Dynasty Perspective Through Advanced Metrics: Tight Ends
Fantasy football is a game decided by numbers. In this four-part series, I’ll be reviewing advanced player metrics via Player Profiler from the 2024 season, to understand the numbers behind the data, outline a contextual story and provide actionable advice in dynasty.
The fourth and final article in the series will focus on tight end, analyzing metrics to give a true reflection of performance and expectations moving forward. The previous article on wide receivers can be found here.
Sam LaPorta, TE DET
- Target Share: TE14
- Target Rate: TE26
- Red Zone Targets: TE5
- Total Touchdowns: TE4
- Yards Per Route Run: TE17
- Target Separation: TE12
- Fantasy Points Per Route: TE18
- Expected Fantasy Points Per Game: TE11
- Fantasy Points Per Game: TE8
Rewind back to late 2023, when LaPorta was the clear TE1 in dynasty and the market was convinced he was an elite tight end for years to come. He is now valued around the TE3 after a disappointing fantasy season, in line with his metrics. In terms of being able to command targets from the Lions’ offense overall or solely on the snaps LaPorta was running an active receiving route, he was below expectations for a highly-rated dynasty asset. LaPorta’s TE8 finish in fantasy points per game (FPPG) was driven by excellent usage in the red zone and the respective touchdowns achieved in an excellent offense.
In 2024, LaPorta was unable to produce strong metrics per receiving route, with below average yards per route run and fantasy points per route – highlighting the need for increased opportunity to generate solid fantasy production. Also, LaPorta’s lack of separation skills place reliance on strong accurate quarterback play and offensive scheming to become a factor in fantasy. Based on the situation, opportunity and volume last season, the expected fantasy points per game was TE11 for LaPorta, highlighting his TE8 finish was above what a typical outcome would be based on the overall environment.
Verdict
LaPorta is a player considered the consensus TE3 and has seen his dynasty value rise to the end of round three/early round four in dynasty startups. While the TE3 rank is relatively fair, the actual price is too steep for me. LaPorta has proven to be an elite touchdown scorer, making the most of his role in an efficient and high-powered offense. With the departure of offensive guru Ben Johnson, I consider LaPorta’s profile to hold more risk relative to high cost of acquisition. LaPorta is an easy pivot for the 2025 1.05 to 1.06 rookie draft pick, where you can build upon cornerstone assets at quarterback or wide receiver. In this scenario, look to target a cheaper tight end who can produce similar numbers to LaPorta in the short-term, like David Njoku.
Sam LaPorta – DLF ADP History.
Dalton Kincaid, TE BUF
- Targets: TE15
- Snap Share: TE32
- Red Zone Targets: TE16
- Catchable Target Rate: TE36
- Receptions: TE26
- Receiving Yards: TE28
- Total Touchdowns: TE25
- Target Separation: TE33
- Fantasy Points Per Game: TE18
So I’ll start off with the positives in Kincaid’s metrics profile. Moving on… 2024 was a poor season for Kincaid from a metrics perspective, although before breaking it down it is worth noting he missed four games through injury, where his overall numbers suffered as a consequence. The highlights of his profile were fair outputs in overall targets and red zone targets, showing there was opportunity available to him and in key areas of the field. Despite this, Kincaid’s efficiency was poor, turning the TE15 number in targets into the TE26 output in receptions and TE28 numbers in receiving yards. Also, the conversion of red zone opportunities was poor, as the TE25 in total touchdowns.
One of the major concerns in Kincaid’s metrics profile is the lack of playing time, finishing as the TE32 in snap share. Whilst the argument could be made that more playing time would inflate all numbers, think logically, Kincaid wasn’t on the field much despite the Bills struggling to find a standout receiver in the passing game. Kincaid’s connection with newly crowned league most valuable player (MVP) Josh Allen was weak, with his catchable target rate way down at low TE3 numbers. Although Kincaid’s usage was sporadic, his target separation was disappointing and surely a factor into a below average TE18 finish in FPPG.
Verdict
Playing on an offense which has transformed to run-heavy and invested highly in young wide receivers Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir in the last year, Kincaid’s situation is far from ideal. The market value in the TE6-9 range excluding incoming rookies is gross, a poor place to find a long-term stud at the position. Kincaid is a player I’m actively avoiding until more confidence and consistency are displayed. Making a move away from Kincaid is simple, I think you have to tier up or down as the sideways options at the position leave little to be desired.
George Kittle, TE SF
- Targets: TE7
- Routes Run: TE17
- Red Zone Targets: TE2
- Receptions: TE5
- Receiving Yards: TE3
- Yards After Catch: TE2
- Yards Per Route Run: TE1
- Yards Per Team Pass Attempt: TE1
- Fantasy Points Per Game: TE1
Kittle’s 2024 season was a masterclass in efficiency, finishing as the TE1 in FPPG, despite less opportunity than his fantasy rivals. Kittle was able to turn the TE7 in receiving targets to the TE5 in receptions and TE3 in receiving yards, displaying an ability to maximize his touches and showcasing a strong connection with quarterback Brock Purdy. Kittle is below average in tight end routes run, due to his overall importance to the 49ers’ offense, with a balanced role as a blocker and receiver. The positive of this metric is Kittle is playing the majority of snaps, meaning he is on the field more and would see a greater usage in the play action receiving game than a niche receiving tight end.
Despite a lack of elite pass usage overall, Kittle was heavily targeted in the red zone, leading to eight touchdowns on the season, tied for second in the league. Kittle was also the TE2 in yards after the catch, impressive considering his age (31) and the physical nature of his substantial role as a blocker. With season-ending injuries to Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk, there is no surprise Kittle led the league in yards per team pass attempt, as a key figure of the 49ers’ offense. Also, Kittle was the TE1 in yards per route run, again highlighting superb efficiency and explosiveness.
Verdict
It would be unfair to cite the 49ers’ injuries to funnelling production to Kittle, especially considering the WR24 overall finish by Jauan Jennings and flashes from his wide receiving teammate Ricky Pearsall. Kittle was extremely consistent in 2024, playing 15/17 games and only registering two games outside of TE1 weekly output. Kittle has maintained a top-six dynasty value at the position, despite his advancing years. Whilst there is difficulty buying into him in the long-term due to the brutal nature of the position, Kittle’s metrics are extremely promising for short-term success. Contenders should be actively targeting Kittle, for an early 2025 second round pick or a combo of late 2025 second and third round picks. With the trade of Deebo Samuel, the questions of McCaffrey and emerging talents protecting him from an incoming rookie star wide receiver, Kittle is a strong player for win-now dynasty squads.
George Kittle – DLF Game Log App.
Mark Andrews, TE BAL
- Targets: TE20
- Snap Share: TE25
- Routes Run: TE22
- Target Depth: TE1
- Receptions: TE14
- Yards After Catch: TE26
- Total Touchdowns: TE1
- Expected Fantasy Points Per Game: TE22
- Fantasy Points Per Game: TE7
Andrews’ 2024 fantasy production and metrics was one of the most interesting I’ve reviewed this off-season. Andrews’ story over the last year or so has been incredible, helping with an in-flight emergency on a flight, involved in a car crash last August, the multiple weeks of scoring zero fantasy points and the drop which effectively knocked the Ravens out of the NFL playoffs – the latter likely impacting his market value with recency bias. Looking at fantasy production, the TE7 in FPPG is solid, albeit slightly below expectations. Andrews led the league in touchdowns, with 11 in total, three more than his next closest rival – making his TE7 finish more concerning with potential incoming touchdown regression. It was also encouraging that Andrews led the league in target depth, despite playing in his age 29 season.
The rest of Andrews’ metrics profile is worrying, with a lower number of targets, snap share and routes run than what you would expect from a borderline elite, win-now tight end. Andrews’ receptions were solid when factoring in targets, however the TE14 output in receptions is a concern for consistency on a yearly basis. Andrews was poor after the catch and considering his situation, opportunity and usage, he would have been expected to finish as the TE22 in FPPG – a vast difference from his actual TE7 finish, highlighting a significant overachievement in fantasy.
Verdict
Casually reflecting upon Andrews’ FPPG and touchdown numbers will lead you to believe 2024 was a success, however it comes with underlying concern and high-risk within his profile. After the disappointing effort in the playoffs and advancing age, the market has reacted with Andrews valued on the TE1/2 cusp, including rookies. Selling veterans around the draft period is an easy way of siphoning value from your roster. I lean towards pivoting from Andrews, considering the risk versus reward, however I’m taking a reserved approach at the moment, looking to strike a deal early during the regular season, where his appeal to contenders will increase.
Jonnu Smith, TE MIA
- Targets: TE4
- Snap Share: TE35
- Routes Run: TE14
- Target Depth: TE34
- Red Zone Targets: TE5
- Receptions: TE4
- Total Touchdowns: TE2
- Yards Per Team Pass Attempt: TE5
- Fantasy Points Per Game: TE5
Smith delivered a true breakout in his eighth season in the league, finishing as the TE5 in fantasy points per game, supported by an excellent metrics profile in the main. Worryingly, his snap share was TE35, showing he was used sparingly in the offense, more like slot wide receiver type numbers than full-time tight end, but when Smith was on the field he was heavily utilized. Although his target depth was low, Smith was able to produce excellent metrics overall as the TE4 in targets and receptions. Smith received strong opportunities in the red zone and delivered fantastic efficiency as the TE2 in touchdowns. The impressive metrics continue, with Smith producing the TE5 output in yards per team pass attempt and the same number, finishing as the TE5 in FPPG.
Verdict
Whilst Smith was on the field sparingly and mainly utilized around the line of scrimmage, his 2024 season was a massive fantasy success. His key target competition in Tyreek Hill and De’Von Achane played in every game, with Jaylen Waddle only missing two contests, showing Smith’s output was through strong play as opposed to lack of alternatives in the offense. Currently valued as a mid-TE2, Smith is coming off his best ever season and with room to continue shining, with a low likelihood the Dolphins make a splash in the receiving room. Smith is a fine target as a cheap TE2, who can produce TE1 numbers, who I’m happy to purchase for a late 2025 second round draft pick, possibly cheaper.
He is a keen supporter of mental health projects, where dynasty content is his coping strategy to remain in an optimal mindset.
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- Dynasty Perspective Through Advanced Metrics: Tight Ends - March 8, 2025
