Dynasty Running Backs in the Final Year of Their NFL Contracts
As we know, there are a number of different approaches in dynasty football. Some owners like to come hot out of the gates with a “win now” paradigm, while others are content punting a few seasons in an attempt to build a long-lasting dynasty in the years subsequent. Forward-thinking “windows” may then subsequently be defined, be it one year, three years, or even farther out.
Regardless of tact, there is one commonality with any vision of the future – to some extent, you still need to plan ahead! None of us is Nostradamus, and there is always risk with making longer-term investments predicated upon scenarios for which you have no control. As an example, a prospective free agent may eschew goodness of team fit for greatness of money, thereby failing to provide return upon fantasy investment.
But this is no reason to play scared! To quote Ralph Waldo Emerson, “there is no knowledge that is not power.” With that in mind, this miniseries seeks to provide information and assessment on the 2026 crop of free agents – yes, a full year in advance, such that you can stay ahead of your league mates. Let’s continue with the running back position!
2021 and 2022 Rookie Running Backs
As we know, every rookie drafted into the NFL is placed on a four-year contract, with a team option for a fifth year for those selected in the draft’s first round. Given this, there exists the potential for members of the 2021 and 2022 rookie classes to join the ranks of free agency.
For the 2021 rookies, Najee Harris already had his fifth-year option declined and he’s currently an unrestricted free agent. The player picked immediately behind him, Jacksonville’s Travis Etienne, did have his option picked up, though the team may now be second-guessing that decision following a middling 2024 campaign.
No, your eyes aren’t playing tricks on you. The 2023 PPR RB3 did not have a single weekly PPR RB1 performance last season! In failing to do so he lost volume to second-year player Tank Bigsby, who ultimately put up better numbers on higher volume on the ground. Etienne secured a larger share of the receiving work, which might be where his future lies. Clearly he has a place in the league, but a best-case scenario moving forward may see him as a Pierre Thomas type of player.
But let’s talk about that 2022 class, shall we?
While there wasn’t a single ball carrier selected in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft, as shown above (underlined in red) there are seven members of this class currently going in the top 21 at the position (33.3%) as of the most current ADP. This includes three dynasty RB1s and five of the top 14 running backs overall.
Of them, the most projectable moving forward may be current Jet Breece Hall. While he astonishingly doesn’t yet have a 1,000-yard rushing season to his name, on a per-game effort he’s pumping out 91 total yards and just under four receptions, showing utility as a three-down player. His fantasy point compilation, as shown below, is split nearly 50/50 between points from rushing and receiving – this effectively raises his ceiling while providing a solid floor even when game script goes awry. Still only 23 years old, he’s largely transcended a moribund New York offense, and could take it to another level if finds more fertile fantasy grounds.
While he’s a year older and didn’t break out until his second year in the league, the Rams’ Kyren Williams has been an even better version of his Jets counterpart. Over the last two seasons, he’s averaged 101.1 total yards per game, and has also managed to score the ball at a significantly more robust clip with 1.1 touchdowns per contest. Even with six missed contests, this has allowed Williams to finish as a top-end positional asset in both 2023 and 2024.
While his ADP has finally caught up to his fantasy value, there still seems to be some subjectivity in his assessment. My suspicion is that despite what he’s done in the league, dynasty owners can’t help but be continuously drawn back into the gravitational pull of his poor NFL Combine metrics and subsequent draft capital. But if he’s good enough for Sean McVay’s vision of a workhorse, he’s good enough for me – there’s some risk if he leaves the cozy confines of Los Angeles, but it wouldn’t preclude me from making a trade offer.
Of all my misses in recent memory, Buffalo’s James Cook may be the biggest. I viewed him as too small and with too unproven a collegiate workload to translate into an effective NFL RB1/1a. And while I wasn’t a huge fan of 2024 rookie Ray Davis, I viewed his fourth-round selection as another shot across the bow. One PPR RB11 finish later, I’m left revisiting my process after missing an opportunity to obtain him at reduced cost.
Still, I’m not going to “throw good money after bad” here. A dynasty RB9 cost is too steep for a player with only 15 touches per game and too few of them being receptions. His 16 scores, which tied for the league lead, are what enabled him to finish as highly as he did – but this is a repeat performance I’m not counting on, particularly when Bills quarterback Josh Allen finished with 100 fewer passing attempts in 2024 than he had in the four years prior. I’d be happy to hold here, but would be more likely to sell than buy.
Kenneth Walker might be the ultimate dynasty Rorschach Test. While he missed six contests due to injury in 2024, he was still the RB12 in terms of points per game, just behind Cook with 16.5 weekly PPR points. And though his YPC dipped below the Mendoza Line for the first time in his career, he also corralled an impressive 86.7% of his 53 targets, showing true dual-threat usage.
The vision I choose to see is one of a player who is still young and should have plenty of tread left on his tires. A flagging value presents an opportunity to buy, and even if he shares opportunities in 2025 he could sign elsewhere prior to 2026 to accumulate greater usage.
Isiah Pacheco’s value has been something of an inverted feedback loop – it was relatively lower when he was producing, including in the 2022 and 2023 seasons, but stayed high despite a disastrous 2024 campaign.
To that point, Pacheco simply wasn’t the same player we’ve seen previously following his late November return from a broken fibula. Across eight contests (including playoffs) he only received double-digit carries once, and only cleared 4.0 YPC a single time. He was effectively mothballed in the postseason, with a mere 18 opportunities across three games. All told he returned as a 30-40% player stuck in a three-way timeshare with Kareem Hunt and Samaje Perine.
Snap data courtesy of 4for4.com.
A healthy off-season should provide a runway to once again take off as a fringe PPR RB1 in 2025, particularly with Hunt and Perine as looming free agents. This would position him well for his second contract, with the hope he would remain in Kansas City. Still, the close to the 2024 season was worrisome, and he’ll turn 26 prior to the 2025 season. I’d likely wait until after the NFL Draft to make a move.
I feel similarly about Brian Robinson, another surprisingly older rising fourth-year player. Across three seasons he appears to have hit a wall as something of a faux bell-cow, RB1a/b type player. He’s yet to accrue 200 carries in a season, and largely puts up replacement-level numbers ranging from 3.9 – 4.3 YPC.
Wholly uninspiring, Robinson never won weeks for you, but in his defense he rarely lost them, either. He seems likely to kick around the league as a committee player or backup, but I’m not expecting a new contract to unlock some new, unrealized potential.
The “PPR scammiest” ball carrier in the league the past few seasons, Rachaad White’s gravy train was finally derailed in 2024 by the emergence of teammate Bucky Irving. As the lack of competition was the biggest thing White had going for him, it’s hard to imagine a better scenario awaiting him in free agency next year than what he had in 2022-2023. I wouldn’t personally throw anything more than an early third-round pick as a speculative buy, which per current valuation means I’m unlikely to roster him.
Rounding out the relevant members of this rookie class are Jerome Ford, Dameon Pierce, Zamir White, Tyler Allgeier and Hassan Haskins. Of these players I’m most intrigued by Allgeier, who popped as a rookie prior to the team drafting Bijan Robinson as an early first-round pick.
Despite a surprisingly increased touchdown frequency over the last two seasons, Allgeier was almost 3.0 PPR points better as a rookie, when he finished as the RB30. He’s not a frequently utilized pass catcher, but there may be enough Gus Edwards to his game where if he finds a nice landing spot affording goal-line opportunities, he could be a future PPR RB2.
From here, you can copy and paste the above for Jerome Ford, replacing Robinson with Nick Chubb, while also adding in some bonus receiving prowess.
Ford will likely never be a classic bell-cow type running back, but with 81 receptions over the past two seasons, he doesn’t need to be. Efficient enough on the ground (4.4 career YPC) and with good enough size (5’10”, 210 pounds), there’s going to be a place in the league for him as a 1a/1b type of running back. I’d seek to buy now, particularly in case he winds up being the Browns starter in 2025 and increases his value.
Next, I’d take a dart throw on Pierce, who had a moment in the sun as the PPR RB25 as a rookie. He’s bottomed out since, leading the team to sign Joe Mixon to effectively replace him. But even after falling flat in 2023 he’s still at 4.1 YPC for his career, and isn’t a complete liability in the passing game. Essentially free, I’d take him over a late-round rookie pick, particularly in leagues with deeper benches.
I’m out on White, who showed nothing when given the opportunity and strikes me as a replacement-level talent. For cost I’d rather have Haskins, who began to carve out a role with the Chargers towards the end of the 2025 season.
Snap data courtesy of 4for4.com.
This is equivalent to a blindfolded dart throw after a beer too many, but we shouldn’t forget he was an accomplished collegiate player who ran tough and showed up in big games. With JK Dobbins not under contract and the team having an easy out on Edwards, Haskins may have the opportunity to make a name for himself next season and earn some money come 2026.
Also present: Gary Brightwell, JJ Taylor, Pierre Strong, Zonovan Knight, Keaontay Ingram and Ty Chandler.
The Big Dog
I could spill enough ink on the Ravens’ Derrick Henry for this to be its own column. After all this is a player who has continued to defy his age, stiff-arming Father Time in 2024 to finish as the PPR RB3 on the back of the second-most yards of his career, and highest YPC at nearly 6.0. Do I think he can run it back in 2025? Absolutely. Do I think he’ll do it yet again in 2026, or that he’ll even want to attempt it? I have absolutely no clue.
Maybe playing with Lamar Jackson represents the magic formula, as Henry was able to turn slightly less volume into greater efficiency as compared to the rest of his career (excluding his first two seasons in the league where he split time). Maybe that would be enough to keep him around a bit longer. But it’s little more than speculation when we’re talking about a player who will be 32 years old this time next year.
As such there’s not much advice that can be provided here. If Henry is running hot through the midway point of next season, start to think about a speculative add based on future value. But just know that the folks likely buying Henry are strong contenders for the current 2025 season and are adding him for that explicit reason, and those selling him are on the other side of that same coin. That said, this off-season, particularly during the rookie draft, likely represents the best chance to buy him for the foreseeable future.
The Other Crusty Veterans
Cordarrelle Patterson will be nearly 35 years old prior to the 2026 season, but if Arthur Smith is still calling plays somewhere he will undoubtedly bring C-Patt along. This will assuredly lead to one random blow-up week and a huge heap of nothing else.
Austin Ekeler is clearly in the twilight of his career, but as was shown last season he can still be effective when carefully managed.
Advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
Despite diminished ability after contact (YAC/Att) and in breaking tackles, Ekeler still managed a robust 4.8 YPC. This was largely due to a pristine 3.0 yards before contact per attempt (YBP/Att), easily the best of his career. He also continued to excel as a receiver with the best yards after contact per reception (YAC/R) of his career. Though he’s decidedly slowed down, there is metaphorical tread left on his tires due to a lighter workload than most seven-year players. I certainly wouldn’t be counting on it, but crazier things than a 31-year-old pass-catching specialist excelling have happened.
Jamaal Williams got away with it until he didn’t. He parlayed a career-best (by far) 17 touchdowns into a fairly lucrative contract with New Orleans, where he’s languished to the tune of 3.1 YPC. He should already be off rosters for 2025, and 2026 is out of the question.
After never meeting a season that didn’t result in 5.0 YPC, Edwards slowed to 4.1 YPC in 2023, and then crashed to 3.6 YPC in 2024. As such he’s not a player I’m keeping my eye on moving forward.
The Mid-Career Vets
Between Edwards and the 2022 rookies are Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Michael Carter, Salvon Ahmed and Zack Moss. Accordingly, this section will be brief.
Current Saint Edwards-Helaire was the only ball carrier selected in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. And while it’s great that he’s back near where he played his college ball at LSU, it was by way of the Kansas City Chiefs releasing him during the 2024 season after he was effectively replaced by Pacheco and Hunt. He’s probably not rosterable, but at least has the draft pedigree.
Moss seemed to have a shot with the Bengals, but was injured and replaced by impressive second-year player Chase Brown and concluded the season with only 97 touches. While he shouldn’t change the surname on his jersey to Pipp just yet, it’s hard to see 2025 providing anything different. That will potentially mean seven years in the league and only two seasons with more than 100 carries, yielding a CV that doesn’t not exactly scream “hire me in 2026.”
Best of the Rest
Emari Demercado had a reasonable run as an injury fill-in during the 2023 season, but fell back behind James Conner in 2024. Perhaps he can perform similarly moving forward, but he’s not a player I’m rostering as I wait to find out, and I doubt he’ll move the needle in advance of 2026.
Sincere McCormick had begun to wrest control of the Las Vegas backfield from Ameer Abdullah prior to suffering a season-ending injury in week 15. Unfortunately we’ve heard this song too many times before – undrafted free agents need to truly burst onto the scene to retain staying power in advance of the next rookie draft class. With only a couple solid games to his name, McCormick likely moves back to the pack in 2025, imperiling his odds for 2026.
Snap data courtesy of 4for4.com
Tyler Goodson had a solid collegiate career and is an acceptable pass catcher, but is likely too small to get significant run. A best-case scenario is he parlays a pass-catching role in 2025 into one moving forward.
Measurables courtesy of Mockdraftable
Keaton Mitchell never quite got right after succumbing to a torn ACL in his rookie season, only managing 16 largely inefficient touches last season. Still, given another off-season to heal up, he could potentially overtake Justice Hill for the team’s RB2 position. It’s important to remember that he had a great collegiate career, can catch passes, and runs like the wind. There exists a scenario where he can turn into an Alvin Kamara-lite type of big play ball carrier, though it will certainly be a circuitous path there as he will again sit behind Henry in 2025.
Stats courtesy of Sports Reference.
Last up is Sean Tucker, who most recently was found functioning as Tampa Bay’s RB3. He had a couple of big games, but the only three times he had more than five carries last season were in games decided by at least 23 points. With 62 opportunities as compared to a rookie year 17, a cockeyed optimist could say he’s moving in the right direction. But the NFL is a “what have you done for me lately” league, and Tucker is now over two years removed from his collegiate dominance at Syracuse. He’s a player I’m monitoring, but not rostering.
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Jordan Love and Jordan Addison - April 22, 2025
- Forgotten Dynasty Veterans: Bottom Tier - April 21, 2025
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Malik Nabers and Isiah Pacheco - April 15, 2025
