Off-Season Mock Drafts: Superflex Rookie Draft
Oh boy! We’ve hit what has proven to be many people’s favorite time of the year – rookie draft season. This was a 12-team superflex rookie mock, the first I participated in this off-season. I think it started pretty chalky, but as we got deeper, it deviated from the script a little bit. Nothing shocking, but that is to be expected in these early mocks and with no ADP yet. Enough of my blabbing – let’s see how things shook out in this first rookie mock of the off-season.
Round One
Even in superflex, I have yet to see any mocks where Ashton Jeanty wasn’t the 1.01. I’m probably dating myself, and I might not even be 100% accurate, but I can’t recall a more locked-in 1.01 position player since Ezekiel Elliot back in 2016.
Assuming Cam Ward is the NFL 1.01, it will be hard for people not to make him the 1.02 behind Jeanty, and that’s what we saw here. We went back-to-back quarterbacks, with Shedeur Sanders next. I’m not sold on him as a prospect, so if I’m picking outside of the top three this year, I’d love to see it since someone I actually want is going to fall to me outside of the top three.
Despite being a deep and well-thought-of running back class, in the next four picks, we get a pretty locked-in group of three receivers plus a quarterback mixed in. Jaxson Dart is the QB, and I prefer him to Sanders. The top three receivers are pretty universally Tetairoa McMillan, Luther Burden, and Emeka Egbuka in some order.
And now we finally get back to running backs, wrapping up the round with four of the final picks being used on running backs. TreVeyon Henderson, Omarion Hampton, Quinshon Judkins, and Kaleb Johnson round out an early top five at the running back position. And we squeeze in our first tight end, too, with Tyler Warren at 1.10.
It is early, but I suspect this will be the same top-12 in every superflex draft. Barring any unforeseen developments at the combine or huge surprises in the NFL draft, I don’t see how anyone falls out of this top-12 or how anyone else climbs into it. This is likely it. If you’ve got first-round picks, it’s good to know that you’re getting one of these guys.
Round Two
And here we are. The clear top-12 is gone, so let’s see what direction this goes in the next 12 picks. Spoiler alert: I have very little opinion on many of these guys yet, as I’m getting to know them just like you are.
Since it’s superflex, I’ll get the quarterbacks out of the way. Our lone signal-caller, Jalen Milroe went 2.05, which sounds about right, assuming he goes on day two of the draft in an average landing spot. He is the lone exception I could see squeezing into round one if he were to go, let’s say, to the Raiders with pick 37 or the Giants with pick 34.
We saw a duo of tight ends this round, with Colston Loveland at 2.02 and Elijah Arroyo at 2.09. Arroyo might be a surprise as TE3 to many, but he’s gaining some steam and should be on your radar, although I still have Harold Fanin Jr. ahead of him myself.
There were five receivers drafted and four running backs taken in the second round. Of the five receivers, Travis Hunter deserves a bit of attention. He is going to be drafted as a defensive back, and wherever he lands, they’ll they’ll have a package of offensive plays for him. I understand the upside, but I’m having a hard time choking down the second-round price on a player who will get (maybe) five to ten offensive snaps a game. I might be willing to pull the trigger in best-ball leagues, but there is no way I would take him this early knowing what we know as of right now. The remaining four receivers, Epic Ayomanor, Tre Harris, Matthew Golden, and Isaiah Bond seem to be the consensus “next four” once we get the first-rounders out of the way.
In the backfield, we saw Devin Neal, Ollie Gordon, Cam Skattebo, and Trevor Etienne. I suspect that is going to change in the coming months. The combine and draft capital will undoubtedly shake up the order of second-tier running backs.
Round Three
Round three! I’ve done a few mocks already, and it seems like there are some values to be had in the third. My pick in this round was Quinn Ewers at 3.08, and at this point in the process, I think I’m getting a steal. It has been widely reported that Ewers turned down an $8 million NIL deal to leave college and enter the NFL. Here is my thinking: despite this being a “down” year for quarterbacks and next year being a “better” draft class, Ewers would be an idiot to turn that money down unless he knew he was going to be higher thought of in NFL circles than he is in fantasy circles. According to Forbes.com, over the course of a four-year contract, first-round picks are expected to make nearly $10 million. Second-round picks are looking at somewhere between $9 million and $6.3 million- over four years. Third-rounders make about $5.5 million, and even Mr. Irrelevant hauls in nearly $4 million. All that is to say, if Ewers turned down $8 million to stay and party in college for a single year, I can’t imagine he would do that hoping to land a four-year, $4 million deal in the NFL. He’s going earlier than many of us think, making him a steal at 3.08.
Six wide receivers went in round three. Jayden Higgins, Tez Johnson, Xavier Restrepo, Jaylin Noel, Jack Bech, and Savion Williams. As of this writing, it is a very “third-round receiver dart-throw” group. They’ve all got some upside, and they’ve all got some warts that warrant them falling into the third, too. You could make a case for any of them to have the most upside among each other. I’m way more interested in this group of running backs than the receivers. Dylan Sampson, Bhayshul Tuten, Damien Martinez, and James Jordan are much more appealing to me (well, not Jordan; I know absolutely nothing about him yet). The first three could all steal touches in almost every NFL backfield. I would much rather throw a dart on a running back in the back half of the 2025 draft class. There are better players, and we see late-round running backs get more opportunities than late-round receivers.
Round Four
Let’s close this first look at rookie drafts with the fourth and final round by repeating what I just said about the third: give me the running back upside over the receiver upside this year. RJ Harvey, Brashard Smith, LeQuint Allen, Raheim Sanders, DJ Giddens, and Jaydon Blue are a decent group for nearly going undrafted. In the right system, Smith, Sanders, Giddens, and Blue can be fantasy viable in year one.
On the other hand, looking at the wide receivers, Tory Horton and Jalen Royals are the only receivers in the final round, and although I like Royals, I would still rather have the four running backs I mentioned above.
Of course, being superflex, we’ll always see some quarterbacks go late. Here, Dillon Gabriel, Tyler Shough, and Will Howard were the lucky trio. In a vacuum, I kinda like Gabriel and Howard, and I could like Howard a lot more following the NFL draft. He could potentially be a long-term starter on a team like Seattle once their aging starter moves on.
The draft concluded with another tight end, Taylor Mason. I think Mason is fine, but there are maybe four other options at the position I can see moving ahead of him as we near the end of summer.
Overall, this mock went pretty smoothly, with very few “wow” moments. I would bookmark this, as I suspect this mock will be pretty accurate when we look back in two, four, six, or ten months. I’ll be writing about a single quarterback mock next, and that went way, way, way off the rails several times. While that isn’t uncommon in the early mock drafts, a draft like this is refreshing when you have to go through nearly 100 mocks every off-season. I hope you enjoyed this first look at the incoming rookie class. Keep checking back; there will be a lot more to come as this series progresses.
- Off-Season Mock Drafts: Final Rookie Trends - May 31, 2025
- Off-Season Mock Drafts: Best Ball ADP, Part II: Deep Dive - May 24, 2025
- A Hater’s Guide to the 2025 Rookie Tight End Class - May 22, 2025
Oh boy! We’ve hit what has proven to be many people’s favorite time of the year – rookie draft season. This was a 12-team superflex rookie mock, the first I participated in this off-season. I think it started pretty chalky, but as we got deeper, it deviated from the script a little bit. Nothing shocking, but that is to be expected in these early mocks and with no ADP yet. Enough of my blabbing – let’s see how things shook out in this first rookie mock of the off-season.
Round One
Even in superflex, I have yet to see any mocks where Ashton Jeanty wasn’t the 1.01. I’m probably dating myself, and I might not even be 100% accurate, but I can’t recall a more locked-in 1.01 position player since Ezekiel Elliot back in 2016.
Assuming Cam Ward is the NFL 1.01, it will be hard for people not to make him the 1.02 behind Jeanty, and that’s what we saw here. We went back-to-back quarterbacks, with Shedeur Sanders next. I’m not sold on him as a prospect, so if I’m picking outside of the top three this year, I’d love to see it since someone I actually want is going to fall to me outside of the top three.
Despite being a deep and well-thought-of running back class, in the next four picks, we get a pretty locked-in group of three receivers plus a quarterback mixed in. Jaxson Dart is the QB, and I prefer him to Sanders. The top three receivers are pretty universally Tetairoa McMillan, Luther Burden, and Emeka Egbuka in some order.
And now we finally get back to running backs, wrapping up the round with four of the final picks being used on running backs. TreVeyon Henderson, Omarion Hampton, Quinshon Judkins, and Kaleb Johnson round out an early top five at the running back position. And we squeeze in our first tight end, too, with Tyler Warren at 1.10.
It is early, but I suspect this will be the same top-12 in every superflex draft. Barring any unforeseen developments at the combine or huge surprises in the NFL draft, I don’t see how anyone falls out of this top-12 or how anyone else climbs into it. This is likely it. If you’ve got first-round picks, it’s good to know that you’re getting one of these guys.
Round Two
And here we are. The clear top-12 is gone, so let’s see what direction this goes in the next 12 picks. Spoiler alert: I have very little opinion on many of these guys yet, as I’m getting to know them just like you are.
Since it’s superflex, I’ll get the quarterbacks out of the way. Our lone signal-caller, Jalen Milroe went 2.05, which sounds about right, assuming he goes on day two of the draft in an average landing spot. He is the lone exception I could see squeezing into round one if he were to go, let’s say, to the Raiders with pick 37 or the Giants with pick 34.
We saw a duo of tight ends this round, with Colston Loveland at 2.02 and Elijah Arroyo at 2.09. Arroyo might be a surprise as TE3 to many, but he’s gaining some steam and should be on your radar, although I still have Harold Fanin Jr. ahead of him myself.
There were five receivers drafted and four running backs taken in the second round. Of the five receivers, Travis Hunter deserves a bit of attention. He is going to be drafted as a defensive back, and wherever he lands, they’ll they’ll have a package of offensive plays for him. I understand the upside, but I’m having a hard time choking down the second-round price on a player who will get (maybe) five to ten offensive snaps a game. I might be willing to pull the trigger in best-ball leagues, but there is no way I would take him this early knowing what we know as of right now. The remaining four receivers, Epic Ayomanor, Tre Harris, Matthew Golden, and Isaiah Bond seem to be the consensus “next four” once we get the first-rounders out of the way.
In the backfield, we saw Devin Neal, Ollie Gordon, Cam Skattebo, and Trevor Etienne. I suspect that is going to change in the coming months. The combine and draft capital will undoubtedly shake up the order of second-tier running backs.
Round Three
Round three! I’ve done a few mocks already, and it seems like there are some values to be had in the third. My pick in this round was Quinn Ewers at 3.08, and at this point in the process, I think I’m getting a steal. It has been widely reported that Ewers turned down an $8 million NIL deal to leave college and enter the NFL. Here is my thinking: despite this being a “down” year for quarterbacks and next year being a “better” draft class, Ewers would be an idiot to turn that money down unless he knew he was going to be higher thought of in NFL circles than he is in fantasy circles. According to Forbes.com, over the course of a four-year contract, first-round picks are expected to make nearly $10 million. Second-round picks are looking at somewhere between $9 million and $6.3 million- over four years. Third-rounders make about $5.5 million, and even Mr. Irrelevant hauls in nearly $4 million. All that is to say, if Ewers turned down $8 million to stay and party in college for a single year, I can’t imagine he would do that hoping to land a four-year, $4 million deal in the NFL. He’s going earlier than many of us think, making him a steal at 3.08.
Six wide receivers went in round three. Jayden Higgins, Tez Johnson, Xavier Restrepo, Jaylin Noel, Jack Bech, and Savion Williams. As of this writing, it is a very “third-round receiver dart-throw” group. They’ve all got some upside, and they’ve all got some warts that warrant them falling into the third, too. You could make a case for any of them to have the most upside among each other. I’m way more interested in this group of running backs than the receivers. Dylan Sampson, Bhayshul Tuten, Damien Martinez, and James Jordan are much more appealing to me (well, not Jordan; I know absolutely nothing about him yet). The first three could all steal touches in almost every NFL backfield. I would much rather throw a dart on a running back in the back half of the 2025 draft class. There are better players, and we see late-round running backs get more opportunities than late-round receivers.
Round Four
Let’s close this first look at rookie drafts with the fourth and final round by repeating what I just said about the third: give me the running back upside over the receiver upside this year. RJ Harvey, Brashard Smith, LeQuint Allen, Raheim Sanders, DJ Giddens, and Jaydon Blue are a decent group for nearly going undrafted. In the right system, Smith, Sanders, Giddens, and Blue can be fantasy viable in year one.
On the other hand, looking at the wide receivers, Tory Horton and Jalen Royals are the only receivers in the final round, and although I like Royals, I would still rather have the four running backs I mentioned above.
Of course, being superflex, we’ll always see some quarterbacks go late. Here, Dillon Gabriel, Tyler Shough, and Will Howard were the lucky trio. In a vacuum, I kinda like Gabriel and Howard, and I could like Howard a lot more following the NFL draft. He could potentially be a long-term starter on a team like Seattle once their aging starter moves on.
The draft concluded with another tight end, Taylor Mason. I think Mason is fine, but there are maybe four other options at the position I can see moving ahead of him as we near the end of summer.
Overall, this mock went pretty smoothly, with very few “wow” moments. I would bookmark this, as I suspect this mock will be pretty accurate when we look back in two, four, six, or ten months. I’ll be writing about a single quarterback mock next, and that went way, way, way off the rails several times. While that isn’t uncommon in the early mock drafts, a draft like this is refreshing when you have to go through nearly 100 mocks every off-season. I hope you enjoyed this first look at the incoming rookie class. Keep checking back; there will be a lot more to come as this series progresses.
- Off-Season Mock Drafts: Final Rookie Trends - May 31, 2025
- Off-Season Mock Drafts: Best Ball ADP, Part II: Deep Dive - May 24, 2025
- A Hater’s Guide to the 2025 Rookie Tight End Class - May 22, 2025
