Forgotten Dynasty Youth: Middle Tier

“Forgotten Dynasty Youth” may sound like something of an oxymoron. This is dynasty football, after all, where lack of experience is viewed more as a tick mark in the “pros” column, as it should theoretically allow for additional longevity in the league. And yet the fantasy stock market is occasionally slow to correct itself, potentially yielding values on former blue chip youngsters. In this space, I’ll be seeking to identify such assets.

So how am I defining youth? It’s a bit of a gray area. You can use years in the league, age, or number of total repetitions, with the latter particularly important at the running back position. But because youthful assets, particularly those selected early in the NFL Draft, tend to maintain dynasty staying power, a higher ADP doesn’t mean they’re not “forgotten.” As such any single metric may not be appropriate here. But one way or another, these will be guys who were once highly esteemed, and who I think may have since fallen a bit off the radar.

Where there will be structure is in the tiers, which will be threefold and as follows:

• Top Tier: ADP < 84.0 (first seven rounds of a 12-team startup draft)
• Middle Tier: ADP > 84.1 and < 168.0 (rounds eight through 14 in a startup draft)
• Bottom Tier: ADP > 168.1 (the rest)

I’ll be looking at four players per tier. Let’s continue with the Middle Tier!

Dalton Kincaid, TE BUF

ADP: 96.0

Age: 25 years

Often something seems so clear, I like to use the phrase “fantasy football doesn’t have to be hard.” Prior to the 2024 NFL season, one of the most blatantly obvious certainties was that Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid was heading towards a second-year breakout, thereby cementing his status as a top-three positional dynasty option. As we now know, things went sideways early and never corrected themselves.

*Record scratch*. *Freeze frame*. “Yep, that’s me. You’re probably wondering how I got here.”

After concluding his rookie season as the PPR TE11, expectations for Kincaid would have been high even in a vacuum. But following the trade of veteran target hog Stefon Diggs, along with the team doing little to backfill him other than drafting Keon Coleman in the early second round of the NFL Draft, the stars appeared to be aligning for a true breakout. Unfortunately what followed was a fantasy nightmare, with Kincaid missing four contests and finishing way back of the pack as the PPR TE30. An ADP that was within the top 50 picks prior to the season is now barely in the top 100, with Kincaid going off the board as the dynasty TE10.

At the end of the day, Kincaid was simply unproductive, which must stand as the headline. But there may be a pair of mitigating factors. Firstly, teammate and positional colleague Dawson Knox made it known to the haters that Kincaid played the end of the season with a torn PCL. This likely helps explain why his final three games plus playoffs included only one 50+ yard effort, and four contests with 24 or fewer yards. It doesn’t absolve his early-season woes, but at least adds a bit of context.

Secondly and perhaps more importantly, while he remained an extremely efficient quarterback, Josh Allen didn’t provide the same type of fantasy banquet to his pass catchers as he has in years prior. After affording a weekly 58.2 PPR points through the air in 2023, Allen’s output dipped to 49.9 PPR points last season. While that doesn’t seem like much, it equates to 141.3 PPR points over the course of the full season, a total that in and of itself would have been the PPR TE15. Not massive, but not trifling either.

I personally have a hard time believing Kincaid could be had for an early second-round pick, but anything is possible during the height of rookie fever. Given the upside Kincaid flashed as a rookie, and the relatively weaker draft class, this would be an easy deal for me. Forward-thinking owners with appropriate draft capital and willing trade partners could take Tyler Warren at the end of the first round, and snag Kincaid via trade, potentially remaking their tight end rooms in the process.

Tyjae Spears, RB TEN

ADP: 118.0

Age: 23 years

Following a rookie season where Spears managed to sequester 152 touches from Titans stalwart and current Raven Derrick Henry, expectations going into 2024 were high for Spears. After all, this was a player who averaged 4.5 YPC and 7.4 YPR, even chipping in 21 yards per kickoff return on 13 attempts. Tennessee’s surprise signing of Tony Pollard certainly tempered enthusiasm, but given Pollard’s inefficiency when shouldering the full load, it wasn’t unreasonable to anticipate a 1a/1b type of split.

Judging by Spears’ lost value, you can guess how it went. Though he did slightly increase his touches per game, he missed five contests due to injury and only had three contests with double-digit carries. His rushing numbers also dipped below the Mendoza line at 3.7 YPC, though he at least managed to double his scores.

But was it really as bad as it appears on the surface?

Advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Reference.

As shown above, Spears was just fine after contact (YAC/Att), mirroring his rookie-year dynamic, and placing him in the upper tier of players with at least a reasonable amount of carries. He performed similarly in the receiving game (YAC/R), and also broke tackles at an exceptional rate both on the ground and through the air. But the biggest change is that he was hit earlier than he was as a rookie, down from 2.4 yards before contact per attempt (YBC/Att) to 1.5. This is assuredly not all on the offensive line, but with all other numbers being similar for Spears it does beg the question.

Continuing, the sophomore was again a maven in the passing game, corralling 30 of 35 targets. He was also once again explosive as a returner, averaging 28.3 yards on seven kickoff returns. This does not read like an inefficient ball carrier.

Pollard is a near lock to be back in 2025, though the team does have an out prior to the 2026 season. And while he acquitted himself well last season, his numbers as a bell-cow ball carrier are closer to replacement level than stardom. Given this, and given Spears clearly didn’t become a bad player, I’m a buyer at RB33 (by ADP) prices.

Tank Bigsby, RB JAC

ADP: 143.5

Age: 23 years

For those who may have forgotten, Bigsby was the fantasy equal to and better runner than backfield mate Travis Etienne last season.

Even with the caveat that both players missed a couple of games and parts of others, ultimately Bigsby was trusted with 18 additional carries, which he turned into over 200 more yards than Etienne by virtue of averaging 0.9 YPC more. He also trumped him in big plays and first downs, and had five additional scores. As noted above, on the ground Bigsby was the superior option to 2023’s PPR RB3.

Receptions were a different story, as Bigsby was a non-factor. This isn’t terribly surprising – while the former Auburn Tiger wasn’t completely useless in the passing game during his time in college, he only managed to corral 62 passes across three seasons. And while Etienne’s 39-254-0 (52 targets) was barely passable, the fact is he was entrusted to do the work.

Perhaps that changes in 2025, given the entrance of new head coach Liam Coen. Even if it doesn’t, Etienne becomes a free agent in 2026, while Bigsby still has one more year on his rookie contract. With the former first-round pick’s 2023 standing as the touchdown-fueled outlier, particularly given his second straight season under 4.0 YPC, perhaps the Jaguars will want to see what they have in the rising third-year player in Bigsby. As a low-end RB4 in the dynasty ADP, I’d be willing to ask the question as to who will be leading Jacksonville’s backfield this year.

Romeo Doubs, WR GB

ADP: 157.5

Age: 24 years

Anyone who has read my work over the past few years, right down to his post-draft rookie profile, knows I’m riding shotgun on the Doubs bandwagon. Rightly or wrongly I believe he’s the most talented receiver on the roster, and seems to be the player quarterback Jordan Love looks to when he needs a big play.

But yeah, these numbers (and particularly those colors) over the past two seasons are problematic. High-end receivers need more than 10% of their contests to result in WR1 weeks, and simply cannot have more than half their weeks being in the WR4+ realm. But such is life in a loaded and diverse Packers collection of pass catchers, with no player in 2024 receiving over 80 targets and the top receiver (Jayden Reed) finishing as the PPR WR29.

Still, Doubs offers some projectability. Despite missing four contests, he was third on the team in targets, and thus first in weekly market share. This isn’t surprising, as he plays more snaps than any of the team’s other receivers.

Snap data courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

Continuing, the 2024 Packers were not an aerial sight to behold. On the year, the team had 526 rushing attempts as compared to 479 passes. When you finish 11-6 I suppose it’s hard to complain too much, but it was the Josh Jacobs show in the frozen tundra, with the team’s receivers taking on a diminished status.

So how is any of this helpful moving forward?

For starters, Christian Watson appears likely to miss most of the 2025 campaign, or at the least play well short of full health. His ostensible replacement, Dontayvion Wicks, certainly received targets – but only catching half of them despite averaging a mere 10.6 YPR, it’s hard to say he “earned” them. This could mean big things for Doubs, Reed and tight end Tucker Kraft, particularly if Love receives his 2023 volume.

No, he’ll probably never be a perennial WR1 or perhaps even a highly consistent WR2. But as the dynasty WR68, he doesn’t have to be to outplay his current value. Whether it’s in 2025, or in another locale when his contract is up in 2026, I’m a believer in the untapped upside. For a random mid-round rookie draft pick, shut up and take my money!

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