Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: De’Von Achane vs the 1.02 and Breece Hall vs Garrett Wilson
Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag, the preeminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land.
For those who are fans of off-season drama, 2025 is the year for you! Christian Kirk to the Texans, Geno Smith to the Raiders, and Deebo Samuel to the Commanders. Davante Adams, Evan Engram, and Tyler Lockett all released. DK Metcalf traded to Pittsburgh (we get it Seattle, you were bored), and quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers is still in play. Myles Garrett is now the highest-paid non-quarterback in the NFL, staying in Cleveland after demanding a trade to a contender. Lots going on, with undoubtedly more to come!
As a reminder, there are multiple ways to pose your burning questions! I’ll be soliciting weekly feedback via X/Twitter (look for a new pinned tweet each Monday), and you can also reach out using our Discord channel, or the old-fashioned way (via our online webform).
Let’s get to it!
From Discord…
Take an Achan-ce on De’Von
Which side do you prefer for a contending team in a 12-team, 1QB PPR league – De’Von Achane or rookie pick 1.02?
I won’t bury the lede on this one, I’m with the DLF Trade Analyzer. Through his first two seasons in the league, Achane has been an extremely explosive player, with 23 of his aggregate 306 attempts (7.5%) going for at least 15 yards. It’s true he took a sizable step back on a per-play basis when his carries doubled in 2024, but he still went for 4.5 YPC, and for his career he averages 5.6 YPC.
Advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
The trends aren’t terribly surprising. When it comes to lightly-used, efficient players we like to project volume upon them while assuming (hoping?) they maintain their proficiency – but more often than not that doesn’t wind up being the case, and there’s a reason why NFL coaching staffs give players a certain workload. Especially when it comes to smaller players like Achane (5’9”, 188 pounds), utilization is a tightrope – you’d like to get them on the field, but they’re simply not going to hold up to the pounding of a massive workload. We also don’t want them to gain weight in order to better protect their bodies as speed and explosion will be sacrificed.
Still – as shown above, the advanced numbers remained favorable! Achane still averaged 2.1 yards after contact per attempt (YAC/Att), and 8.5 yards after contact per reception (YAC/R). Most importantly he made massive strides as a receiver, nearly tripling his reception total while slightly improving his yards per reception and actually securing a larger proportion of his targets despite increasing them by 50. If we’re holding Achane to the standard he set for himself in his rookie season, then it’s a valid conversation – but compared to the rest of the league his credentials are impeccable, as validated by his finish as the PPR RB5.
It’s possible the biggest change on the negative side of the ledger actually had nothing to do with Achane! After playing well in 2023, the Dolphins offensive line (OL) was one of the worst in the league last season, which is reflected in his yards before contact (YBC) getting halved from 4.7 yards to 2.4 yards. Yes, some of that onus is on Achane, and notably his broken tackle rate took a nosedive in 2024 – but multiple independent reviewers ranked the Miami OL as a bottom 6-8 group. With 12 additional sacks allowed and an aggregate decrease in 1.1 YPC, the numbers back this up.
Given this, it’s fair to wonder if 2024 may effectively function as Achane’s floor moving forward. The scoring plays should be repeatable (12 on 290 opportunities; 4.1%), and as noted above there is room for improvement in his per-play efforts. The biggest question mark is whether he can maintain his 14.7% target share, but unless the Dolphins make a splashy addition this seems replicable as well. For the totality of these reasons, Achane should be viewed as a top-five dynasty running back.
The elephant in the room resides on the other side of the deal. Barring a monumental lapse in judgement, Boise State ball carrier Ashton Jeanty is going to be the first pick in the rookie draft. But while there is solid depth in this class, Jeanty is the unicorn – Omarion Hampton is in another tier, and the hill turns into something of a cliff after him, as shown below.
I mention all this because my belief is if the trade is made, the contending team gets worse at running back. Perhaps Tetairoa McMillan can be the next player in the line of rookie receiver studs, but that’s the only way I see a contender benefiting in 2025. Given this, unless a veteran sweetener is thrown in, I’m unfazed by the value of the pick.
All for Hall?
Which side of the deal do you prefer for a contending team in a 12-team, 1QB PPR league – Breece Hall, Khalil Shakir, and picks 1.04 and 2.04, or Garrett Wilson, Michael Pittman, and picks 1.07 and 3.07?
If I didn’t know any better, I’d say someone used the DLF Trade Analyzer to put this proposed deal together!
Not surprisingly, the A-listers in this deal are the pair of Jets. And though Wilson’s trade value appears to be a bit higher, it’s actually been Hall who’s been better on a per-game basis in the pair’s three years in the league thus far.
Hall stats courtesy of FFToday.
Wilson stats courtesy of FFToday.
Wilson has been negatively impacted by the team’s imploding quarterback play, including the disappointing Aaron Rodgers tenure and calamitous Zack Wilson experience, not to mention players like Mike White, Joe Flacco, Trevor Siemian, and Tim Boyle receiving significant run. It’s a poor craftsman who blames his tools, but Wilson can’t throw the ball to himself. Tyrod Taylor, or whoever else New York brings in this off-season, may represent the best signal caller Wilson has played with since his collegiate days.
Given this, it’s fair to assert Wilson could conceivably close the gap with Hall. But it’s equally fair to assert that upgraded play under center will function as the metaphorical rising tide that lifts all boats. After all, if an opposing defense doesn’t have to worry about an offense’s passing game, they can key in on one of the only functional offensive players in Hall. Even given this, Hall’s efficiency has been fine, and he’s been able to do some honest in work in the passing game as well.
Everything else aside, I’d prefer Hall over Wilson. Pass-catching running backs provide a safe floor and high ceiling as a position largely devoid of certainty. While this opinion is subjective and probably runs contrary to the popular dynasty opinion that receivers are safer investments, I’d prefer this type of upper echelon ball carrier over his receiver counterpart – given this, the onus is on the remaining pieces in the deal to convince me otherwise.
The picks on the Hall side are obviously better, which isn’t at all up for debate. The question though is how do you feel about the top four players in the rookie draft? Somewhat oddly, I actually believe there are three separate tiers in these picks. Jeanty is by himself, followed by McMillan. Hampton and receiver Luther Burden are fairly similar to me, followed by yet another tier break. This is significant to me, as it’s my (again subjective) belief that 1.04 is demonstrably better than 1.07, particularly if Emeka Egbuka is unavailable (I’d have him at 1.05 or 1.06). And while I don’t put much stock in non-first round picks, pick 2.04 is much likelier to result in a fantasy flyer than pick 3.07.
Thus far, in my opinion, the Hall side is batting 1.000. As such it’s up to Colts receiver Pittman to even the odds.
Since entering the league, the Indy veteran has been a solid if perhaps unspectacular player. Half of the time he was providing you with enough points to help your lineup, though 11.54% within the WR1 tier isn’t week-altering. He bottomed out last season as the PPR WR41, largely fueled by the absolute dreck under center on the Colts (which appears to be a recurring trend in the answer to this question).
Excluding a quasi-redshirt rookie year, we can see that Pittman has been decidedly better when paired with quarterbacks other than the scattershot Anthony Richardson. This could pose a problem for 2025, as though there will be competition involved, Richardson remains the leader in the clubhouse. As Pittman will turn 28 in October, this is unideal as it has the potential to ruin one of his remaining prime years.
My thoughts on Pittman mirror the back and forth between Danny and Augie in Role Models, regarding soft drink preference.
Danny: “Do you like Coca-Cola?”
Augie: “I like the idea of it more than I actually like it.”
If Pittman could be who I know he’s capable of being on a weekly and yearly basis, then order me a Coca-Cola! But he’s not a player who’s shown an ability to transcend poor circumstances, and now faces additional competition from the emerging Josh Downs (and potentially Adonai Mitchell if he’s able to rebound). Though the Trade Analyzer disagrees, I’m not fully convinced he’s a significantly better asset than Shakir.
If you’re not getting elite play, then a floor is important. And with two thirds of his contests resulting in WR3-level or better efforts last season, that’s what Shakir did. Double digits in 11 of 15 contests will keep you in every week, and the occasional splash efforts enhance your odds. In a vacuum I think I’d still prefer Pittman, but it’s a lot closer in my mind.
The Bills’ front office agrees, bestowing a four-year, $53 million contract ($31.8 million guaranteed) on him this off-season, locking up the 25-year-old through the majority of his prime years. This pair him with the fantasy-friendliest quarterback in the league in Josh Allen, where he seems likely to continue to function as one of the team’s top targets. The ceiling is high, and to me he’s more than just a throw-in here.
You’ve probably already figured out which way I’m leaning here. Hall, Burden, and Shakir could very well represent three 2025 starters, as compared to the two (1.5?) on the Wilson and Pittman side. I’m also personally fairly bullish on each asset on the Hall side, making it easy for me here. Rational minds may differ and there are counters to each point I’ve proposed, and the principals in the proposed deal will have to consider those too. But as noted in the question’s subheading, I’d be giving it all for Hall.
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