a conventional dynasty league and a little better one in a 2QB or Superflex league, but this move doesn’t move the needle much for him, honestly.
Jake Haener, QB NO
Haener may have a better chance at making the roster with Carr gone, but it’s hard to see a path to relevance for him as well. You can move along.
Alvin Kamara, RB NO
Even after eight seasons, Kamara continues to be effective. In fact, he set a career high last year with 950 rushing yards. He also caught 68 passes last season for another 543 yards, scoring a total of eight times in the process. Now 29, it’s hard to see too many more seasons of relevance from him, but the Saints are going to do their best to get him touches next season as they very well may have a rookie quarterback to protect from disaster. He’ll likely command even more attention from defenses next year, but may end up with more touches as well, mitigating most of that. While Devin Neal, Kendre Miller and Clyde Edwards-Heliare are also in the mix, it’s hard to see any of them really taking significant value away from him in the short-term. If Taysom Hill isn’t back, that helps as well. All in all, Kamara looks like a good RB2 on a dynasty team and a solid target for a dynasty team in contention in their league as we all try to squeeze as much production as we can from another aging running back.
Chris Olave, WR NO
The Saints must believe Olave is going to be able to bounce back from his nasty bout with concussions and have a solid career after they exercised his fifth-year option. However, his ADP took a serious nosedive last year, going from the teens all the way down near 50. It’s starting to creep back up now that most believe he’s going to stay healthy. However, it’s hard to look at Shough and think he’s going to be as good for Olave as Carr was. The expectation is for that ADP number of Olave’s to likely flatten out here in the mid-30’s until we see him perform again on the field and have the confidence in whoever the quarterback is for the Saints. He’s a high ceiling “buy” candidate at the moment, but also one that carries some serious risk.
Other Saints Receivers
This list includes players like Rashid Shaheed, Brandin Cooks, and to a lesser extent, Bub Means and Cedrick Wilson. The move from Carr to Shough doesn’t help this group much. Shaheed is coming off an injury, Cooks hasn’t shown the same juice we saw early in his career and the others really don’t have much of a defined role. Much like Olave, we’re going to need to see some real production from the Saints quarterback to have much confidence in any of these players. Asking a player like Shough to make not just one but two or more receivers fantasy relevant could be asking a lot.
Aaron Rodgers, QB FA
Well, this is interesting. The Steelers seem to think Rodgers is going to be signing with them as soon as the schedule is released this week. Does New Orleans make a phone call now just to see if A-Rod is interested? It’s not out of the question as the Saints do have players they can win with and Rodgers, while not his vintage form, should be better than anyone they have on their roster. This saga will end soon enough, but there’s some intrigue here.
Kirk Cousins, QB ATL
The other quarterback in play could be Cousins. The sticky point is seeing the Falcons deal him to a team in their own division. However, if Shough doesn’t look ready in training camp, the Saints may have a sense of urgency to make a quick change. It’s just hard to see Cousins really spending next season as a backup, but the reality is there are only two teams with question marks at quarterback and that’s the Saints and Steelers. His ADP has bottomed out but would start creeping back up quickly should he get moved. Dynasty managers just need to remember something important – he wasn’t good last year.
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
