Dynasty rookie drafts are not easy. There are so many factors that go into determining a prospect’s fantasy football value and future success. But, once the NFL Draft is in the books, there are bound to be players who are being overrated and overdrafted. For some players, there is too much focus put on the pre-draft process, and not enough on what actually happened in Green Bay at the end of April. For other players, the landing spot and draft capital are so juicy, that managers ignore the red flags that pushed their value down in the pre-draft process.
Rookie valuations are a delicate balancing act between all of the information that we have at our disposal, not just the most recent or the loudest. We can’t ignore what happened during the NFL Draft, but we can’t overinflate its importance either.
Here is a list of players who have been overdrafted in early superflex rookie drafts, and why their value should be lower.
Travis Hunter, WR/CB JAX (Round 1, Pick 2) (ADP: 4.19)
The Jaguars are saying that they plan to start Travis Hunter on the offensive side of the ball, but he will play both ways for the Jaguars this year. How do we know Liam Coen and the Jaguars don’t change their mind once they get Hunter on the field? Maybe they see him as the best cornerback on the team and he makes a larger impact on that side of the field. Maybe he doesn’t click right away with Trevor Lawrence? There is so much upside with this pick, but there is also a huge amount of built in risk.
I’m not saying that I wouldn’t take Hunter in the top four. In fact, depending on my team circumstances, I could take him as early as the second pick. In IDP leagues where you can play him as a cornerback, I think he’s even the number one pick over Ashton Jeanty. But, in the years ahead, when we look back at 2025 rookie drafts, Hunter’s path to being an overdrafted dynasty player is clearly there. The gap between his fantasy football ceiling and floor is massive, so you have to be ready to take on that risk when you make this pick.
