Past/Present/Future Rookie Pick Value: 2025 Early 3rd

Tez Johnson | Syndication: The Register Guard

Justin Taylor Posted On February 25, 2025

It is almost that time of year again: rookie drafts are on the horizon. Rebuilders are full of glee as they hoard their picks, while contenders are scheming how they can pry some of those picks away, and dynasty players everywhere are champing at the bit to draft their favorite prospect.

In this series, the Dynasty League Football team will be taking a look at four pick sections of a dynasty rookie draft to give a comprehensive view of those picks by analyzing consensus picks of the past, the potential options for this year, and what the picks are worth on the trade market. For this series, we will be focusing on superflex formats.

Historical Consensus Picks 9-12

2024

3.01 – JJ McCarthy, QB MIN
3.02 – MarShawn Lloyd, RB GB
3.03 – Audric Estime, RB DEN
3.04 – Jalen McMillan, WR TB

2023

3.01 – Israel Abanikanda, RB NYJ
3.02 – Marvin Mims, WR DEN
3.03 – Kenny McIntosh, RB SEA
3.04 – DeWayne McBride, RB MIN

2022

3.01 – Jalen Tolbert, WR DAL
3.02 – Jerome Ford, RB CLE
3.03 – Jalen Wydermyer, TE BUF
3.04 – Zamir White, RB LV

As you can see from these past drafts, things can get really interesting when you get to the third round, especially when you are taking mock draft rankings from before the NFL Draft actually occurs.

The beginning of the third round in dynasty rookie mock drafts is a nice place to land players who fall for unknown reasons in your draft or got lower draft capital than previously expected.

The 2024 draft is a good example of this. When quarterback JJ McCarthy became a first-round pick by the Minnesota Vikings last year, he went from a third-round rookie pick to a late first-round pick.

Running back MarShawn Lloyd was mixed in with the second tier of running backs last season, but when the Green Bay Packers selected him in the third round, as RB4 off the board, this helped push Lloyd into the mid-second round in most drafts.

Wide receiver Jalen McMillan was a different example. He was getting a decent amount of buzz before the draft, but when he was drafted in the third round by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, his value fell flat as many managers wondered how many touches he would get on a team with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. When Godwin got hurt and McMillan got his chance, he made the most of it. In the end he was a terrific value in the third round.

Going back to 2023, running back Israel Abanikanda got drafted by the New York Jets to play behind Breece Hall, hurting his value. Marvin Mims was a nice find in the third round for the Denver Broncos and he is a player most dynasty managers are hoping will break out with more opportunities in 2025.

An example of how dreadful things can go in the third round is tight end Jalen Wydermyer. Expected to be drafted in the mid rounds, Wydermyer had a terrible showing at the combine showing very below-average athletic traits. He eventually went undrafted and had to sign with the Buffalo Bills as a free agent. He is already out of the league.

2025 Potential Options

Xavier Restrepo, WR Miami
Matthew Golden, WR Texas
Tez Johnson, WR Oregon
Devin Neal, RB Kansas
Ollie Gordon, RB Oklahoma State
Cam Skattebo, RB Arizona State
Dylan Sampson, RB Tennessee
RJ Harvey, RB Central Florida
Mason Taylor, TE LSU
Harold Fannin, TE Bowling Green
Quinn Ewers, QB Texas
Jaxson Dart, QB Ole Miss

This year, the range of players who might be available here is exciting. This spot in the draft really shows the strengths of a deep class of running backs and tight ends.

There are a lot of players from this group who will be in my queue come draft day. If you miss out on the top-end running backs in this class, I think you might be okay. There are a good 15-20 RBs in this class who could make a fantasy impact in the next few years.

Devin Neal is ranked in this group, but I would be shocked if he is still around at this point in drafts. I was getting him here a month ago, but he is a player on the rise and is now going closer to the early to mid-second round in some recent mocks I have been in.

I have seen Ollie Gordon, Cam Skattebo, Dylan Sampson, and RJ Harvey get drafted in a variety of spots. They could really go in any order. All will be hot commodities if they make it this far in drafts.

Harold Fannin and Mason Taylor are currently going in the early third round, but by the time the draft rolls around, I could see both of these players solidly in the second round. They are both only 20 years old with massive upsides, especially in tight-end premium leagues.

The quarterback position is a bit of a mess right now. The class is getting dinged for being bad with few high-quality starters. I would expect both quarterbacks to go closer to the top of the second round in fantasy drafts if they can get at least day two draft capital.

Quinn Ewers has been in the spotlight for years, but his career at Texas was up and down. Some people love him. Some say he is extremely over-hyped. Does he get drafted in the first or second round? This will greatly determine if he is a second or third-round pick in superflex leagues.

The same goes for Jaxson Dart. He has shot up draft boards in the last month and looks to possibly be QB2 or QB3 in this draft class. If he is drafted as such, this spot is way too low for him in superflex leagues, but he is probably in the right spot in 1QB leagues.

Wide receiver is not very deep this year. If you want one of the receivers in the top-two tiers this is probably the latest you can wait. Matthew Golden is starting to get first-round hype, if that happens, he won’t be available here. Tez Johnson and Xavier Restrepo might slip this far in your drafts if they both fall to the third round in the NFL drafts. But they are most likely going to be the last available receivers in the top ten in this draft class.

Trade Value

Knowing what each draft spot or prospect is potentially worth is key in dynasty leagues. It is important to know what these picks or players are worth on the trade market. This will help you to find possible trade scenarios whether you are looking to acquire picks or players. Using the Dynasty League Football Trade Analyzer, here are some potential options each pick could be traded for right now.

3.01 (77.5 Trade Value)

Rashod Bateman, WR BAL
Rachaad White, RB TB
Quentin Johnston, WR LAC

3.02 (74.0 Trade Value)

D’Andre Swift, RB CHI
Jakobi Meyers, WR LV
Tyjae Spears, RB TEN

3.03 (70.5 Trade Value)

Jonathon Brooks, RB CAR
James Conner, RB ARI
Marquise Brown, WR KC

3.04 (67.0 Trade Value)

Stefon Diggs, WR HOU
Tucker Kraft, TE GB
Tank Bigsby, RB JAC

You have to decide where your team currently sits in your dynasty league. Are you in win-now mode or rebuild? Do you have a nice mix of each, veterans, and young players? Getting proven players is always ideal over taking a long shot on a rookie third-round pick.

At this point you are probably going to have to buy older players who have been productive but are on the backside of their careers such as Stefan Diggs or James Connor.

Another option is younger players who have dealt with injury or have maybe disappointed to this point in their career like Quinton Johnston or Jonathon Brooks.

I’m trying to acquire early third-round picks because I like the depth in this class. But if I want a player who can produce I’m probably going after Jakobi Meyers. If I want high upside and have the time to wait on a player, then Brooks is the guy I’m targeting to trade and stash on my injured reserve for the season. Getting a former first-round pick for a third-round pick is nice value.

Dynasty Recommendations

Third-round rookie picks don’t typically have a high-hit rate in fantasy football. But if there was ever a year to load up on late second and early third-round picks, I think this is the one. I love the depth of this class. I’m going to be eyeing tight ends if they fall to this range. I don’t think Fannin or Taylor will make it this far, but if they do scoop them up.

Also, if you missed out on running back in the first or second round, I definitely want to get one here. This is also the type of year that it might be smart to double and even triple-tap RB. This is a loaded class. Some of these guys won’t pan out, but a decent amount have a good chance to make an early impact. I want to take as many swings at running back as I can this year.

If you went running back early in the draft or if the second round sees a bunch of RBs fly off the board, keep an eye out for receivers that might drop in the process. It might be possible to get a steal here. I was able to snag Michael Pittman and Kenny Golladay at this spot in past drafts. Tez Johnson is a receiver I really like in this round. I also think we will have some late risers at the WR position once the draft happens. This could be a nice spot to take a chance on a receiver.

Third-round picks carry a significant amount more value than fourth-round picks typically do even though there might not be a lot that separates the players in each round. If you want to try to trade for a solid veteran, this is a good pick to move. You probably won’t get much traction offering a fourth-round pick.

At this point in the draft, I like to target players I had going earlier who have fallen. I also want to take a shot on a player who maybe was drafted later in the NFL Draft, but has a nice path to playing time.

Author
Recent Posts

Justin Taylor

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Owner of JT Walker's Brewery and Project 47 Smokehouse in Central Illinois. Bachelor's Degree in Sports Journalism from the University of Missouri-Columbia and Master's Degree in Sports Broadcasting from Syracuse University. Spent 10 years covering football at every level. Also spent seven years coaching High School football as a Defensive Coordinator. I play in every type of fantasy football format.