Dynasty Wide Receivers in the Final Year of Their NFL Contracts
As we know, there are a number of different approaches in dynasty football. Some owners like to come hot out of the gates with a “win-now” paradigm, while others are content punting a few seasons in an attempt to build a long-lasting dynasty in the years subsequent. Forward-thinking “windows” may then subsequently be defined, be it one year, three years, or even farther out.
Regardless of tact, there is one commonality with any vision of the future – to some extent, you still need to plan ahead! None of us is Nostradamus, and there is always risk with making longer-term investments predicated upon scenarios for which you have no control. As an example, a prospective free agent may eschew goodness of team fit for greatness of money, thereby failing to provide return upon fantasy investment.
But this is no reason to play scared! To quote Ralph Waldo Emerson, “there is no knowledge that is not power.” With that in mind, this miniseries seeks to provide information and assessment on the 2026 crop of free agents – yes, a full year in advance, so you can stay ahead of your league mates. Let’s continue with the wide receiver position!
2021 and 2022 Rookie Wide Receivers
As we know, every rookie drafted into the NFL is placed onto a four-year contract, with a team option for a fifth year for those selected in the draft’s first round. Given this, there exists the potential for members of the 2021 and 2022 rookie classes to join the ranks of free agency.
For the 2021 rookies, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith and Rashod Bateman have already signed new contracts, and Kadarius Toney is unlikely to ever play another down in the NFL. This leaves only Ja’Marr Chase, who is popularly viewed as one of the top two assets in dynasty fantasy football.
As shown above it’s a split between Chase and Justin Jefferson, with CeeDee Lamb fairly well back due to him incredibly falling to pick 1.11 in mock draft #3. As an alpha who will command targets no matter where he winds up, I’m agnostic towards a potential 2026 move and how it would affect his dynasty fortunes. But I also don’t see it happening, as even the pennywise Bengals can’t afford to let him walk. Sooner or later he’ll be the highest paid non-quarterback in football and off the market for another several years.
For those who remember the 2022 NFL Draft, it was the year of the first-round receiver, with six selected in the draft’s first 18 picks. Of these six, I believe the first four will either have their fifth-year options picked up, or will be signed to a new deal outright, meaning they will not be free agents in 2026. This short list includes Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave and Jameson Williams.
The first two seem like locks to me, and I believe the latter two have done enough for their respective teams to give them at least another season. While dynasty owners remain high on both players, as shown below, Olave and Williams have taken very different routes to their current standings. The former has remained largely Teflon until only recently, despite his play not quite living up to his lofty ADP. The latter, meanwhile, has overcome a number of twists and turns, many of his own devising, to now find himself inside dynasty’s top 50 players. Were they to become available, I’d probably be more looking to Olave’s all-around skillset even despite his risky injury history. An upgrade in quarterback play could help shepherd him to the next level of NFL and fantasy production.
Already traded from his original team and failing to stand out on his second, it’s hard to envision Jahan Dotson’s fifth year option getting picked up by the Eagles. A promising rookie season largely predicated on receiving scores now stands as his only relative high point through three years, though at least he now has a Super Bowl ring. Unlikely to get significant run behind Smith or AJ Brown, I don’t see his value improving substantially in 2025. Optimists could view this as a time to “buy low,” but it’s more likely he doesn’t reemerge as a difference maker.
If Dotson has been underwhelming, Treylon Burks has been downright catastrophic. I’m less concerned about where he lands in 2026, and more concerned he even makes it that far. Once viewed as an explosive, albeit raw size-speed mismatch, Burks needs to get and stay healthy, with 2025 functioning as perhaps his final stand.
The mercurial George Pickens leads the non-first round selections. Through three years he’s now cleared 900 yards twice, finishing 2024 as the PPR WR42 after missing three contests and parts of others. The PPR WR28 the year before, Pickens probably doesn’t catch enough passes to become an elite PPR asset and is too hit or miss for my liking. But with that said, getting him to a location where he can benefit from competent quarterback play could see him reach new highs.
Of Green Bay teammates Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, I’m taking the latter fairly easily. Both have missed time, and though Watson has shown a Doston-esque ceiling due to his ability to score the ball, Doubs seems to be the apple of quarterback Jordan Love’s eye. As shown below he’s actually the only Packer receiver to accumulate value over the past calendar year, and Watson’s late-season injury could mean that Doubs continues his ascension while Watson perpetuates his plunge. With that said, while I’ve viewed Doubs as something of a “perma-buy,” the early 2025 season presents an opportunity to buy Watson on the cheap in the hope he turns into a strong 2026 reclamation project.
Likely typecast as a slot receiver due to his size, Wan’Dale Robinson had perhaps one of the saddest 140-target seasons in recent memory last season, turning them into a meager 93-699-3 line. To put that into perspective, despite being tied for the tenth-most looks in the league, he finished the year as the PPR WR36. Much of that is due to the lack of dynamic in the New York passing offense, but you’ll have to squint to see massive future viability. I’d be a buyer on the cheap, but would first prefer to see a few baby steps forward in the early parts of 2025.
Metrics courtesy of Mock Draftable.
I have no interest in draft day busts Skyy Moore, Tyquan Thornton and David Bell, but am at least mildly intrigued by slow riser Jalen Tolbert. No, the numbers weren’t great, but finishing as the PPR WR45 was miles better than his prior conclusions as the WR201 (2022) and WR96 (2023). Apart from production, the biggest black mark against him is that he’ll be 27 years old at the start of the 2026 campaign, which is a bit older for a rookie starting his second contract. Still, I’m intrigued and will be tracking him accordingly.
Rounding out the list are Alec Pierce, Calvin Austin and Jalen Nailor. To some extent, each of the three represent big play threats waiting to happen. For qualifying receivers Pierce actually led the league in air yards, while Austin posted a crisp 15.2 YPC last season. Nailor took a small step back, but for his career averages a robust 15.6 YPC.
Despite having the size and speed, Pierce is cursed with low volume on a team devoid of passing prowess. Of these three players listed, I’m most excited to see where he winds up. Pierce will be 26 before the 2026 season, meaning there could be a few more prime years as a peak Robby (Chosen) Anderson type of pass catcher.
The Uber-Veterans
Similar to what I said about Derrick Henry in the running back version of this piece, it’s hard to think past 2025 with some of these stalwarts. Come 2026, Adam Thielen, Mike Evans and Tyler Lockett will be 35, 33 and 33 years old respectively. Perhaps more importantly, of this trio only Evans provided fantasy viability in 2024 as the PPR WR11, and it’s worth noting he was able to do this in only 14 contests.
Thielen has played surprisingly well the past couple years, but I just can’t look past his age. At 14.0 PPR points per game in 2024 he provided usable stats, and if he comes back to Carolina next season I’m intrigued. But any deal would be for what he provided next year, not for a later date down the road.
On the other hand, Lockett has now regressed for two years straight despite playing a full complement of games. Once a lock for 1,000+ yards and a PPR WR2 or better seasonal finish, the Seahawks veteran was more of a roster clogger than anything in 2024. Soundly surpassed by younger teammate Jaxon Smith-Njigba, I’m not holding out hope for a turnaround in 2025, meaning 2026 isn’t even on the radar.
Statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
This brings us back to Evans, who may be the most Henry-esque receiver in the NFL. No matter what the league throws at him, and no matter how much circumstances change, he stands as a metronome of consistency and production.
The “1,000 yards every season” is a fun flex, but how about being at least a PPR WR2 in each of his 11 years in the league? That’s a consistent dominance we’ve not recently seen. When compared to his fellow 2014 NFL Draft compatriots, he nearly stands alone – to that point, just consider the names Sammy Watkins, Odell Beckham, Brandin Cooks, Kelvin Benjamin, Marqise Lee, Jordan Matthews, Allen Robinson and Jarvis Landry (etc.). These players are either running on fumes or out of the league altogether. Over a decade later, only draft-mate Davante Adams has joined him in doing honest work in the year 2024.
So what to do?
The simple truth is that players are good until they’re not. Julio Jones went from nearly 1,400 yards to under 800, and even farther downward after that. AJ Green’s final four years in the league all yielded fewer than 900 yards. Andre Johnson’s failed stints in Indianapolis and Tennessee were similarly forgettable. Calvin Johnson showed us that you either retire the hero, or live long enough to see yourself become a replacement-level player.
This is all to say the cliff is going to come, we just don’t know exactly when. 2025 seems like something of a safe bet, but I’m likely playing for next year and that’s it. Anything in 2026 will be a bonus, and if he struggles before that his trade value will crash.
The 20-Something A-Listers
While DK Metcalf hasn’t since reached the highs he achieved in his second season in the league (83-1,303-10), he’s accrued at least 967 yards in each of the four years since, while consistently earning targets. This has left him as a player who perhaps lacks an elite ceiling, but carries with him a fine floor.
17.5% of the time Metcalf was helping you win weeks (including 6.2% top-five), and he wasn’t losing them for you about 63% of the time (weekly WR3 or better). Again, reiterating the point that to date he’s performed as a high-end asset, though not a fantasy unicorn. Sometimes all that’s needed is a change of scenery.
To that point, we have to look no further than to Metcalf’s college teammate, AJ Brown. Already a good player, Brown pushed to the next level upon his trade to the Philadelphia Eagles, becoming unlocked with quarterback Jalen Hurts after hitting something of a ceiling in Tennessee. 28 years old when he hits free agency, we can look for similar with Metcalf. Currently the WR27 per the dynasty ADP, Metcalf isn’t being valued anywhere near his potential ceiling.
For an additional point to capture this paradigm, we can look to Commanders’ pass catcher Terry McLaurin. Following the team’s selection of quarterback Jayden Daniels with the second pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, we were finally able to answer the question of “what happens when McLaurin gets a good quarterback?” The conclusion? A finish as the PPR WR7 on the back of a career-best 13 receiving scores.
As such, the hope here is McLaurin remains in the cozy confines of the DC area. He’s easily the team’s top option in the passing game, and Daniels should only continue to improve. Still, as the WR26 per the current dynasty ADP, I feel similarly agnostic here as I did with Metcalf, given he’s being priced well below his fantasy value. I’ve never not been a buyer on McLaurin, and there’s no reason for that to change now regardless of a potential 2026 free agency.
Given what appears to be a slow and steady decline, I’m hesitant to even include Deebo Samuel in this mix. But as a once and perhaps future PPR WR1, I’ll give him his due.
The above diagram effectively encapsulates the problem for Samuel. Even with him missing contests every season, he was always able to provide a solid floor based upon his Swiss Army Knife utilization. But when the rushing rug was pulled out from underneath his feet (12.6% of his points in 2024), he simply didn’t do enough through the air to make up for it.
Samuel will be 30 years old if/when he hits free agency in 2026. I can only view this as a dent to his dynasty value, which is already flagging as the WR45. If I own him I’m probably holding for now given his current devaluation, but I’m not expecting a turnaround.
The Likely Contributors
Similar to McLaurin as described above, Broncos pass catcher Courtland Sutton also put forward the best season of his career after being paired with a 2024 rookie first round quarterback.
Once appearing as a lock to be a future high-caliber asset, a 2020 torn ACL derailed Sutton’s career, as he was then forced to languish through rehab and poor passing. And while he turned the corner as last season’s PPR WR15, the returns were solid, if perhaps unspectacular. This is what I’d anticipate moving forward, and given he’ll be 30 years old and was never particularly fleet of foot, a potentially new locale doesn’t pique my interest. Still, as the WR39 per the current dynasty ADP, he is priced well below his likely production over the next two to three years.
Given rookie Brian Thomas Jr’s hostile takeover of the Jaguars passing attack, veteran teammate Christian Kirk would likely be best served by finding a new team in 2026 free agency. A best-case scenario sees him establishing himself as the team’s WR2 and then finding a slot-needy squad in the subsequent off-season. A PPR WR1 as recently as 2022, I like him as a speculative cost-conscious buy.
All “Touchdown Machine” Jakobi Meyers has done over the entirety of his career is provide WR2/3 fantasy while barely ever populating the dynasty ADP’s top 100 players. Given he’s already shown an ability to produce on two poor passing offenses in the Patriots and Raiders, I’m not concerned with his 2026 destination. Always providing return on his investment, Meyers will likely be a smart dynasty buy until the day he retires.
Jauan Jennings sneakily finished the 2024 season as the PPR WR24 while missing two contests. There is tangible downside here as prior to last year he never eclipsed 416 receiving yards. But with teammates Brandon Aiyuk still on the mend, Samuel declining, and Ricky Pearsall only providing a few minor flashes, Jennings could surprise again in 2025, setting the stage for a robust 2026 free agency. For a cheap standalone trade or as a throw-in, he’s a sensible dart throw.
One of the sadder 2024 storylines was the cruel injury fate of Saints receiver Rashid Shaheed. Finally making his way from deep threat specialist to legitimate weekly NFL and fantasy asset, Shaheed had scored at least 16 PPR points in four of his first give contests, functioning as a PPR WR2 in each. A meniscus injury that ended his 2024 campaign shouldn’t stop him in 2025, however, and unless New Orleans makes a major splash in free agency or the 2025 NFL Draft he should once again function as one of the team’s top pass catchers.
The Other Guys
Both Mark Wahlberg and Will Ferrell concluded their 2024 seasons with a bang, scoring…
Whoops, wrong Other Guys!
Nothing would make me happier than for Texan John Metchie to turn into a solid fantasy asset. With Tank Dell potentially missing the whole 2025 season and rumors asserting Stefon Diggs won’t be returning to Houston, opportunity awaits. Currently something of an also-ran being selected in the back portions of startup dynasty drafts, I’d prefer Metchie’s marriage of skill and opportunity over most others in this region.
While Dontayvion Wicks has flashed for Green Bay, he was also extraordinarily unreliable in 2024. Catching barely half of his 76 targets, Wicks was more miss than hit, with only four games resulting in double-digit PPR points. I have a hard time seeing him climbing the depth chart in 2025, and would only have him at the very outskirts of my 2026 radar.
To me, Jalen Coker is one of the better speculative buys in dynasty football. While he entered the league sans any semblance of draft capital, he nevertheless made the Carolina roster and turned into one of the key contributors in their passing game. As shown below, he played first round receiver Xavier Legette to a near standstill over the course of their respective rookie seasons.
While the Panthers are popularly rumored to nab another pass catcher either in free agency or in the 2025 NFL Draft, for now Coker can be safely slotted in as one of the team’s top three receivers. When looking to round out any proposed trades, I’d be seeking to throw him in as an add-on to a larger deal.
The following players have occasionally provided fantasy utility but don’t make the (admittedly subjective) threshold for in-depth chronicling: Phillip Dorsett, Kalif Raymond, Chris Moore, Josh Reynolds, Ray-Ray McCloud, Cedrick Wilson, KJ Hamler, Isaiah Hodgins, Kelvin Harmon, Xavier Gipson and AT Perry.
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