Ten IDP Stats You Need To Know After Week Ten
And just like that we’re through ten weeks of the season, and this column has got to a hundred stats you need to know. Quick; how many can you remember?
1 A’Shawn Robinson has had the highest tackle rate at his position all year
He’s spent his whole career as one of those guys with high name recognition, who’s not that good. But for whatever reason he’s at least racking up tackle numbers this season as a Panther. He’s the blue dot on this chart. If you’re a regular reader of this column you can probably pick out Zach Allen too.
2 Nnamdi Madubuike is breaking weekly expectations
Last week this column pointed out that although Madubuike was historically reliable and consistent in 2023, his 2024 has not been in the same league at all. So of course he went out and bagged three sacks this week for a huge IDP week!
He’s still a good illustration of how our brains imprint patterns where there are none though. Last year he had a sack every week for months in a row. This season his sacks have been feast and famine. It doesn’t change who he is as a player. He is not naturally disposed to either of those extremes. We just like to try and overlay patterns.
3 YaYa Diaby’s finisher rate (5.3%) is about 6 times worse than Dante Fowler’s (29%)
Poor Diaby has just two sacks from 38 pressures (using PFF data). PFR has him on two sacks from 14 pressures, but that data is highly suspect. Using the PFF data Diaby has converted 5.3% of pressures into sacks, where the average for his peers is about 18% this season.
At the other end of the scale, Dante Fowler has converted almost one in three of his 31 pressures.
In your league, Fowler has likely scored far better than Diaby has, but the underlying metrics point to value being the other way entirely.
4 Trey Hendrickson recorded zero sacks this week, after four last week
Continuing the ongoing theme of how bad a stat sacks are. But sometimes extreme examples like this are interesting to look at.
In week nine, Hendrickson had 31 pass-rush snaps, created nine pressures, and converted four of them into sacks.
In week nine, he had 33 pass-rush snaps, created six pressures, and converted none of them into sacks.
Sacks are a rubbish stat.
5 Devin Lloyd recorded 17 tackles last week
12 solos and five assists is a great weekly haul for any LB. But it’s worth looking at how it fits into the context of Lloyd’s season so far.
Before this week he’d managed 11 total tackles once, and eight or fewer in every other game. We know that playing time is the biggest factor in LB tackles, but the weekly natural deviation is pretty big too.
6 Jack Campbell (jointly) led all Lions LBs in playing time for the first time this season
Campbell, like all young LBs, had a very tough transition from college into the NFL. As with almost everyone at the position coverage as a rookie was a disaster, and the Lions had to ration when he was on the field.
In year two he’s taken a significant leap, and he finds himself as the best LB on a team with high aspirations.
The nature of the NFL is changing. And it impacts hugely on IDP. A few years ago, LB was a commoditized position where investing in them was a bad approach. Now they’re valuable because of scarcity but often take time to develop into productive players.
7 Cornerback weekly vs seasonal tackle: volume correlation
This column has already referred to how different weekly production can be compared to that over more time. The next chart shows the relationship for corners this season between playing time and tackles. For the season so far, and for just week ten.
The key number is the correlation coefficient (highlighted in the box). A figure of 1.00 denotes a perfect correlation, and the 0.87 seasonal number implies an 87% relationship.
That’s great but easy. We know that tackles are generated by playing time.
But look at the weekly chart. That coefficient is just 0.48. The relationship is far less strong, and there are more outliers (in both directions) from the norm.
You can trust in simply playing every snap cornerback, but on a weekly basis, results will be up and down.
8 Alontae Taylor is the top pass-rushing corner in the NFL
A few years ago, looking for pass-rushing DBs was a big trend. This chart shows just how much Alontae Taylor stands out from other corners in sacks this season.
He’s racked up five sacks from just under 30 pass rush snaps. While no other corner has more than 2 sacks.
9 Jeremy Chinn has recorded 24 tackles in the last two weeks
That’s an average of 12 tackles per week. Before these games, he had 33 tackles in eight games. An average of just over four per game.
Chinn has not changed how he’s playing or being deployed. It’s just that weekly variance that we so often see.
But unlike most times, this is useful information. The Commanders have a clear strong/free safety split with Chinn as the guy in the box. We would expect him to record decent tackle numbers, but for whatever reason, so far he mostly had not in 2024. But he’s very startable.
10 Vonn Bell is no longer a confident IDP start
Bell has played in the NFL since 2016 (this is his ninth season as a pro) and has been an automatic, every-snap player for most of that time.
But in the last couple of games, the Bengals have been splitting the role between him and second-year Jordan Battle. Bell is a bit banged up (unsurprising for a ninth-year vet in week ten) so maybe this is about managing his health. But he’s also playing poorly, and in clear decline from his peak. Right now he’s a very risky start, and arguably not worth a roster spot in most leagues given the huge supply and flat distribution of IDP safeties.
- 2025 NFL Draft: IDP Strategy for Combined Offense and Defense Rookie Drafts - May 9, 2025
- Six Unrepeatable IDP Fantasy Football Stats from the 2024 Season - January 11, 2025
- Ten IDP Stats You Need to Know After Week 15 - December 21, 2024
