Dynasty Trending Observations: Chris Olave, Saquon Barkley, and Bryce Young
Social media was busy this week between the trade deadline, never-before-seen acrobatics, and more. Below are more noticeable trends and how they can alter your dynasty plans.
Chris Out of Water
Scary history for Chris Olave. Now has four known concussions in the NFL:
* October 2022
* November 2023
* October 2024
* Yesterday— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) November 4, 2024
One of the unfortunate realities of football is the risk of head injuries or, in some players’ cases, several. Saints receiver Chris Olave is officially one of those players who has to think about his playing future more immediately than most. After a scary hit in Week Nine, Olave suffered another concussion and will be further evaluated to determine when it will be safe for him to return. The post above mentions his history but, needless to say, it’s not good.
Olave has been among the best young receivers in the NFL since he entered the league in 2022. Drafted 11th overall, Olave has recorded 1,000-yard seasons in each of his first two years in the league and has been a top-25 fantasy receiver in both. It’s even more impressive when you consider the revolving doors of quarterbacks he’s had to work with in two-plus seasons including Andy Dalton, Jameis Winston, and Derek Carr. The chances are high that there will be another quarterback to add to the list next season after the Saints fired Head Coach Dennis Allen this week and will attempt a rebuild.
But a new coaching change would have been a reason for optimism for Olave which has now been scuttled thanks to another big hit. So how should dynasty managers feel about Olave with the big changes looming?
Dynasty Impact: The first priority is Olave’s health and hope for a speedy recovery. When he does return, dynasty managers will need to address his roster spot.
In terms of ADP, Olave always registered higher than his production would indicate. Not through any fault of his own but he didn’t have a top-10 fantasy season yet was viewed as a top-10 receiver.
Even before the latest concussion, Olave could have been viewed as a sell. Without knowing what the next Saints coaching regime looks like, it’s not a guarantee that the next solution at quarterback would be any better than what Olave has had. It might be hard to find a taker now with his return up in the air, but I would seek out a trade partner even if they took him off your hands at a discount.
Case of the Spins
SAQUON BARKLEY IS NOT OF THIS WORLD.
📺: #JAXvsPHI on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/UtCENDw6no— NFL (@NFL) November 3, 2024
I don’t think any article highlighting social media trends this week can go without the spin. Eagles running back Saquon Barkley broke the internet for a minute when he displayed his ballet skills on multiple Jaguars defenders. In a career that has included several ‘wow’ plays, this one might be the most remembered for the rest of Barkley’s career.
It also speaks to how dominant Barkley continues to be relatively late into his career. It wasn’t long ago that the Giants allowed Barkley’s rookie contract to expire which made him a free agent and sign with his hometown Eagles where he’s flourishing. We’re not even halfway through the season and Barkley has already totaled over 1,000 yards from scrimmage and scored eight times. He’s also second among running backs in fantasy points behind another free agent signing, Derrick Henry. It’s all roses this season for Barkley and the Eagles but how long will that last?
Dynasty Impact: For as long as Barley’s been in the league, he’s been considered a top-eight dynasty running back.
But despite the showing this season, I would still sell high on Barkley. If you’re in rebuild mode, sell him for a king’s ransom for a contender before your league deadline where he could win someone a championship by himself.
If you’re in the playoff hunt, certainly ride him out this season but look to move him after your fantasy playoffs conclude. He’ll be 28 entering next season and there will be a higher probability of a decline as the years wear on. Better to get out now before it’s too late.
Forever Young
The deadline came and went with Bryce Young still a Panther. But trade speculation will continue until Dave Canales commits to him and/or Young solidifies the QB spot.
That said, Tuesday was a W for Dan Morgan & Co.https://t.co/JoAcU9hOL1— Joe Person (@josephperson) November 5, 2024
Despite speculation that the Panthers might move on from former first overall pick Bryce Young at this year’s trade deadline, Young stayed put. We won’t know if the Panthers just didn’t see a price they liked or if they truly are committed to holding on to Young no matter what. But whatever the reason, Young is a Panther and will be until 2025.
It might have been more of a surprise a few weeks ago, immediately following Young’s benching. Young played just two games this season before the Panthers had seen enough and turned to veteran Andy Dalton. Of course, Carolina can’t have nice things and Dalton was injured which prompted Young to return to the starting lineup. And what happened? Young started playing better. Not great, but better. After not throwing a touchdown in either of those first two weeks he started, Young has thrown three touchdowns over the last two weeks including his third multi-touchdown game of his career. He still turned the ball over but at least he was making up for it with scoring drives.
So now that we know Young will stick around, how do we treat his dynasty value?
Dynasty Impact: The last two games are certainly a small sample size but Young has looked…competent. His completion percentage was higher than his career average; he hasn’t fumbled the ball at all this year after fumbling it 11 times his rookie season; and he’s won a game. In all, it’ll certainly buck the downward trend of his dynasty value.
Could a new team and coaching staff boost his dynasty value? Maybe. But the benching might have too. And his draft capital is such that it will buy him more time than most.
Young is not an option in 1QB dynasty leagues and never will be. However, in Superflex leagues, he could be a sneaky value. His cost is still super low but whether you’re a rebuilding team or a team in contention, giving up a low rookie pick for Young is a good hedge and certainly in deeper leagues. Certainly not a first or second-round pick but third or later for a former top draft pick in only their second year is a good value.
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