Dynasty Mind: Succession Planning
The Dynasty Mind Series returns in 2024, with six brand new thought-provoking articles, designed to give you a new perspective and get you thinking differently about how to approach your dynasty leagues. The series will aid you with understanding the optimal philosophy, process, and game theory to help you implement an effective dynasty plan.
In the third article of the series I highlighted the concept of embracing risk, outlining the reasons why this is an important dynasty strategy, how to identify and classify risk, how to change the risk profile of a position, and the types of good and bad risk in dynasty.
In this article I’ll be focusing on the concept of succession planning – thinking proactively to stay ahead of the competition, making moves at the right time to protect the overall value of your dynasty rosters, and the various options available to bring these plans into action in the future.
Succession Planning
The concept of succession planning is all about making proactive moves ahead of a certain event, to set your team up for future success. This idea is most easily understood through the acquiring of a rookie or young dynasty asset as the succession plan to an aging veteran, preparing for the future and taking a long-term view in dynasty, allowing for a young player to replace the veteran at the stage of production decline. An alternative view on succession planning would be making a move for a younger veteran player, as the successor to the older veteran, a similar theme to acquiring the younger asset, but not seen as a traditional method of planning for the future.
Contenders holding Derrick Henry heading into 2024 could have pivoted to Jonathon Brooks – a move which looks a mistake at the current time (Credit: DLF ADP Over Time App)
The options for succession planning are simple – pivot from the veteran asset at a point before the production decline, or acquire an additional asset to the veteran before the decline – with a view to riding out the veteran into the sunset. The direct pivot would be crucial from a timing perspective, where the young asset has to be ready to deliver replacement fantasy production. The additional trade is a solid move in the sense you are less time-restricted, however, the loss of a roster spot negatively impacts flexibility.
An example of a good succession plan would be back in early 2023, acquiring a pre-breakout Trey McBride (a young asset with excellent talent and potential) as the succession plan to an aging veteran producer like Travis Kelce. Logically, the contending side could go and spend a luxury late second round pick to acquire McBride. Whilst, contending sides tend to focus on immediate production in their quest for a dynasty title, making the forward-thinking move is excellent as a succession plan – where you can trade away Kelce for a current late second, the same price you paid for McBride, with no net loss and starting over again with a potentially elite tight end.
An example of a bad succession plan would be a contending side entering this season, making a pivot away from Derrick Henry, adding an additional asset to move up in a rookie draft, and acquiring Jonathon Brooks. You could have told the story the end was near for Henry, he’s been proving the market wrong for years, hence a move to get younger, refresh, and pick up the number one rookie running back in Brooks. Where this becomes a bad succession plan is the type of move (a pivot as opposed to separate trade), Henry improving yet again and the delayed production arc of Brooks not being considered, as a rookie coming off of a major injury. The loss of Henry’s production on a contender would be catastrophic for their title challenge.
Developing succession plans for your aging assets is vital for longevity and maintaining your championship window. Failing to plan for the future will result in the loss of value selling an asset way past its best, a lack of leverage in trades when you’re scrambling for production to maintain contention, and more time / effort required to find a solution – when the replacement asset is more difficult to find at an attainable price. Consider who is the next asset you should begin succession planning for and the various options available.
Exit Strategies
The concept of creating an exit strategy is the plan to pivot away from an asset with concerns, linking in well with the idea of succession planning, and considering the different options available to make.
Think about aging assets who could be in danger of a production decline soon – what is the pivot move aka exit strategy to initiate? (Credit: DLF Trade Analyzer)
The common thought process when applying the exit strategy theory is to pivot from a veteran player who is coming to the end of his production curve, however, there are another number of options to consider the exit strategy for. Think about making the pivot from a risky boom-bust asset where you want to embrace a lower level of risk, a move away from an overachieving asset at peak value, or a rookie who still has name value but has underperformed so far in his dynasty career. The different pivot moves you can make for a dynasty asset with concerns include pivoting directly for another player, pivoting for draft capital or a combination of both.
An example of a good exit strategy would be the pivot from a dynasty asset a year early, where you protect against the decline in trade value at a later date by moving an asset close to its peak. Another positive exit strategy would be any logical move, such as moving from aging assets entering a rebuild or moving from a peak asset almost guaranteed to drop in value – such as an early 2024 CJ Stroud. Also, thinking of the greater context of portfolio dynasty, using an exit strategy to move within a set risk threshold or diversification is also a smart move to make. Effectively, future planning and executing an exit strategy to perfection has the ability to add value to the roster, set you up to compete at the right time and for the long-term, whilst also having the potential to negatively impact your opponents’ rosters.
An example of a bad exit strategy would be the opposite of the early pivot, leaving it too late to make the move and suffering a huge loss in trade value – in particular for a premium asset at the peak or entering the cliff stage of their career. Whilst there are scenarios where holding an asset beyond exit strategy can be an advantage (think contenders holding veteran running backs in 2024 – Henry, Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon), moving away from the player early maintains the overall value of your dynasty portfolio. Timing is crucial with the exit strategy, making the move too late can leave you in a tough position finding replacement-level fantasy production at a similar value. Also, no exit strategy can leave you struggling to find a plan too late in the game and any move gives leverage to your trade partner, as you become desperate as a repercussion of the lack of exit strategy. Think about which assets you should consider the pivot from and how you can plan to deliver the optimal exit strategy.
Anthony Richardson’s dynasty value tanked in October 2024, where an escape plan earlier would have been perfect to maintain the value of your dynasty roster (Credit: DLF ADP Over Time App)
Escape Plans
The final concept of succession planning is the art of the escape plan – making the pivot away from the asset as a sell-low type deal, whilst there is limited value remaining on the player before ultimately reaching rock-bottom value. The key to an effective escape plan is to be early to react to the decline in value and own up to the mistake. A key part of dynasty is learning from mistakes, with effectively delivering the escape plan improving your overall ability in dynasty.
An idea of a good escape plan would be Anthony Richardson in early 2024 – struggling in weeks two and three, before another injury in week four, eventually losing his starting job after further fantasy struggles in weeks seven and eight (before regaining the starting role entering week eleven. The escape plan would have been initiated in the period of week four to seven, with mild intrigue remaining in the dynasty market, however a significant value drop from his peak in the 2024 off-season. Whilst Richardson recaptured his starting job, the community is familiar with the failed stories of Trey Lance and Justin Fields, with history pointing Richardson on a similar pathway.
An idea of a bad escape plan would be the current state of Daniel Jones or Will Levis, a couple of starting quarterbacks who look almost certain to lose their jobs late in 2024 or entering 2025. The move to initiate the escape plan can be made now, however both are as low in value as possible for a starting quarterback. Both the Giants and Titans are on course for a high draft selection in 2025 – with the best either Jones or Levis could hope for would be a bridge quarterback next season. By making the pivot before now, you would have gained more value than the current market for both declining assets.
Timing is crucial for the escape plan, the longer you leave it the more value you lose. Overall you can lose value on an asset, with the knowledge a small loss with an escape plan is much more desirable than a huge loss by delaying your move. Also, it is important to understand an escape plan now can also become a buy-low opportunity in the future such as Sam Darnold or Baker Mayfield. Your view on a player now can alter drastically as their value drops to a reasonable market value. Think about the escape plan concept and consider which assets you should consider to apply the theory, to protect your dynasty rosters.
He is a keen supporter of mental health projects, where dynasty content is his coping strategy to remain in an optimal mindset.
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