Dynasty GAAP Memo: Post-2025 NFL Draft 1QB Rookie Mock
If you have read my work before, you know I write in the form of “accounting memos” and apply accounting and finance themes to dynasty fantasy football. For anyone who has not been exposed, the format is very standard. Each memo will start with the “purpose.” Next, it will supply background and then outline the applicable “guidance,” or accounting literature utilized. Last will be the analysis and conclusion. The goal is to state the issue and quickly address it. My write-ups will follow this same logic. To summarize, welcome to “Good at Analyzing Players” or “GAAP”, a play on “Generally Accepted Accounting Principles” (and yes, my wife did come up with it).
Purpose:
The purpose of this memo is to perform a 2025 mock rookie mock draft for 1QB leagues.
Background:
Welcome to the second annual GAAP 1QB mock draft. The first can be found here (which surprisingly aged pretty okay). Similar to last year, I want to highlight a few concepts that I evaluate prior to drafting any rookies. The overall premise is highlighting what drives a player’s value a year from now. The intent of rookie picks is to pick players who ascend in value. There is an opportunity cost associated with rookie picks. Meaning, you could potentially move a mid-first for a player like DJ Moore or Jayden Waddle if you wanted stability. However, rookie picks ooze with upside and potential. The hope is that you want to spend picks on players who will be worth more than those players in a year with those picks. The precision on that is paper thin, but one of the best ways to accumulate massive value in dynasty.
I also believe people in dynasty circles tend to blindly state “talent over situation.” I honestly am a bit contrarian and try to evaluate three metrics. See the diagram and discussion below:
- Talent: I firmly believe that if you aren’t talented or athletic enough, you’ll never be successful enough in the NFL to be fantasy viable. Players need to have one or more special components to their game (i.e., elite route runner, YAC, 50/50 balls, tackle breaking, etc.). Poster Child: Puka Nacua (fifth-round NFL Pick).
- Draft Capital: The great thing about the NFL Draft is that the selection a player goes shows you exactly what professional scouts think of these players. As a couch GM, I tend to think they know better than I do. Draft capital, unfairly or not, does impact a player’s opportunity heading into their rookie seasons. Poster Child: Hakeem Butler (Dynasty Community loved him and he fell to the fourth round and never produced).
- Opportunity: This is the one that I tend to think is the most underrated. Maybe not if you plan to hold a player for two-three seasons and wait. However, from my experience, some leagues do not even last that long. I want to ensure I see early returns on my rookie picks. Poster Child: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (2023 rookie season).
The opportunity is interesting because a pick today will lose value over the next 12 months if they do not start producing (like JSN two years ago). I wrote previously on a case study that I coined the “Chris Olave Theory.” The premise is that I try to identify rookies who will produce immediately and have the best opportunity. That combination of youth and early production materializes in dynasty gold by mid-season. For the 2023 season, I identified Jordan Addison, and, during his rookie season, he accumulated value early. So, I bought early and sold late in the season. The graph below does a good job illustrating this theory, but if you haven’t checked out that memo, it’s one of my best and I would recommend it.
This theory only works if you have an active league because it is predicated on trading and more active managing.
Now onto the 1QB rookie mock! I will pull from the theories introduced here. However, I will note that I am a bit uncomfortable. The contents of my memos are often “data-driven” with some judgment applied. This exercise will be mostly judgmental with some data, but here we go!
Resources:
- Sleeper: Great interface for looking up historical statistics
- DLF Dynasty Rankings: Best Dynasty Rankings in the Industry
- DLF Average Draft Position (“ADP”) Data: Best resource to gauge current player value. Based upon real Dynasty Startups.
- Investopedia: World’s leading source of financial content on the web.
Analysis:
Welcome to the fun stuff! Below I have laid out my rookie mock draft as of today. I will try to identify any material tier breaks for you. As a reminder, this is a 1QB (not Superflex) and assumed to be a 12-team league (and not TEP).
First Round
Please see the first-round results below:
1. Ashton Jeanty, RB LV
Talent? Check. Opportunity? Check. Draft Capital? Check. Do not overthink it. When a RB is picked in the first ten picks of the NFL draft, you listen. In the last ten years, this includes Bijan Robinson (2023), Saquon Barkley (2018), Leonard Fournette (2017), and Christian McCaffrey (2017), Ezekiel Elliott (2016), and Todd Gurley (2015). Every single one of them has had multiple RB1 finishes in their careers.
—Tier Break—
2. Omarion Hampton, RB LAC
Hampton reminds me of Jonathan Taylor when he was drafted. Due to the presence of Najee Harris, his upside early will be capped. However, we need to remember that Taylor finished as RB6 as a rookie. However, he only had > 50% snaps in eight games during that season. I would assume Hampton follows a similar arc type where talent and draft capital win out over opportunity (which I think will resolve itself very early). Then you have a dynasty RB1 for the next five+ years in the Chargers’ run-happy offense.
3. Tetairoa McMillan, WR CAR (WR)
For me, McMillan is the only WR in this class I would feel confident plugging into my lineup week one. Remember what Diontae Johnson did at the beginning of 2024 in that role for the Panthers (three WR1 finishes in six weeks). Now picture a 6′ 4″ monster with an 81st percentile speed score in that role. This feels like a safe pick to be a dynasty cornerstone for years to come with great talent, draft capital, and opportunity. I would be shocked if there is not a top 24 finish in his future. McMillan has a very high floor.
4. Travis Hunter, WR/CB JAC
Hunter is hard to forecast given his two-way abilities. However, if we knew for sure he was playing WR full-time, I could see a case to add him as the other unicorn in tier 1. At 1.04, the upside is well worth the risk. A year from now, this could be the steal of the draft.
I also love that Brian Thomas Jr will demand safety help. I am also still a Trevor Lawrence believer and want to have pieces in the new Liam Coen offense. Is Hunter his new Chris Godwin? I think so. The talent and draft capital are elite. The only question mark is the opportunity, which is ironically caused by too much talent. Early reports indicate that he will play offense mainly, so this could be a situation of do not overthink it, but I played it safe (typical accountant, am I right?).
If you want floor, I take McMillan at 1.03. If you want ceiling, you smash Hunter.
—Tier Break—
5. Quinshon Judkins, RB CLE
Remember the last time the Browns took a second-round RB? It was Nick Chubb in 2018. After that, Chubb finished as RB16, RB7, RB9, RB10, and RB5 in PPR from 2018 to 2022. Who does Judkins’ advanced analytic profile compare to? Nick Chubb. Only Judkins does not have the injury history.
Take your future RB1 and be happy. Judkins is going to carry the rock a lot for the Browns and be the focal point of that offense given the QB room.
6. TreVeyon Henderson, RB NE
Henderson was actually my favorite of the two Ohio State rushers in this class. I liked his explosiveness and pass-catching ability. However, he goes to the Patriots with a slightly murkier situation given Rhamondre Stevenson being under contract through 2026 (even if he is not the player he was in 2022). Between these two, it really is a pick your poison and I don’t think you can go wrong with either. Do you want lightning or thunder?
For this mock, I went with the younger Judkins (21) over Henderson (22).
7. Emeka Egbuka, WR TB
Egbuka was my pre-draft crush this year. He enters a crowded WR room with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Jalen McMillan. That will likely hinder his production in year one. However, Evans will be 32 and Godwin will be 29 in 2025 and both only have two year contracts. I would expect for Egbuka to explode similar to another Ohio State alumnus (Jaxon Smith-Njigba) who went to a similar situation two years ago behind DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in Seattle. Smith Njigba just finished as WR9 in PPR in his sophomore season. I do not know that Egbuka climbs that high, but 2024 Jordan Addison feels like a likely floor (WR21 in PPR).
—Tier Break—
8. Matthew Golden, WR GB
When this pick was initially selected, I was not a fan. This felt like a duplication of Jayden Reed from a skillset perspective. However, the more I sit with it, the more and more I think I’m higher than most on Golden and sold him short as a prospect.
From an opportunity standpoint, the Packers have collected a gamut of receiving options (Jayden Reed, Tucker Kraft, Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks, etc.). This approach to addressing skill positions rarely gives rise to predictable fantasy viable performances as the players cannibalize each other’s upside.
Then I started to explore Golden’s advanced analytics and skillset. One of the closest players is Chris Olave. Both are slightly undersized, speed receivers with a diverse route tree. Golden is 5’ 11” and 191 lbs, while Olave is 185 lbs and 6’ 0”. Golden’s highest yardage output in college was 987 yards and 9 TDs compared to Olave’s 936 and 13 TDs. Admittedly, Olave did his damage in 12 games vs. 16 for Golden, but Golden did it as a junior vs. Olave as a senior. While I don’t think Golden is quite the polished prospect that Olave was, I believe it is reasonable to project that Golden is 80% of Olave.
As such, if we project 80% of Olave among the Packers’ receiving options, I would likely project him to easily be the top target in that offense (especially given the draft capital spent). Based upon this, I believe that Golden could present a huge value at the 1.08 given his opportunity (even if crowded), draft capital and talent.
9. Kaleb Johnson, RB PIT
Johnson was another player I really liked coming into the draft. I was surprised to see him fall out of the second round and second-guessed myself. Then I remembered that Johnson is a similar player to Najee Harris, just with more juice. What did Harris do in the Steelers offense? He went for four straight 1,000-yard seasons. Johnson might not have the upside that the backs above do, but he presents a “set it and forget it” RB2 floor for the next three-four years.
10. RJ Harvey, RB DEN
It is going to be fun to see how Sean Payton deploys Harvey. He profiles as Payton’s “Joker”, similar to Alvin Kamara, Darren Sproles or Reggie Bush. I would expect him to catch 50+ passes as a rookie given that Javonte Williams caught 52 in that offense in 2024. In PPR scoring, that cements Harvey’s floor. Then you layer on Harvey’s 6.8-yard per carry average and 13.4 yards per reception at UCF in 2024 with 25 TDs and it should be wheels up for Payton’s newest weapon.
The issue is that Harvey is already 24 and is undersized, so he likely does not project as an NFL workhorse, unlike the backs taken above.
11. Tre Harris, WR LAC
Harris profiles as Justin Herbert’s X receiver given his size. I think Harris moves past Quentin Johnston on the depth chart day one just based upon his 4.6% collegiate drop rate alone. If we then combine that with his draft capital, defenses keying in on Ladd McConkey, and having to respect the Chargers’ run game, I think Harris has a very high floor as a rookie.
I had McConkey too low in 2024 and do not want to make that same mistake again. Herbert might be “WR King Maker 2.0” (behind Matthew Stafford).
12. Colston Loveland, TE CHI
During 2024, the Ben Johnson-led Lions offense utilized 2TE sets in approximately 41.9% of their offensive snaps. This usage is considered a strong indication of their offensive philosophy and the role tight ends, particularly Sam LaPorta, play in their game plan. What did Sam LaPorta do in that role as a rookie? Just a casual TE1 overall finish.
I would project that Loveland will play the same role for the crowded Bear offense. In TEP scoring, he likely jumps up a tier.
—Tier Break—
Second Round
Full Disclosure: For rounds two and three, I am still working through my process. This is very preliminary.
Please see the draft results below.
13. Luther Burden, WR CHI
As a Mizzou alumnus, I love Burden. He erupted in his sophomore season in Columbia to the tune of 1,212 yards and 9 TDs in the SEC at just 19 years old. He has elite efficiency metrics driven by his YAC ability and is magic with the balls in his hands. In 2025, his production came way down due to poor QB play and led to his slide to the second round of the NFL draft. He continues to fall in rookie drafts because of his forecasted opportunity. The Bears continued to add to an already exhaustive offensive arsenal. While the talent is very much there, the draft capital was good, but the opportunity is hard to ignore.
At the 2.01, I think you swing for the upside that the talent presents. I also think it is interesting that the Bears have yet to address the RB position this off-season. If Deebo Samuel can take snaps at RB, do we see something similar from Burden?
14. Cam Skattebo, RB NYG
Skattebo slid to the fourth round of the NFL Draft. With that slide comes a large slide in RB hit rates for fantasy viability. The good news? He lands with the NY Giants with only Tyrone Tracy Jr in front of him, who was a fifth-round pick and struggled with fumbles during his rookie season.
Skattebo profiles as the early down back in that offense.
15. Tyler Warren, TE IND
I know. I’m way too low on Warren. I just couldn’t move him up. The issue is not with the immense talent and first-round draft capital. It’s with the Colts offense. I am not going to bet on Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones to support fantasy viable pass catchers. Not to mention that the offense is increasingly crowded with Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, Alec Pierce, and Adonai Mitchell. Additionally, TE usually takes a year or two to adjust to the NFL.
The good news is that Warren is good at football. The bad news is everything else. Similar to Loveland above, in TEP scoring, he likely jumps up a tier.
—Tier Break—
16. Jack Bech, WR LV
The Raiders’ WR depth chart begins and ends with Jakobi Meyers from 2024. Meyers primarily operates from the slot as well. Enter Bech, who could potentially be the Raiders’ WR1 (if you don’t count Brock Bowser) as early as 2025.
Geno Smith has a history of supporting multiple fantasy viable WRs (Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, JSN, etc.). Why couldn’t one be Bech? He clearly had an opportunity and got the draft capital. I will potentially break my “do not draft TCU receivers” rule here given that upside.
17. Jayden Higgins, WR HOU
The Houston Texans clearly wanted to upgrade their WR core during the 2025 draft and took both Iowa State WRs on day two. Higgins is the bigger and more prototypical receiver. He was also an early breakout in college with > 80% speed and burst scores.
Why not bet on a player who is similar to Nico Collins, who was drafted by the same team that developed Collins?
18. Bhayshul Tuten, WR JAC
Tuten is a freak. He has a 100% percentile 40 time, 98th percentile speed score and 97th percentile burst score. Liam Coen gave us Bucky Irving in 2024. Is Tuten his encore?
19. Kyle Williams, WR NE
Anytime the Patriots draft a receiver, I have to fight the urge to throw up in my mouth. Does Williams break the curse? He certainly will be given the opportunity in 2025 given the Patriots’ depth chart at the position. Per film junkies, he is one of the best separators in the 2025 draft class.
20. Cam Ward, QB TEN
Ward goes at the 1.01 in the NFL draft and slides to the 2.08 in the rookie draft. In superflex, he will go much earlier. However, in 1QB, you really need rushing upside to be a difference maker at the position. Ward only ran for 406 yards in his collegiate career.
—Tier Break—
21. Jaylin Noel, WR HOU
Noel is the slightly smaller and faster of the two Iowa State receivers who went to Houston. Every year, we see teams double-dip and the second player succeeds. Mark Andrews did it to Hayden Hurst in 2018 and Tucker Kraft did it to Luke Musgrave in 2023. Does Noel follow in their footsteps?
22. Terrance Ferguson, TE LAR
In 2019, 2021, and 2022, the Rams targeted Tyler Higbee > 85 times. Ferguson and Higbee actually are quite similar when you compare their profiles from an athletic testing and production perspective in college. I would expect Ferguson to demand a similar target volume in Sean McVay’s offense.
23. Mason Taylor, TE NYJ
The Jets do not have a great second receiving option behind Garrett Wilson. With his early second-round draft capital, I would expect that to be Taylor. Additionally, Justin Fields targets tight ends on approximately 25% of his pass attempts thus far in his career.
—Tier Break—
24. Jaxson Dart, QB NYG
At this point in the draft, a round one QB is too much of a value to pass up, even if he does not start in 2025. He will start for the Giants at some point.
Third Round
25. Elijah Arroyo, TE SEA
Arroyo combines size, speed, and athleticism to become a mismatch tight end. Arroyo’s biggest strengths are route running and creating separation. In 2025, Sam Darnold peppered TJ Hockenson after his return from injury.
26. Harold Fannin, TE CLE
I don’t think I have ever seen a 1,555-yard season from a TE in college. That is what Fannin did at Bowling Green. He gives me Tucker Kraft vibes from a couple of years ago due to coming from a smaller school.
—Tier Break—
27. Woody Marks, RB HOU
Marks kicks off the RB handcuff tier. The Texans traded up to take Marks and I always pay attention to when teams move up.
28. Trevor Etienne, RB CAR
Chuba Hubbard’s new backup.
29. Jarquez Hunter, RB LAR
Kyren Williams’ new backup. Sorry Blake Corum truthers.
30. Dylan Sampson, RB CLE
Lightning to Judkins thunder?
31. Jalen Milroe, QB SEA
As I mentioned before, in 1QB leagues, I always target rushing QBs. Sam Darnold’s contract has an out after one year. Milroe could be the long-term QB there.
32. Jalen Royals, WR KC
All of a sudden the Chiefs WR room is very crowded. However, Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown are coming off injured seasons and Travis Kelce is not getting any younger. I also know that Royals is an advanced analytics darling.
—Tier Break—
33. Savion Williams, WR/RB GB
Williams profiles similarly to Cordarrelle Patterson from a skillset and frame perspective. He had multiple points of fantasy viability during his career.
34. Tyler Shough, QB NO
Good value in a potential day one starter at QB for the Saints. This starts with the QB run in this mock.
35. Shedeur Sanders, QB CLE
No idea what happened here during the draft. I have to think it is not related to his talent.
36. Dillon Gabriel, QB CLE
Even if drafted first, is he better than Sanders?
37. Pat Bryant, WR DEN – Bonus Pick
In the third round of the NFL draft, I felt like this was early for Bryant. However, Sean Peyton usually finds a way to use his guys. Plus, the WR depth chart for Denver is bleak.
Conclusion:
Honestly, this is my second time going through this exercise and it makes rookie drafts so much easier to navigate (especially when you factor in tiers). It continues to be a fruitful exercise and would encourage everyone to go through it. When you are going through it, I would always think about the talent, opportunity, and draft capital and let that be your guide.
“The achievements of an organization are the results of the combined effort of each individual.”
- Dynasty GAAP Memo: Post-2025 NFL Draft 1QB Rookie Mock - May 1, 2025
- Dynasty GAAP Memo: Running Back Maturity Approach and Second-Year RBs - February 20, 2025
- Dynasty GAAP Memo: Post-Mortem Rookie Re-Draft - December 12, 2024
