Dynasty Trending Observations: Puka Nacua, Quentin Johnston, and Caleb Williams
It’s Thanksgiving week, which means we get more football earlier than usual. While you should be spending more time with family and friends, it’s also a good time to take stock of your dynasty teams. Below are this week’s trends and how you should handle them as we head into the playoffs.
Puka Diving
Puka Nacua's per route data not only is better than during his historic rookie season, it keeps getting better as Year 2 moves along.
The only player with a target per route run rate above 34% in a season over the past 10 years is Tyreek Hill in 2023. pic.twitter.com/0QIiyZDzMn
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 25, 2024
It’s been a bittersweet season for Puka Nacua and his dynasty managers. After missing most of the season due to injury, Nacua has led the Rams (and fantasy teams) the last five weeks, averaging over 111 receiving yards in games he finished (Nacua was ejected early against Seattle in Week Nine). On a team with former All-Pro Cooper Kupp, he’s been the clear alpha in the pecking order for Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford.
If anything, this last month has just validated Nacua’s record-breaking rookie season in 2023. He famously set new season-long records for rookie receivers, catching 105 balls for 1,486 yards. If that wasn’t enough, he also set the playoff rookie receiving record with 181 yards in a single game. In all, he finished as a top-five fantasy receiver in his rookie season, which is something dynasty dreams are made of.
Dynasty Impact: All of this should be enough reason to push Nacua towards the top of dynasty rankings. Yet, here we are.
You could argue that the injury setback Nacua’s value earlier this season but any questions about it impacting his play once he returned are gone. Currently, he’s ranked as just the 10th dynasty receiver, according to our DLF rankers. But why? He’s already had a better season than Garrett Wilson ever had (and might ever have at this point) and neither Marvin Harrison Jr nor Malik Nabers have come close to doing what Nacua did as a rookie. Outside of the truly elite triumvirate of Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and CeeDee Lamb, Nacua should be ahead of everyone else.
In the long term, the biggest impediment to Nacua’s dynasty value will be the Rams quarterback situation. As long as Matthew Stafford’s around, Nacua will be fine. But Stafford will turn 37 before next season and won’t last forever. Hopefully, coaching guru Sean McVay can find another stud to keep feeding Nacua. Until then, treat Nacua like the elite receiver he is.
Caleb Hits
CALEB WILLIAMS. WHAT A THROW 🔥 😱
(via @NFL)
pic.twitter.com/YBk24AqRhF— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) November 24, 2024
It’s funny what a new offensive coordinator can do to a young quarterback. In the two games since the Bears fired former offensive coordinator Shane Waldron (Who saw that coming? Literally, everyone), Williams has shown flashes of what made him the top overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. He had the best game of his career in Week 12 against a normally stout Vikings defense, throwing for 340 yards, two touchdowns, ran for 33 more yards, had zero turnovers, and was one of the top fantasy quarterbacks for the week.
It hasn’t exactly been long but still a strange trip for Williams. With sky-high expectations for the first overall pick, including what some called the best-supporting cast ever around him, Williams flopped. He looked anxious and had more games of throwing zero touchdowns than throwing at least one through his first nine games. Mercifully, the Bears got rid of one of the issues – the play-caller. Waldron was a curious choice after three sub-par years in Seattle where his offenses finished inside the top 20 in points just once. Luckily we didn’t have to wait the whole season for the Bears to make a change and there’s been an immediate difference. Specifically, Williams has taken off more than he was, racking up 70 rushing yards last week in Thomas Brown’s first game as the new play-caller. Williams is also throwing more screens which is piling up more yards – slowly but surely.
It’s a super small sample size but it could be a sign that Williams has turned the corner. How should dynasty managers view it?
Dynasty Impact: While it’s probably too late to make any deals in your dynasty league, these last few games have been the perception of Williams’s dynasty value this off-season. It was looking dicey through the first two months but he’s slid back into, at least, the ‘hold’ label if not a ‘buy.’
He was already trending that way before his mini breakout.
And next season should be even better. He’ll have an entire off-season to prepare plus a more experienced Rome Odunze at receiver to go along with DJ Moore (Keenan Allen looks washed). If Williams can put together a whole season that looks like the last two games, he’ll be a QB1 in both superflex and 1QB leagues.
Johnston Cold
Justin Herbert's full answer and support of Quentin Johnston:
"I think that's the tough part about the NFL. He's a playmaker. He's done an incredible job all year. You never want to see that. Just like when I throw an interception or when I miss a throw, he's gonna come up to me… pic.twitter.com/rDHL4oEaDe— Alex Insdorf (@alexinsdorf99) November 26, 2024
It was a rough night for Quentin Johnston and the Chargers. Not only did Los Angeles lose a close game against a team they could very well see again in the playoffs but Johnston only exacerbated his reputation for drops. He totaled three of them on five targets and laid an egg on the stat line. It ended a three-game touchdown streak for Johnston and was the first game all season he didn’t tally a reception.
This is a shame because Johnston had been in the middle of a quasi-bounce-back season. He failed to top 500 receiving yards his rookie season, scored just twice, and finished outside the top 75 receivers in fantasy scoring after being selected in the first round. But the arrival of coach Jim Harbaugh bought him a new lease on his NFL life and Johnston looked competent. He had already scored six times this season and his 16.1 YPC was almost five yards more than his YPC last year.
So after all the ups and downs, where do we put his dynasty value heading into next season?
Dynasty Impact: It truly has been a roller coaster when it comes to Johnston’s ADP. It dipped to the 60s in the off-season after the disappointing rookie season only to start rising again when he showed flashes of productivity.
Currently, Johnston’s ADP sits in the 40s which is also where he ranks in fantasy scoring through Week 12. But that seems generous, especially heading into next season. It’s not a secret that the Chargers need to add to the receiver room. They seem to have found a stud in Ladd McConkey but no one else screams ‘starter,’ not even Johnston. He’s a great complimentary piece that can stretch the field but not a workhorse that commands attention. If you’re a current Johnston dynasty manager, try to offload him as soon as the season ends and before the Chargers find his replacement.
- Dynasty Trending Observations: Jerry Jeudy, Garrett Wilson, and Brock Bowers - December 5, 2024
- Dynasty Trending Observations: Puka Nacua, Quentin Johnston, and Caleb Williams - November 28, 2024
- Dynasty Trending Observations: Bo Nix On Way Up, Panthers’ Confusing Running Game and Elite CeeDee Lamb - November 21, 2024
