Off-Season Mock Drafts: Have We Learned Anything?
I’ve been writing this series for three years, and if my memory serves me correctly, the initial rookie drafts from February before the combine were more accurate than the mocks following the combine and NFL Draft. I may not be correct, but that is how I believe things went. I’m going to look back at the last two seasons and see if my recollection is accurate. I’ll compare the early mocks to the post-combine and post-draft mocks and see when the dynasty community was most accurate. We can use this insight and look at this year’s mocks and ADP to hopefully pinpoint which players we might be wrong about and will fall through the cracks.
The 2023 Class
The first rookie mock I wrote about back in February of 2023 was a superflex draft. Two years later, looking at the first round of that mock, we see some good and not-so-good picks.
As we all know, there are busts and misses in every fantasy draft, and we aren’t looking at these old articles to find busts; we want to see if we were better at identifying the better players early or late in the process.
Looking back at this first round, yes, Sean Tucker was grossly overdrafted, but he primarily fell due to health concerns that came up later, so we get a free pass on him. Overall, I would say that we did pretty well collectively, and for the most part, that seemed to carry through into rounds two and three.
We will always see more misses as we get later in drafts, but there are only a few egregious picks here, considering what we knew at the time. If anything, more values were found in the early drafts – which is to be expected. I recall being higher than most on Michael Wilson and Jayden Reed, and I was thrilled they were there in the late third.
I felt the same way about players who ended up in the fourth round, too. Nobody was onto Puka Nacua or Tank Dell yet. Chase Brown‘s star didn’t start rising until after the combine, and that was true for Jonathan Mingo, too, if memory serves me correctly. But, all things considered, at first glance, I think we did well given what we knew at the time.
We took another look at the 2023 class following the combine on April 8, 2023, following our rapid reaction to the combine last March. This was the ADP in March after the combine data was getting settled into everyone’s heads:
Did the combined results alter our perception much? Did we use it to confirm our previous biases? Did we stick to what we thought without the combine info? Truth be told, the needle didn’t move too much. I went into this thinking we would see at least a few wild swings in ADP, but that has proven not to be the case. Now, let’s see what happens when the dynasty community gets input from the NFL. Once we know what real football teams think of the incoming class, we should see some changes, right?
Looking at the final superflex rookie ADP from May of 2023, we can see the final “results” from the pre-draft process. We saw a few moves that looked “right” in hindsight, but nearly all of the moves were based on draft capital. The players selected earlier than we thought climbed up the board, and those who fell in the draft fell down the board.
I’m looking forward to see what happened with the 2024 class because right now, it looks like the best strategy is to make your initial rankings ahead of the combine; if someone performs historically bad at the combine, bump them down; otherwise, stick to your guns until you factor in NFL draft capital- which was not at all what I thought before I started writing.
The 2024 Class
The first single quarterback rookie mock of the off-season from February last year saw some interesting picks, as did the first superflex rookie mock from 2024.
At first glance, rounds one and two don’t look too bad. Troy Franklin at 1.07, yipes! When he got on the field, Braelon Allen looked the part as a rookie; he just landed behind a locked-in bona fide starting RB1 in New York. We initially nailed Bucky Irving, who I think fell after his combine performance (spoiler alert), and obviously, Malachi Corley was an early miss at 2.12.
Round three looks terrible in hindsight (yes, I know one season isn’t the whole story for dynasty purposes). Round four had several of my early favorites, so for selfish reasons, I wish this held, as I would have even more Jaylen Wright, Ray Davis, Ricky Pearsall, and Ben Sinnott than I already do. I know there were some significant moves in the final group, but I don’t recall if it came following the combine or draft, so let’s find out.
I looked at player movement in ADP after the 2024 combine. We saw Jaylen Wright and MarShawn Lloyd as the biggest risers, with Bucky Irving, Braelon Allen, and Dillon Johnson as the biggest fallers following the combine. Aside from Johnson falling, we were probably wrong more than we were right regarding running backs. At receiver, notable risers were Adonai Mitchell, Jermaine Burton, Javon Baker, Brendan Rice, and Ricky Pearsall. So, it looks like we got more wrong than right one year in. That also held true for the fallers, with Keon Coleman, Jalen McMillan, and Xavier Legette among the notable fallers. We absolutely saw an overreaction to the combine last year, and it was typically in the wrong direction.
So, we whiffed on players using their combine performances as a gauge. We tracked player movement vs other similarly-tiered players as we headed into the NFL preseason following the draft. We can also look at the final rookie ADP from last May as another tool to see how we did.
Bo Nix and Michael Penix both saw a bump following the draft after they were selected within the first 12 picks, as did JJ McCarthy, but not nearly as much as the previous two. At running back, Tyrone Tracy and Kimani Vidal both saw a bump. It proved correct in the case of Tracey but not so much for Vidal. Isaac Guerendo also saw a little increase as well, and he looked good when called into service.
When we get into receivers, we saw Xavier Worthy, Ladd McConkey, and the aforementioned Burton, Polk, and Pearsall slide up in drafts, with Troy Franklin, Luke McCaffrey, Devontez Walker, and Jamari Thrash all sliding in ADP by the time June rolled around. While not 100% accurate, these moves, again, seem to reflect draft capital and, to a lesser extent, specific team landing spots. More importantly, draft capital appears to be the more meaningful indicator of fantasy success when compared to combine performances.
The 2025 Class
If what we saw in the previous two classes, these initial mock draft results might be the best rookie rankings until the NFL draft is complete. We might be wise to ignore any of the noise generated by the combine – especially positive results – while bumping down people who unexpectedly test poorly.
I shared the first single QB mock of the 2025 rookie class. Looking at the results from the first two rounds, round one looks solid, minus the quarterback selection. Round two, however, raises some red flags. Barring a wild jump on draft day, Ollie Gordon, Will Howard, and Kyle Monangai are never going in the top 24 of a single-QB draft again. But take a good look at the other names here; if they get respectable draft capital, they will stay in this realm and likely climb a bit.
As we get to the back half of the mock, values emerge, as always, and a couple of combine performances might bump up a few players in the post-combine mocks.
I suspect a pair of Cyclones, Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins, will both be off the board before round three. Tez Johnson can’t weigh 154 pounds, run a 4.51 40-yard dash, and succeed in the NFL – despite his outstanding 6.65 three-cone time. Bhayshul Tuten will probably jump two full rounds after his showing at the combine.
Comparing the single quarterback draft with the first superflex rookie mock from early February, let’s see if we saw any significant differences (besides the obvious QB bump).
The most significant difference that jumps off the page is Matthew Golden falling to 2.06, which is never going to happen in any format. I’ve been talking about draft capital quite a bit, and there are rumors circulating that Golden might be the first receiver taken in the NFL draft. If that happens, he’s likely to jump over the trio of Tetairoa McMillan, Luther Burden, and Emeka Egbuka who seem locked in at 1-2-3.
We see several of the same names in round three who we saw in single QB that will not be here two months from now. If you’re in a league that drafts early, jump on these guys while their prices are depressed.
What Can We Take Away From This?
I intentionally didn’t look at post-combine mocks yet, as I knew I wanted to write this article looking at past classes and see if the post-combine changes meant anything. And I think I found the answer – no, not really. At least as far as recent history is concerned, the only thing to take away from the combine is that when a player performs poorly, it’s typically a red flag and only a few outliers have ever overcome those performances. The initial rookie ADP combined with draft capital seems like the main factor that best predicts success, while the combine is just noise.
- Off-Season Mock Drafts: 1 QB Rookie Draft (Last Look Ahead) - April 19, 2025
- Off-Season Mock Drafts: NFL Mock Draft Compilation, Part Two - April 12, 2025
- Off-Season Mock Drafts: Rookie Movers - April 5, 2025
I’ve been writing this series for three years, and if my memory serves me correctly, the initial rookie drafts from February before the combine were more accurate than the mocks following the combine and NFL Draft. I may not be correct, but that is how I believe things went. I’m going to look back at the last two seasons and see if my recollection is accurate. I’ll compare the early mocks to the post-combine and post-draft mocks and see when the dynasty community was most accurate. We can use this insight and look at this year’s mocks and ADP to hopefully pinpoint which players we might be wrong about and will fall through the cracks.
The 2023 Class
The first rookie mock I wrote about back in February of 2023 was a superflex draft. Two years later, looking at the first round of that mock, we see some good and not-so-good picks.
As we all know, there are busts and misses in every fantasy draft, and we aren’t looking at these old articles to find busts; we want to see if we were better at identifying the better players early or late in the process.
Looking back at this first round, yes, Sean Tucker was grossly overdrafted, but he primarily fell due to health concerns that came up later, so we get a free pass on him. Overall, I would say that we did pretty well collectively, and for the most part, that seemed to carry through into rounds two and three.
We will always see more misses as we get later in drafts, but there are only a few egregious picks here, considering what we knew at the time. If anything, more values were found in the early drafts – which is to be expected. I recall being higher than most on Michael Wilson and Jayden Reed, and I was thrilled they were there in the late third.
I felt the same way about players who ended up in the fourth round, too. Nobody was onto Puka Nacua or Tank Dell yet. Chase Brown‘s star didn’t start rising until after the combine, and that was true for Jonathan Mingo, too, if memory serves me correctly. But, all things considered, at first glance, I think we did well given what we knew at the time.
We took another look at the 2023 class following the combine on April 8, 2023, following our rapid reaction to the combine last March. This was the ADP in March after the combine data was getting settled into everyone’s heads:
Did the combined results alter our perception much? Did we use it to confirm our previous biases? Did we stick to what we thought without the combine info? Truth be told, the needle didn’t move too much. I went into this thinking we would see at least a few wild swings in ADP, but that has proven not to be the case. Now, let’s see what happens when the dynasty community gets input from the NFL. Once we know what real football teams think of the incoming class, we should see some changes, right?
Looking at the final superflex rookie ADP from May of 2023, we can see the final “results” from the pre-draft process. We saw a few moves that looked “right” in hindsight, but nearly all of the moves were based on draft capital. The players selected earlier than we thought climbed up the board, and those who fell in the draft fell down the board.
I’m looking forward to see what happened with the 2024 class because right now, it looks like the best strategy is to make your initial rankings ahead of the combine; if someone performs historically bad at the combine, bump them down; otherwise, stick to your guns until you factor in NFL draft capital- which was not at all what I thought before I started writing.
The 2024 Class
The first single quarterback rookie mock of the off-season from February last year saw some interesting picks, as did the first superflex rookie mock from 2024.
At first glance, rounds one and two don’t look too bad. Troy Franklin at 1.07, yipes! When he got on the field, Braelon Allen looked the part as a rookie; he just landed behind a locked-in bona fide starting RB1 in New York. We initially nailed Bucky Irving, who I think fell after his combine performance (spoiler alert), and obviously, Malachi Corley was an early miss at 2.12.
Round three looks terrible in hindsight (yes, I know one season isn’t the whole story for dynasty purposes). Round four had several of my early favorites, so for selfish reasons, I wish this held, as I would have even more Jaylen Wright, Ray Davis, Ricky Pearsall, and Ben Sinnott than I already do. I know there were some significant moves in the final group, but I don’t recall if it came following the combine or draft, so let’s find out.
I looked at player movement in ADP after the 2024 combine. We saw Jaylen Wright and MarShawn Lloyd as the biggest risers, with Bucky Irving, Braelon Allen, and Dillon Johnson as the biggest fallers following the combine. Aside from Johnson falling, we were probably wrong more than we were right regarding running backs. At receiver, notable risers were Adonai Mitchell, Jermaine Burton, Javon Baker, Brendan Rice, and Ricky Pearsall. So, it looks like we got more wrong than right one year in. That also held true for the fallers, with Keon Coleman, Jalen McMillan, and Xavier Legette among the notable fallers. We absolutely saw an overreaction to the combine last year, and it was typically in the wrong direction.
So, we whiffed on players using their combine performances as a gauge. We tracked player movement vs other similarly-tiered players as we headed into the NFL preseason following the draft. We can also look at the final rookie ADP from last May as another tool to see how we did.
Bo Nix and Michael Penix both saw a bump following the draft after they were selected within the first 12 picks, as did JJ McCarthy, but not nearly as much as the previous two. At running back, Tyrone Tracy and Kimani Vidal both saw a bump. It proved correct in the case of Tracey but not so much for Vidal. Isaac Guerendo also saw a little increase as well, and he looked good when called into service.
When we get into receivers, we saw Xavier Worthy, Ladd McConkey, and the aforementioned Burton, Polk, and Pearsall slide up in drafts, with Troy Franklin, Luke McCaffrey, Devontez Walker, and Jamari Thrash all sliding in ADP by the time June rolled around. While not 100% accurate, these moves, again, seem to reflect draft capital and, to a lesser extent, specific team landing spots. More importantly, draft capital appears to be the more meaningful indicator of fantasy success when compared to combine performances.
The 2025 Class
If what we saw in the previous two classes, these initial mock draft results might be the best rookie rankings until the NFL draft is complete. We might be wise to ignore any of the noise generated by the combine – especially positive results – while bumping down people who unexpectedly test poorly.
I shared the first single QB mock of the 2025 rookie class. Looking at the results from the first two rounds, round one looks solid, minus the quarterback selection. Round two, however, raises some red flags. Barring a wild jump on draft day, Ollie Gordon, Will Howard, and Kyle Monangai are never going in the top 24 of a single-QB draft again. But take a good look at the other names here; if they get respectable draft capital, they will stay in this realm and likely climb a bit.
As we get to the back half of the mock, values emerge, as always, and a couple of combine performances might bump up a few players in the post-combine mocks.
I suspect a pair of Cyclones, Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins, will both be off the board before round three. Tez Johnson can’t weigh 154 pounds, run a 4.51 40-yard dash, and succeed in the NFL – despite his outstanding 6.65 three-cone time. Bhayshul Tuten will probably jump two full rounds after his showing at the combine.
Comparing the single quarterback draft with the first superflex rookie mock from early February, let’s see if we saw any significant differences (besides the obvious QB bump).
The most significant difference that jumps off the page is Matthew Golden falling to 2.06, which is never going to happen in any format. I’ve been talking about draft capital quite a bit, and there are rumors circulating that Golden might be the first receiver taken in the NFL draft. If that happens, he’s likely to jump over the trio of Tetairoa McMillan, Luther Burden, and Emeka Egbuka who seem locked in at 1-2-3.
We see several of the same names in round three who we saw in single QB that will not be here two months from now. If you’re in a league that drafts early, jump on these guys while their prices are depressed.
What Can We Take Away From This?
I intentionally didn’t look at post-combine mocks yet, as I knew I wanted to write this article looking at past classes and see if the post-combine changes meant anything. And I think I found the answer – no, not really. At least as far as recent history is concerned, the only thing to take away from the combine is that when a player performs poorly, it’s typically a red flag and only a few outliers have ever overcome those performances. The initial rookie ADP combined with draft capital seems like the main factor that best predicts success, while the combine is just noise.
- Off-Season Mock Drafts: 1 QB Rookie Draft (Last Look Ahead) - April 19, 2025
- Off-Season Mock Drafts: NFL Mock Draft Compilation, Part Two - April 12, 2025
- Off-Season Mock Drafts: Rookie Movers - April 5, 2025
