Five Overvalued Dynasty Wide Receivers

It has not been a banner year for wide receivers.

Check any ADP list from August, and you will cringe at how the top receivers have performed. CeeDee Lamb has been saddled with Cooper Rush for much of the season. Tyreek Hill has dealt with the absence of Tua Tagovailoa and has not been his usual elite self even when Tua has played. Tick down the list, and you will see seasons ruined by injury, woeful quarterback play, or a combination of both. It has been a year for running backs to thrive.

Of course, this does not mean receivers are no longer an excellent long-term investment. Performances tend to ebb and flow, and receivers could come roaring back with a monster 2025. Some, however, may be overvalued in the dynasty community, and I will analyze some of those I feel are being overhyped below.

Marvin Harrison Jr, ARI

DLF November ADP: 7

My Rank: 14

My rank for Marvin Harrison Jr. is still lofty, placing him in the early second round of most formats. He has not, however, been your proverbial generational prospect, one who is a man amongst boys from the jump. In both redraft and dynasty formats, he has been a disappointment at ADP.

Harrison Jr. has failed to separate consistently and has never appeared to be on the same page as Kyler Murray. On the plus side, he could well hit double-digit touchdowns in what is largely considered a disappointing year. He still shows the ability to win at the catch point and the rapport with Murray should grow as they have more reps together. He has just fallen short of looking like a can’t-miss prospect and the young talent at receiver is fantastic, pushing him down my board. Year two could showcase a truly dominant perimeter receiver, but I would expect more solid, steady production from Harrison Jr. as opposed to the dominance we had hoped to see.

Chris Olave, NO

DLF November ADP: 18

My Rank: 40

My concerns with Chris Olave are largely due to health, as he sadly suffered his fifth football concussion, his fourth during his NFL career in a game last month against the Panthers. It feels likely he misses the rest of the season, and while the decision on his football future is his and his alone, the number of concussions has become concerning.

Beyond health question marks, Olave has been a good, yet not quite elite producer and few teams need a bigger reset than the Saints. Derek Carr is the classic too good to bench, not good enough to trust franchise quarterback, while the offense has crumbled as the Saints do their usual cap gymnastics to extend older players without replenishing their roster. There are too many question marks for me to select Olave in the first two rounds and I will let someone else assume the risk.

DeVonta Smith, PHI

DLF November ADP: 20

My Rank: 31

DeVonta Smith is a fantastic real-life player. He is also the clear number two in Philadelphia, and the situation is unlikely to change anytime soon given both AJ Brown and Smith have recently signed extensions. With Brown on the field, Smith has been productive yet without much of a ceiling.

Jalen Hurts is also never going to be a quarterback who throws for 4,500 yards, limiting the opportunity for multiple receivers to hit. Smith’s upside is baked in already at 20^th overall, a price too rich for me given the circumstances surrounding him. We know Smith can smash if Brown misses time, but I am not investing this premium of a pick on a contingency play.

Jayden Reed, GB

DLF November ADP: 27

My Rank: 44

When he gets the football, Jayden Reed flashes. He is a playmaker, be it in the intermediate passing game or as a versatile chess piece. There is no denying Reed is a unique talent, and we trust both Jordan Love and Matt LaFluer to take advantage of their playmakers.

The issue – and it is no secret – is Reed’s volume. The Packers have a deep receiver rotation and here in year two have yet to trust Reed with a full compliment of routes within the offense. It is possible Reed is just one of those players who routinely proves to be an outlier, eschewing volume concerns. But he may be more in the Deebo Samuel mold; a player who can provide special weeks or even one special season but is always a bit mercurial, leaving fantasy teams wanting more.

Deebo Samuel, SF

DLF November ADP: 42

My Rank: 72

Speaking of Deebo Samuel, I am a bit surprised to see him maintaining such a ranking in ADP. I do not blame Samuel for his modest 2024 season. The 49ers have been snakebitten all year, and I do not believe Samuel is anything close to fully healthy. I am willing to just call this a lost year for one of the game’s more unique weapons.

The injury concern, however, cannot be ignored. Deebo’s bruising, physical style is the key to his success and makes him incredibly fun to watch but it also leads to maladies which can linger and raise questions as to his career longevity. Samuel turns 29 this January, and his long-term standing in San Francisco is in question. The 49ers handed Brandon Aiyuk a massive deal, invested a first-round selection in Ricky Pearsall, and have Jauan Jennings ready to go as a stand-in for any receiver who misses time. With Brock Purdy poised to receive a big contract sometime soon, Samuel may be a player the 49ers explore moving on from. Deebo just has too many red flags and I would expect his off-season ADP to dip significantly.