Dynasty Rookie Drafts: Rookies Destined to be Underdrafted
Dynasty rookie drafts are complex. There is a multitude of factors that determine a prospect’s fantasy football value and likelihood of both immediate and future success. But, once the NFL Draft is in the books, there are bound to be players who are being underrated and underdrafted due to nothing other than perceived circumstance.
A bad landing spot often contains outsized importance for fantasy managers, but talent is talent and should eventually win the day. On the other hand, pre-draft love can outweigh a horrible post-draft situation (Shedeur Sanders potentially says hi). Rookie valuations represent a delicate balancing act between all of the information that we have at our disposal, including both before and after the NFL Draft. We can’t ignore what happened when the NFL’s 32 teams told us what they thought, but we can’t overinflate their importance at the expense of our own clear thinking.
As such, here is a list of players who I believe have been underdrafted in superflex rookie drafts taking place since the conclusion of the 2025 NFL Draft, and why their value should be higher.
Cam Ward, QB TEN (Round 1, Pick 1; ADP = 4.0)
This one is pretty straightforward to me. Ward was the #1 pick of the 2025 NFL Draft, and he plays the most important position in a superflex setting. Despite this, he’s going as the third player off the board in this format. Almost by default, this makes him undervalued.
Just consider the above, which represents the most current superflex ADP in startup drafts. The top four players are quarterbacks, as are six of the top eight, and 11 in the draft’s first two rounds. Meanwhile 2025 sophomores Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, NFL first-round picks and last year’s PPR RB4 and RB1, respectively, are on the first-round fringe. Eight receivers managed to penetrate the top 24 picks, as did one tight end in Brock Bowers – but it’s clear that signal callers possess a ceiling unmatched by the other positions.
Statistics courtesy of Sports Reference.
That said, Ward earned his selection as the first player taken in April. What can be gleaned from the above is a player who improved each year before truly exploding in 2024, where he completed over two-thirds of his passes for a robust 9.5 YPA, while tossing 39 scores to only seven interceptions. When factoring out the 22 sacks taken for 142 yards, he provided some spunk on the ground with 346 yards on only 38 attempts (9.1 YPA), along with a rushing score. While not game-breaking, this would have been an addition 3.1 fantasy points per game, a number which could be further bolstered if he could get into the end zone with a slightly greater frequency.
All told, his ascension is reminiscent of Joe Burrow, another player who was well off the first overall pick radar, but has since proven his stripes. The Titans don’t represent the best opportunity for immediate success, having paid the iron price for the 1.01. It would have been nice if the team addressed the offensive line in the draft, but they at least picked two receivers and a tight end in round four, and also signed veteran Tyler Lockett. If Ward puts up average to above-average numbers with this group, he’ll shoot up the dynasty ranks.
Emeka Egbuka, WR TB (Round 1, Pick 19; ADP = 11.4)
Egbuka is a round-one talent who went to one of the worst situations for immediate success in the NFL. This being dynasty football, you wouldn’t think this would have made such a dramatic difference in his valuation, yet he’s being selected behind three players (ironically including two of his Buckeye teammates) who went in the NFL Draft’s second or third round in TreVeyon Henderson, Quinshon Judkins and Kaleb Johnson. He’s barely ahead of RJ Harvey, a late-rising running back who was nevertheless picked 41 spots after Egbuka.
Depth chart courtesy of 4for4.com.
Mike Evans still has yet to meet a season where he couldn’t accrue 1,000 yards or finish as a PPR WR2 or better, but he will be 32 years old before the season starts. Godwin signed a three-year contract in the off-season with $44 million guaranteed, but he’s also 29 years old and is coming off an ankle dislocation in 2024 (though he appears to be on track for a successful return). The point is even though these two veteran stalwarts are blocking Egbuka’s path for now, they aren’t going to play forever and he’s already the third most talented pass catcher on the team.
Egbuka’s measureables aren’t anything special, but he broke out in college fairly early and had an above average dominator rating. He was also reportedly one of the best interviews during the run-up to the draft, with NFL analyst Peter Schrager noting he “won the interview process and is universally beloved.” Even if the returns are slow, for these reasons I believe they are inevitable.
Jaxson Dart, QB NYG (Round 1, Pick 25; ADP = 12.9)
Dart reminds me of his 2024 rookie predecessor, Bo Nix (apart from the reverse PAC-12 to SEC journey). While he doesn’t quite have Nix’s collegiate CV (who does?), he started 45 total contests while improving each season. He concluded with a sterling 2024 campaign where he completed almost 70% of his passes at a whopping 10.8 YPA, while compiling a 29:6 touchdown to interception ratio. Also similar to Nix he did some honest work on the ground, with 1,541 yards over four years – though he didn’t run the 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, he’s fast enough on tape to add some spice with his legs.
Stats courtesy of Sports Reference.
Past that, you can rinse and repeat what I said about Ward above. Dart is an NFL Draft first-round signal caller who is going in the second round of superflex rookie drafts. And while it’s true he doesn’t have Ward’s pathway to immediate viability, the Giants aren’t going to suffer through a(nother) miserable season with a declining 36-year-old Russell Wilson leading the team nowhere, or Jameis W-INT-ston chucking YOLO balls to players regardless of jersey color. And when Dart gets his chance, he’ll have one of the best young receivers in the league in Malik Nabers to throw the ball too, along with an ascending talent in tight end Theo Johnson and stalwart Darius Slayton.
It’s not a hard and fast rule, but I just have a tough time taking players in lower rounds over first-round draft picks. It’s true Dart went towards the end of the first round, but it’s equally true that New York traded back in specifically to nab him. Particularly in a superflex setting, it’s not a dart throw counting on Dart throws (had to).
Jayden Higgins, WR HOU (Round 2, Pick 34; ADP = 17.3)
Measureables courtesy of Mock Draftable.
These are the dimensions and metrics of a large, bad man. Piling on, Higgins also broke out before he turned 20, and commanded an impressive collegiate target share. For these reasons, he was selected just outside of the draft’s first two rounds.
I’m not an NFL talent evaluator, nor do I play one on TV. But Higgins seems like the exact type of player that the Green Bay Packers could’ve used – a large-dimension, big-play threat who earns a robust quantity of looks. Instead they opted for Matthew Golden, a speedster of small stature who never had a 1,000-yard season in college and who only managed 86 targets across 16 contests in 2024.
I know I said I typically don’t like selecting later-round picks after earlier-round picks, but Higgins was only 11 slots behind Golden. He’s also falling well behind players like Judkins and Henderson, who were selected in his same range. This looks like a missed opportunity to me, especially as Higgins seems likely to step into the WR2 role with Houston in year one, as a bookend to fellow physical specimen Nico Collins. He’s a player on whom I’d be looking to buy the dip, and who I think will be a dark horse to put up PPR WR2 numbers as a rookie.
Mason Taylor, TE NYJ (Round 2, Pick 42; ADP = 22.3)
At first glance, it’s hard to get excited about Taylor’s collegiate production. Through three years he compiled a total line of 129-1,308-6, which is roughly equivalent to Tyler Warren’s senior year. As usual though, context is needed.
Nabers and Kayshon Boutte were LSU’s top targets in 2022, though Taylor did finish third on the team in receptions and yards. 2023 was the Nabers and Brian Thomas show, with Taylor understandably falling down the pecking order. In 2024 his numbers ticked up to a career-best line of 55-546-2, with those receptions standing as a single-season record at LSU. All told, his career yardage also represents a tight end team record.
Particularly when it comes to the tight end position, a lack of production doesn’t indicate a lack of talent. Very few at the position function as their team’s top target, especially given the demands to stay in line and block. But Taylor has the requisite size and speed to translate his athleticism and skill at the next level. And while I largely avoid drafting for position or situation (or both), Taylor could very well be the Jets’ #2 target in the passing game as a rookie – if he can put up reasonable numbers, he’ll shoot up the dynasty ranks and more than make good on his current value.
Dynasty rookie drafts are complex. There is a multitude of factors that determine a prospect’s fantasy football value and likelihood of both immediate and future success. But, once the NFL Draft is in the books, there are bound to be players who are being underrated and underdrafted due to nothing other than perceived circumstance.
A bad landing spot often contains outsized importance for fantasy managers, but talent is talent and should eventually win the day. On the other hand, pre-draft love can outweigh a horrible post-draft situation (Shedeur Sanders potentially says hi). Rookie valuations represent a delicate balancing act between all of the information that we have at our disposal, including both before and after the NFL Draft. We can’t ignore what happened when the NFL’s 32 teams told us what they thought, but we can’t overinflate their importance at the expense of our own clear thinking.
As such, here is a list of players who I believe have been underdrafted in superflex rookie drafts taking place since the conclusion of the 2025 NFL Draft, and why their value should be higher.
Cam Ward, QB TEN (Round 1, Pick 1; ADP = 4.0)
This one is pretty straightforward to me. Ward was the #1 pick of the 2025 NFL Draft, and he plays the most important position in a superflex setting. Despite this, he’s going as the third player off the board in this format. Almost by default, this makes him undervalued.
Just consider the above, which represents the most current superflex ADP in startup drafts. The top four players are quarterbacks, as are six of the top eight, and 11 in the draft’s first two rounds. Meanwhile 2025 sophomores Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, NFL first-round picks and last year’s PPR RB4 and RB1, respectively, are on the first-round fringe. Eight receivers managed to penetrate the top 24 picks, as did one tight end in Brock Bowers – but it’s clear that signal callers possess a ceiling unmatched by the other positions.
Statistics courtesy of Sports Reference.
That said, Ward earned his selection as the first player taken in April. What can be gleaned from the above is a player who improved each year before truly exploding in 2024, where he completed over two-thirds of his passes for a robust 9.5 YPA, while tossing 39 scores to only seven interceptions. When factoring out the 22 sacks taken for 142 yards, he provided some spunk on the ground with 346 yards on only 38 attempts (9.1 YPA), along with a rushing score. While not game-breaking, this would have been an addition 3.1 fantasy points per game, a number which could be further bolstered if he could get into the end zone with a slightly greater frequency.
All told, his ascension is reminiscent of Joe Burrow, another player who was well off the first overall pick radar, but has since proven his stripes. The Titans don’t represent the best opportunity for immediate success, having paid the iron price for the 1.01. It would have been nice if the team addressed the offensive line in the draft, but they at least picked two receivers and a tight end in round four, and also signed veteran Tyler Lockett. If Ward puts up average to above-average numbers with this group, he’ll shoot up the dynasty ranks.
Emeka Egbuka, WR TB (Round 1, Pick 19; ADP = 11.4)
Egbuka is a round-one talent who went to one of the worst situations for immediate success in the NFL. This being dynasty football, you wouldn’t think this would have made such a dramatic difference in his valuation, yet he’s being selected behind three players (ironically including two of his Buckeye teammates) who went in the NFL Draft’s second or third round in TreVeyon Henderson, Quinshon Judkins and Kaleb Johnson. He’s barely ahead of RJ Harvey, a late-rising running back who was nevertheless picked 41 spots after Egbuka.
Depth chart courtesy of 4for4.com.
Mike Evans still has yet to meet a season where he couldn’t accrue 1,000 yards or finish as a PPR WR2 or better, but he will be 32 years old before the season starts. Godwin signed a three-year contract in the off-season with $44 million guaranteed, but he’s also 29 years old and is coming off an ankle dislocation in 2024 (though he appears to be on track for a successful return). The point is even though these two veteran stalwarts are blocking Egbuka’s path for now, they aren’t going to play forever and he’s already the third most talented pass catcher on the team.
Egbuka’s measureables aren’t anything special, but he broke out in college fairly early and had an above average dominator rating. He was also reportedly one of the best interviews during the run-up to the draft, with NFL analyst Peter Schrager noting he “won the interview process and is universally beloved.” Even if the returns are slow, for these reasons I believe they are inevitable.
Jaxson Dart, QB NYG (Round 1, Pick 25; ADP = 12.9)
Dart reminds me of his 2024 rookie predecessor, Bo Nix (apart from the reverse PAC-12 to SEC journey). While he doesn’t quite have Nix’s collegiate CV (who does?), he started 45 total contests while improving each season. He concluded with a sterling 2024 campaign where he completed almost 70% of his passes at a whopping 10.8 YPA, while compiling a 29:6 touchdown to interception ratio. Also similar to Nix he did some honest work on the ground, with 1,541 yards over four years – though he didn’t run the 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, he’s fast enough on tape to add some spice with his legs.
Stats courtesy of Sports Reference.
Past that, you can rinse and repeat what I said about Ward above. Dart is an NFL Draft first-round signal caller who is going in the second round of superflex rookie drafts. And while it’s true he doesn’t have Ward’s pathway to immediate viability, the Giants aren’t going to suffer through a(nother) miserable season with a declining 36-year-old Russell Wilson leading the team nowhere, or Jameis W-INT-ston chucking YOLO balls to players regardless of jersey color. And when Dart gets his chance, he’ll have one of the best young receivers in the league in Malik Nabers to throw the ball too, along with an ascending talent in tight end Theo Johnson and stalwart Darius Slayton.
It’s not a hard and fast rule, but I just have a tough time taking players in lower rounds over first-round draft picks. It’s true Dart went towards the end of the first round, but it’s equally true that New York traded back in specifically to nab him. Particularly in a superflex setting, it’s not a dart throw counting on Dart throws (had to).
Jayden Higgins, WR HOU (Round 2, Pick 34; ADP = 17.3)
Measureables courtesy of Mock Draftable.
These are the dimensions and metrics of a large, bad man. Piling on, Higgins also broke out before he turned 20, and commanded an impressive collegiate target share. For these reasons, he was selected just outside of the draft’s first two rounds.
I’m not an NFL talent evaluator, nor do I play one on TV. But Higgins seems like the exact type of player that the Green Bay Packers could’ve used – a large-dimension, big-play threat who earns a robust quantity of looks. Instead they opted for Matthew Golden, a speedster of small stature who never had a 1,000-yard season in college and who only managed 86 targets across 16 contests in 2024.
I know I said I typically don’t like selecting later-round picks after earlier-round picks, but Higgins was only 11 slots behind Golden. He’s also falling well behind players like Judkins and Henderson, who were selected in his same range. This looks like a missed opportunity to me, especially as Higgins seems likely to step into the WR2 role with Houston in year one, as a bookend to fellow physical specimen Nico Collins. He’s a player on whom I’d be looking to buy the dip, and who I think will be a dark horse to put up PPR WR2 numbers as a rookie.
Mason Taylor, TE NYJ (Round 2, Pick 42; ADP = 22.3)
At first glance, it’s hard to get excited about Taylor’s collegiate production. Through three years he compiled a total line of 129-1,308-6, which is roughly equivalent to Tyler Warren’s senior year. As usual though, context is needed.
Nabers and Kayshon Boutte were LSU’s top targets in 2022, though Taylor did finish third on the team in receptions and yards. 2023 was the Nabers and Brian Thomas show, with Taylor understandably falling down the pecking order. In 2024 his numbers ticked up to a career-best line of 55-546-2, with those receptions standing as a single-season record at LSU. All told, his career yardage also represents a tight end team record.
Particularly when it comes to the tight end position, a lack of production doesn’t indicate a lack of talent. Very few at the position function as their team’s top target, especially given the demands to stay in line and block. But Taylor has the requisite size and speed to translate his athleticism and skill at the next level. And while I largely avoid drafting for position or situation (or both), Taylor could very well be the Jets’ #2 target in the passing game as a rookie – if he can put up reasonable numbers, he’ll shoot up the dynasty ranks and more than make good on his current value.
