Dynasty Perspective Through Advanced Metrics: Wide Receivers

Puka Nacua | Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea

Kevin White Posted On March 1, 2025

Fantasy football is a game decided by numbers. In this four part series, I’ll be reviewing advanced player metrics via Player Profiler from the 2024 season, to understand the numbers behind the data, outline a contextual story and provide actionable advice in dynasty.

The third article in the series will focus on wide receivers, analyzing metrics to give a true reflection of performance and expectations moving forward. The previous article on running back can be found here.

Puka Nacua, WR LAR

Target Rate: WR1
Targets: WR30
Average Depth Of Target: WR95
Catchable Target Rate: WR67
Receptions: WR19
Yards After Catch: WR12
Yards Per Route Run: WR1
Fantasy Points Per Route: WR1
Fantasy Points Per Game: WR2

Despite missing five games through injury and playing minority snaps in two other games, Nacua was highly productive in 2025, as the WR30 in overall targets and WR19 in overall receptions. Nacua was the best in the league at target rate, the ratio of total targets to total routes run, highlighting extreme volume when healthy. Interestingly, Nacua was often used around the line of scrimmage, with an extremely low depth of target, using his solid yards after the catch ability to move the offense.

Despite high usage in the short passing game, Nacua had a poor catchable target rate, highlighting poor quarterback play in this area and less worry should the Rams move on from quarterback Matthew Stafford. Irrespective of his situation, Nacua was the WR1 overall in yards per route run and fantasy points per route – key metrics to showcase and ability to make the most of his opportunity and a key reason behind his WR2 finish in fantasy points per game (FPPG).

Verdict

The rumours of Stafford being traded away should not deter you from targeting Nacua in dynasty, as one of the most situation-proof wide receivers in the game. With an ability to command huge target shares and make the most of his opportunities, Nacua’s ceiling is massive. With only ten touchdowns across his two seasons, any spike would result in potential WR1 overall numbers. Nacua solidified himself as a top-ten dynasty wide receiver, however I feel his market value around WR7 is too low. I’m actively targeting Nacua in all settings, with him a clear target for any team pivoting from the elite Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase or any team looking to pivot up from the likes of Garrett Wilson. Nacua should be a solid, borderline first-round selection in dynasty startups this off-season.

Puka Nacua – DLF ADP History.

Marvin Harrison Jr, WR ARI

Targets: WR20
Air Yards: WR6
Catchable Target Rate: WR64
Receptions: WR37
Yards After Catch: WR70
Total Touchdowns: WR13
Yards Per Route Run: WR58
Target Separation: WR107
Fantasy Points Per Game: WR39

One of the biggest disappointments of the 2024 rookie cycle, Harrison Jr was a consensus top two rookie draft pick and immediately viewed as a borderline elite wide receiver at the market, ahead of his rookie campaign. While finishing as the WR39 in FPPG isn’t truly awful, the fantasy output didn’t match the expectation. Harrison Jr did display encouraging metrics, in the sense of a solid amount of receiving targets and an excellent output in air yards – a combination which could lead to strong production with improved efficiency. Also, registering as the WR13 in total touchdowns was a positive, showcasing the big-play talent the community were accustomed to during his time at Ohio State.

It could be argued that his role and inconsistent quarterback play from Kyler Murray contributed to a poor rookie season, however Harrison Jr should also take his share of the blame for his disappointing fantasy production. Advertised as an elite route runner, Harrison Jr played well within himself, highlighted by a hugely disappointing output of WR107 in target separation. Also, the lack of receiving yards after the catch made him more reliant on a perfect situation and play to generate production. Lastly, Harrison Jr’s yards per route run were below expectation, displaying poor efficiency from the opportunity provided to him.

Verdict

Before the season I was lower than market on Harrison Jr, a player who I felt was hyped up due to his father Marvin Harrison’s success in the league and as part of the popular wide receiver factory narrative of Ohio State. Harrison’s disappointing rookie season has led the market to view him close to the WR10 and as a borderline round two to round three pick in dynasty startups. Harrison Jr has a lot to prove in his sophomore season, after playing in a solid environment with a strong quarterback and elite tight end Trey McBride in 2024. I’m actively looking to pivot from Harrison Jr, whilst his name value is still viewed as a potential WR1 overall in the league – where I’m happy to go after Rome Odunze or Xavier Worthy, with extra on top.

Jalen McMillan, WR TB

Target Share: WR76
Slot Snaps: WR84
Receiving Yards: WR77
Red Zone Targets: WR71
Total Touchdowns: WR13
Yards Per Route Run: WR87
Route Win Rate: WR92
Expected Fantasy Points Per Game: WR65
Fantasy Points Per Game: WR43

Currently valued around the WR40 at the market, McMillan had a strong finish to 2024 after a disappointing start to his rookie campaign. Looking at his full overview, McMillan was far from impressive, as the WR76 and WR77 in target share and receiving yards respectively – showing an inability to command consistent opportunities or produce the staple of fantasy production for a wide receiver in receiving yards. The majority of McMillan’s fantasy output came in a five-week window to close the season, natural progression for a rookie but also when key wide receiver Chris Godwin was on injured reserve and tight end Cade Otton also missing time.

McMillan was used sparingly in the red zone, with his WR13 output in total touchdowns falling outside of expectations and due to regress. Yards per route run and route win rate were typical of an average to below average wide receiver in the league. Entering the league, McMillan was seen as producing his best performances from the slot wide receiver role and despite the major injury to Godwin (a player with notorious high slot usage) he was only able to finish as the WR84 in slot snaps. It is clear the performance in total touchdowns was an outlier, with there being a large discrepancy between his expected FPPG at WR65 and his actual FPPG at WR43.

Verdict

With the increase in the salary cap and the presence of Mike Evans, the Buccaneers will look to stay in contention and are likely to re-sign Godwin, hindering McMillan’s road to fantasy success. The rookie production was an outlier, based on poor underlying metrics and an unsustainable touchdown rate. McMillan is in a flat tier at the market, making it easy to pivot sideways to veteran production or rookie upside. I struggle to see McMillan increasing his short-term value or production with Godwin around and with this looking extremely likely I would be looking to capitalize on McMillan’s value and make the pivot as soon as possible.

Jalen McMillan – DLF Game Log App.

Jayden Reed, WR GB

Targets: WR54
Route %: WR73
Slot Snaps: WR10
Air Yards: WR69
Receptions: WR45
Receiving Yards: WR32
Yards Per Route Run: WR15
Fantasy Points Per Target: WR1
Fantasy Points Per Game: WR38

One of the most enigmatic wide receivers in the league, Reed has an intriguing metric profile. Despite a lower number of targets, he out-produced expectation for receptions and yardage in 2024, with great efficiency and a strong yards-after-the-catch ability. It is difficult to have confidence or expect consistency with Reed finishing as the WR73 in route percentage, used sparingly as part of the Packers’ diluted passing offense. Reed is used in a majority role from the slot position, with a lack of opportunity outside this specialist role worrying for his fantasy floor. Despite a low amount of air yardage, Reed still produces excellent yards per route run and is the best wide receiver in the league at fantasy points per target. With an inconsistent metrics profile, there is no surprise Reed’s FPPG is middling, finishing as the WR38 in this statistic last season.

Verdict

Reed is in a difficult situation in dynasty, where the fantasy production will never be consistent without greater usage outside of his current slot role. Valued around the WR30 at the market, Reed feels correctly priced based on his fantasy performance and factoring upside. Due to his weekly volatility, you have to focus more on team building with a player like Reed in your lineup, where he is best used in the flex position and not a cornerstone of your lineup. Depending on league economy and specific rookie drafts, Reed could be a great pivot away from if you can snag a falling receiver at the end of round one – such as shooting for the moon with potential superstar Travis Hunter.

Marvin Mims, WR DEN

Targets: WR83
Target Rate: WR7
Average Depth Of Target: WR92
Receptions: WR63
Yards After Catch: WR8
Yards Per Route Run: WR4
Target Separation: WR1
Fantasy Points Per Route: WR2
Fantasy Points Per Game: WR66

One of the most unique metrics profiles I’ve ever reviewed, Mims’ 2024 season initially looked underwhelming as the WR66 in FPPG and the WR83 in targets, however looking deeper identified many promising aspects in his game. Finishing as the WR63 in receptions is below average overall, but shows an efficiency in relation to his targets, likely supported by the low average depth of target and the logical easier completion. Where Mims excelled was in yards after the catch and target rate – showing he’s great with the ball in his hands as a runner and commanding opportunity when on the field.

Interestingly, despite the majority of targets coming closer to the line of scrimmage, Mims led the league in target separation – typically a metric you would associate with creating space over a longer distance, for example a deep passing play. Also, Mims’ yards per route run and fantasy points per route run were elite last season – an excellent indication for fantasy success and extremely similar numbers to the aforementioned Nacua.

Verdict

The view on Mims is simple, if he can ever command significant playing time in this offense, whilst maintaining similar levels of consistency, he’s going to become a star in dynasty. Still only 22 years old, Mims is early on his journey in the NFL. The receiving core in Denver is underwhelming and there should be competition added, but a number of key metrics give me excitement for Mims’ dynasty outlook moving forward. With his value around a late 2025 second-round draft pick, potentially cheaper, Mims is a wildcard target of mine – especially in a rebuild, where I’m looking for a spike in value opportunity more than instant fantasy production.

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Kevin White

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Kev is a portfolio dynasty aficionado from the UK. He is a strong advocate of using market inefficiencies, advanced metrics & player archetypes to influence his dynasty decisions. He is passionate in taking the contrarian stance: providing evidence & game theory to challenge an opposing view, with thought-provoking analysis. Creator of STORM Analysis - Situation, Talent, Opportunity, Risk, Market.

He is a keen supporter of mental health projects, where dynasty content is his coping strategy to remain in an optimal mindset.