Past/Present/Future Rookie Pick Value: 2025 Late 4th
It’s almost that time of year again: rookie drafts are on the horizon. Rebuilders are full of glee as they hoard their picks, while contenders are scheming how they can pry some of those picks away, and dynasty players everywhere are chomping at the bit to draft their favorite prospect.
In this series, the Dynasty League Football team will be taking a look at four-pick sections of a dynasty rookie draft to give a comprehensive view of those selections by analyzing the consensus from the past, the potential options for this year, and what the picks are worth on the trade market. For this series, we’ll be focusing on superflex formats.
Historical Consensus Picks 9-12
2024
- 4.09 – Jase McClellan, RB ATL
- 4.10 – Cody Schrader, RB SF
- 4.11 – Luke McCaffrey, WR WAS
- 4.12 – Spencer Rattler, QB NO
2023
- 4.09 – Sean Tucker, RB TB
- 4.10 – Xavier Hutchinson, WR HOU
- 4.11 – Chris Rodriguez, RB WAS
- 4.12 – Parker Washington, WR JAC
2022
- 4.09 – Jerome Ford, RB CLE
- 4.10 – Tyler Badie, RB BAL
- 4.11 – Daniel Bellinger, TE NYG
- 4.12 – Jeremy Ruckert, TE NYJ
I’m going to be honest, this list of players leaves a lot to be desired. It’s not surprising that the players selected 45th-48th don’t typically return startable fantasy production. When you get this deep into the draft the talent falls off a cliff.
The only two players that have produced as a startable fantasy asset are Jerome Ford and Parker Washington, but even these two only reached that status due to multiple injuries in front of them on the depth chart. But these situations are the exception and not the rule. In this range of the draft, you’re just throwing darts at players and hoping one hits somewhere remotely near the bullseye.
2025 Potential Options
- Woody Marks, RB USC
- Pat Bryant, WR Illinois
- Raheim Sanders, RB South Carolina
- Terrance Ferguson, TE Oregon
- Ricky White, WR UNLV
- Jarquez Hunter, RB Auburn
- Elijah Arroyo, TE Miami (FL)
- Jaylin Noel, WR Iowa State
The list of potential options in the 2025 draft are all over the spectrum with a ton of skill position players. However, there are no quarterbacks present on this list because of the weakness of this class.
This is the area of the draft where I want to take chances on running backs in good spots and athletic tight ends. I avoid wide receivers in this range because usually, this is the WR18 of the class who will surely be buried on a depth chart. Instead, I want running backs like Tyrone Tracy Jr who have a much clearer path to fantasy relevancy.
I also want to take swings on tight ends that test well at the NFL combine like we saw with Daniel Bellinger a few years ago. The beauty of selecting a tight end here is that you’re looking at the TE5 in the class compared to the 20th-best player at their position.
Trade Value
Knowing which prospects are worthy of being selected with these dynasty rookie picks is only half of the battle. It’s also important to know what these picks are worth on the trade market. This will help you to find worthwhile trades if you’re not as interested in the prospects available when you’re up to pick or don’t want to pay the price to trade up for a pick to get a prospect you really like. Using the Dynasty League Football Trade Analyzer, here are some potential options each pick could be traded for right now.
4.09 (10.80 Trade Value)
- Noah Gray, TE KC
- Ty Chandler, RB MIN
- Calvin Austin, WR PIT
4.10 (10.16 Trade Value)
- Rondale Moore, WR ATL
- Jonathan Mingo, WR DAL
- Kenneth Gainwell, RB PHI
4.11 (9.53 Trade Value)
- Curtis Samuel, WR BUF
- Jalen Tolbert, WR DAL
- Noah Fant, TE SEA
4.12 (8.89 Trade Value)
- Luke Schoonmaker, TE DAL
- Gus Edwards, RB LAC
- Elijah Mitchell, RB SF
Just like the potential 2024 options, the NFL players who are valued similarly to these rookie draft picks are not the most exciting. I feel like every player on this list is exactly the same in the sense that they’re all roughly fourth-year players who have gotten plenty of opportunities to prove themselves but never did anything with their chances. These are classic “roster cloggers” who will never be valued dynasty assets.
Dynasty Recommendations
Throughout this series, we’ll be analyzing each individual pick and giving our recommendations on what to do with each one. However, looking at these four specific picks for this article as a unit makes more sense because the individual rankings and tiers this far down the board are in flux.
I’m not really looking to move my fourth-round picks this year for veteran players. Instead, I’d much rather use them as trade-up pieces to target players I really like. A lot of people are talking about the depth of this running back class and you could use this to your advantage if other managers in your league fall in love with multiple late-round sleepers.
Finally, if you’re going to use your pick to select a rookie, shoot for upside. I’ve said it a million times but it’s easy to draft super athletic tight ends that were selected in the third or fourth round. It’s where the majority of today’s elite TEs were found; Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Mark Andrews, Dalton Schultz, and Jake Ferguson were all drafted in the third round or later of the NFL draft. This draft will have a ton of these particular guys like Terrence Ferguson, Mason Taylor, and Elijah Arroyo.
If you’re not going with a tight end here, I think you should be targeting running backs that landed on teams with clear paths to playing time. Tyrone Tracy is the poster child for this approach. He went on day three of the NFL Draft, but he had very little competition in front of him on the depth chart and he had elite college numbers. Targeting players with that profile in this range is key to maximizing the value of fourth-round rookie picks.
- Dynasty Running Back Danger Rankings: At Risk Tier - April 19, 2025
- 2025 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Drafts: A View from the 1.04 - April 18, 2025
- 2025 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Profile: Jordan James, RB Oregon - April 17, 2025
